scholarly journals Determinants of Unemployment in East African Community Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 06 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mr. Gicharu Stephen Mathenge ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
East African ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
African Community ◽  
Study Population

The purpose of this research study is assessing the relationship between unemployment and its determinants for five east Africa community countries i.e., Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda & Burundi. Particularly, discussed are some economic variables and their significant effects especially in the long run. The study variables include; inflation, GDP growth, population growth and foreign direct investments in relation to unemployment. In order to achieve the research objectives, a methodology framework of panel autoregressive distributed-lag (PARDL) is undertaken. The study finds that a long-run relationship exists among all the variables. Moreover, GDP, POPL, and FDI are found significant to interpret the unemployment in the long-run whereas INF is found insignificant to interpret unemployment in the long-run. The findings also reveal that the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in EACCs is in the short run and not in the long run. This study concludes that foreign direct investment and gross domestic product have negative and significant relationship with unemployment. Population growth has positive and significant relationship with unemployment and it contributes to unemployment while inflation rate has a positive and insignificant relationship with unemployment. According to the findings of this study population growth is the key determinant of unemployment in EACCs.

scholarly journals Impact of East African Community Integration on Trade: Gravity Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiptum George Kosgei ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
East African ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
African Community ◽  
Effect Estimation

East African community (EAC) is a regional economic bloc established to foster economic corporation between Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and Tanzania. Using gravity model the study explores the short run and long run effect of East African community (EAC) on trade using parametric, random effect and fixed effect estimation techniques. Secondly, the study investigates whether formation of EAC led to trade creation or trade diversion in the long run among the member countries of EAC. Lastly, the study establishes the effect of entry of Burundi and Rwanda to the economic bloc of EAC on trade. The study used panel data obtained from the five countries of EAC for the period 1985 to 2019. Breausch Pagan LM test for restrictions in the parametric model and Hausman test for endogeinity in the gravity model found out that fixed effect estimation technique produced accurate and plausible results than parametric and random effect estimation techniques. The empirical results of fixed effect model established that trade across EAC member countries rose by 1.6% in the short run while random effect and parametric models recorded 3.6% increase in trade in the short run. This effect was insignificant meaning that trade between EAC member countries did not expand considerably in the short run. In the long run, fixed effect indicate that EAC increased trade by 24.2% while random effect and parametric model each show that EAC increased trade by 16%. The coefficients are statistically significant at 5% ceteris paribus. Secondly, economic corporation of EAC led to trade creation in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda by 41.6%, 12.2%, 33.9% and 30.1% respectively and trade diversion by 4.2% in Tanzania. Thirdly, entry of Burundi and Rwanda to EAC increased trade of EAC countries by 19.6%. The coefficient is statistically significant at 5% level. The results of random effect and parametric model each indicate a growth in trade by 19.1%. The results of parametric, random effect and fixed effect estimation techniques are all consistent. Lastly, the study established that countries in EAC ought to foster greater growth in GDP, to encourage and strengthen use of common language and to reduce cross border restrictions in order to realize more growth in trade.

Government revenue and economic growth of Pakistan (1979 – 2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wajahat Rehman ◽  
Raza Ali Khan ◽  
Shazia Kousar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The study is conducted to identify the relationship between economic growth of Pakistan and government revenue sources – i.e. Tax Revenue, Non-tax Revenue and Additional Receipts, while measuring the change in economic development occurs due to change in government revenue sources in short-run as well as in long-run. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) is performed on time series secondary data for the period from 1979 to 2017 and a forecasting model is developed to anticipate change in economic growth due to change in government revenue sources. Results concluded that Tax Revenue has positive significant relationship and Additional Receipts have negative significant relationship, however, Non-tax Revenue has positive insignificant relationship with economic growth of Pakistan in long-run, whereas no short-run relationship is identified among dependent and independent variables. The analysis indicated that 1% change in Tax Revenue results in 1.24% change in economic growth in the same direction, whereas 1% change in Additional Receipts results in 0.18% change in opposite direction in economic growth of Pakistan in long-run. However, evidences showed that in recent years, government has increased its dependency on the Additional Receipts as compared to Tax Revenue and Non-tax Revenue. For prosper and accelerated economic growth, it is suggested that policy makers should focus on increasing the revenue collection from Tax Revenue sources since economic growth of Pakistan is positively influenced by Tax Revenue and minimize dependency on the Additional Receipts as it hinders the economic growth. Proposed forecasting model provides promising results and projected the gross domestic product (GDP) for year 2018 with mare 0.32% and 4.44% deviation in logarithm value and rupee values, respectively.

Inflation Convergence in the East African Community: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Carcel ◽  
Luis A. Gil-Alana ◽  
Godfrey Madigu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Fractional Integration ◽  
Fractional Cointegration ◽  
East African ◽  
Convergence Hypothesis ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
African Community ◽  
Inflation Convergence

In this study we have examined the inflation convergence hypothesis in the five countries that belong to the East African Community and which recently signed a protocol outlining their plans for launching a monetary union within ten years. We check for common patterns in the persistence in the inflation levels. As it is argued in the literature, countries hoping to form a monetary union should present similar inflation patterns. Our study shows that the inflation rates in these countries present orders of integration equal to higher than one in all cases, confirming that shocks will most certainly not recover in the long run. Moreover, fractional cointegration relationships are also found across all the countries with the exception of Tanzania, suggesting that this country displays a different pattern compared to the remaining four, presenting also some evidence of a break in the data.

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