EXPLORING IMPACT OF MACRO ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON GDP OF PAKISTAN

Purpose-This research work explores the impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, real exchange rate and interest rate on GDP of Pakistan in the light of 32 years data, for the period of 1980 to2013. Methodology/sample-Research was secondary data based, and multivariate regression analysis was used to analyze the data. Econometric model used for analysis consisted of GDP as dependent variable while the independent variables were interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. Data was taken for these variables from the website of State Bank of Pakistan and World Bank. Individual significance of the variables, overall significance and goodness of fit of the econometric model was analysed. Findings-The study found that there is significant impact of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate on GDP. As far as the signs of co-efficient are concerned, inflation and interest rate had negative relation with GDP while interest rate possessed positive relation with GDP. Practical implications-Based on results and its analysis it is recommended that Government adopted tight monetary policy to reduce inflation as the results indicate that inflation has significant but negative impact on GDP. In case of developing counties like Pakistan high value of real exchange rate should be maintained because results show that there is significant and positive impact of exchange rate with GDP. Ceiling of interest rate should be removed in order to boost the economy.

Download Full-text

EXPLORING IMPACT OF MACRO ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON GDP OF PAKISTAN

IBT Journal of Business Studies ◽

10.46745/ilma.jbs.2010.06.02.02 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Sidrat Jilani ◽

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Real Exchange Rate ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Econometric Model ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Research Work ◽

Secondary Data ◽

The Impact

Purpose-This research work explores the impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, real exchange rate and interest rate on GDP of Pakistan in the light of 32 years data, for the period of 1980 to2013. Methodology/sample-Research was secondary data based, and multivariate regression analysis was used to analyze the data. Econometric model used for analysis consisted of GDP as dependent variable while the independent variables were interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. Data was taken for these variables from the website of State Bank of Pakistan and World Bank. Individual significance of the variables, overall significance and goodness of fit of the econometric model was analysed. Findings-The study found that there is significant impact of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate on GDP. As far as the signs of co-efficient are concerned, inflation and interest rate had negative relation with GDP while interest rate possessed positive relation with GDP. Practical implications-Based on results and its analysis it is recommended that Government adopted tight monetary policy to reduce inflation as the results indicate that inflation has significant but negative impact on GDP. In case of developing counties like Pakistan high value of real exchange rate should be maintained because results show that there is significant and positive impact of exchange rate with GDP. Ceiling of interest rate should be removed in order to boost the economy.

Download Full-text

Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

Journal of Economic Impact ◽

10.52223/jei3032102 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 137-143

Author(s):

Ismaila Akanni Yusuf ◽

Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen ◽

Hope Agbonrofo

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Stock Market ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Market Performance ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Stock Performance ◽

Stock Market Performance

The study examines the effect of the social and economic indicators on the stock market performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs secondary data from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria using the ordinary least squares as the technique of estimation. Findings show that regarding the economic drivers, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate negatively impact the stock market while only income exerts a positive impact. However, both income and interest rate are significant economic drivers of stock performance. Regarding social drivers, life expectancy, poverty, and population exert a positive impact on stock performance. Similarly, both life expectancy and population are significant social drivers of stock market performance in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities should be cautious in avoiding discretionary policies that might hike the exchange rate; otherwise, the flow of funds to the stock market will be derailed. Also, the fiscal authority should invest massively in safety nets programmes to enhance the capacity of the growing population and reduce poverty.

Download Full-text

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

African Journal of Business and Economic Development ◽

10.46654/ajbed.1533 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 16-40

Author(s):

Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Exchange Rate Volatility ◽

Series Data ◽

Balance Of Trade ◽

Econometric Approach ◽

The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

Download Full-text

Capital Market Determinants and Market Capitalization in Nigeria

International Journal of Financial Research ◽

10.5430/ijfr.v11n1p462 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 462

Author(s):

Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Capital Market ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Harmful Effect ◽

National Development ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Economic Indicators ◽

Market Capitalization ◽

The Capital Market

Capital market plays a crucial role in a country’s national development and economic capacity building. However, there are economic forces that determine the success of a capital market development in every nation. This study investigates the role of these economic indicators in determining the capital market performance in Nigeria using secondary data covering a period from 1998 to 2018. These data have been sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators, International Monetary Fund and CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2018 edition. The results from the regression analysis indicate that exchange rate and inflation rate have immaterial undesirable consequence on capital market capitalization (CMC) while the interest rate exerts a weighty harmful effect on CMC. The study also provides evidence that the gross domestic product (GDP) has a substantial positive impact on CMC. The study among others suggests that the growth of the economy should be sustained in order to keep boosting the capital market. However, the economic indicators such as inflation, interest rate and exchange rate should be kept under strict control by the relevant authorities in the country.

Download Full-text

Determinants of Non-Performing Loan in Nepalese Commercial Banks

Economic Journal of Development Issues ◽

10.3126/ejdi.v19i1-2.17700 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 22-38 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Seema Bhattarai

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Commercial Banks ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Percent Level ◽

Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Effective Exchange ◽

Effective Exchange Rate ◽

The Impact

The non-performing loans (NPL) of financial institutions are considered as a significant issue in the context of Nepal for last few decades. The paper aims to identify the impact of macroeconomic variables (GDP, Inflation, and Real Effective Exchange Rate) and bank specific variables (size, change in loan, real lending rate of interest, and share of loan to total assets) on the non-performing loan of the commercial banks in Nepal. The study was conducted mainly with secondary sources. The data were collected for 26 commercial banks covering the period of 2002-2012 with 227 observations. The study found that macroeconomic variables such as the real effective exchange rate have significantly negative impact on non-performing loan. The impact of GDP growth rate was found to be insignificant in this study. One year lagged inflation rate has significant positive impact on non-performing loan. The banks which charge relatively higher real interest rate have higher non-performing loan, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies. The ownership dummy has positive coefficient and significant at one percent level showing that if the bank is government owned the non-performing loan would be higher than that of the private owned banks. As well, more lending in the previous years and current year reduces the non-performing loan since the coefficient of change in loan in current and previous years have negative coefficient and significant at one percent level.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 19 & 20 No. 1-2 (2015) Combined Issue, Page: 22-38

Download Full-text

The Role and Impact of Remittances on the Economic Growth - Kosovo Case Study

ILIRIA International Review ◽

10.21113/iir.v4i2.32 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 61

Author(s):

MSc. Jeton Zogjani ◽

Dr.Sc. Myrvete Badivuku-Pantina

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Research Paper ◽

Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

The Impact ◽

Watson Statistic

In this research paper the role and impact of remittances on the economic growth of Kosovo in the recent years (2008 - 2013) through remittances, inflation rate, real effective exchange rate (REER) as independent variables and economic growth as depend variable is analyzed. The secondary data are used which are taken from international and domestic institutions which are analyzed through STATA software (an econometric and statistical program).The reason for writing is that in 2013 the total value of remittances in Kosovo was 620.8 million € and in 2011 Kosovo was among the top 10 countries with the highest level of remittances. The main arguments used in this research paper are: how do remittances affect in overall the economy? What is the impact of remittances on businesses? How do we use it for family consumption? In the research methodology are used secondary data and all of them are analyzed by STATA software which helps in calculation of OLS method of regression, descriptive statistic and correlation matrix.Also this paper research findings show us that if we refer to the result of variables that are included in the paper though OLS methods, the remittances (β1= - 0.017) and the exchange rate (β3= - 0.322) have negative impact and nonsignificant (T < 2) effect on economic growth but the inflation rate has positive (β2= 0.245) and significant (T > 2) effect on economic growth and the coefficient of determination (R²) is 84% then the coefficient of Durbin Watson Statistic (DW) is 2.11, it means there is no autocorrelation.

Download Full-text

Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

The Journal of Management Theory and Practice (JMTP) ◽

10.37231/jmtp.2020.2.3.171 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 17-23

Author(s):

Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽

Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽

Sajjad Khan ◽

Fahad Ali Khan ◽

Muhammad Naseem ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact ◽

Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

Download Full-text

Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence in Vietnam

International Journal of Social Science and Economics Invention ◽

10.23958/ijssei/vol05-i10/169 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Tang My Sang

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Monetary Policy ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Empirical Evidence ◽

Money Supply ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Secondary Data ◽

The Impact

Through the secondary data collected from 2009 to 2018, the research used Var method to test the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam. The results show that there is a relationship between the variables of monetary policy and economic growth, in which the money supply has a positive impact at a high significant level, interest rates have a negative impact on Vietnam economic growth. From the results obtained, the research proposed solutions for operating monetary policy.

Download Full-text

DAMPAK ALIH FUNGSI LAHAN PERTANIAN CENGKEH TERHADAP KONDISI SOSIAL EKONOMI PETANI (Studi Kasus Petani Pemilik Lahan di Kelurahan Kumelembuai Kecamatan Tomohon Timur)

AGRI-SOSIOEKONOMI ◽

10.35791/agrsosek.13.3a.2017.18017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 13 (3A) ◽

pp. 63

Author(s):

River Pieter Tandaju ◽

Elsje P. Manginsela ◽

Nordy F. L. Waney

Keyword(s):

Agricultural Land ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Primary Data ◽

Land Conversion ◽

Local Society ◽

Social Side ◽

The Impact

The research aims to describe the impact of the conversion of agricultural land of cloves to the socio-economic condition of farmers. The study was conducted from May to July 2017. The data used are primary data obtained through interviews to 5 (five) respondents who sell land for land converted. Secondary data is obtained from Tetetana Hill nature reserve, Kumelembuai village government, books and journals. Data analysis used is descriptive analysis. The research results showed that viewed from the economic side, land conversion has a positive impact for the farmers family and local society. Positive impacts for farmers family include increasing the income, helping to construction the house of farmers, opening up a new farming businesses, and for local society like existence of jobs. Viewed from the social side, land conversion has positive and negative impacts, that is: change of farmers family life status (positive impact), and the influence of visitor habits toward society (negative impact).

Download Full-text