scholarly journals Does Uncertainty Matter for Trade - Economic Growth Nexus in Indonesia?

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Panky Tri Febiyansah ◽  
Bintang Dwitya Cahyono ◽  
Rio Novandra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to test the impact of uncertainty on the causal relationship among exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia. The relationship is constructed by examining the presence of FDI-adjusted exports and imports (trade) and the output link using conditional variances-covariances derived from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process in a vector error correction model (VEC-GARCH model). Using evidence in Indonesia, the model exposes the uni-directional nexus from trade performance to trade-adjusted output growth in the absence of uncertainty. The volatility effects are evident in the causal relationship between trade and output. The finding shows that the uncertainty effects hamper the trade-economic growth nexus. Incorporated with the long-run causality, trade still causes output even after containing the contributions of volatility. The significant role of imports highlights the higher demand for intermediate capital products and the inclusion of technology in strengthening economic growth.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals The Trade-Off Between Tourism and Pollution for Japanese Economic Growth

Tourism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-394
Author(s):  
Giovanni Bella ◽  
Carla Massidda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Polluting Emissions ◽  
The Relationship

This paper proposes a vector error correction model to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions and GDP levels in Japan, in the period 1970-2014, and tests the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis driven by tourist arrivals. Our results validate the existence of two different causality channels among the selected variables. In particular, we find that a trade-off might exist between increasing the number of tourists, which drives economic growth, and the pattern of a sustainable development, due to the increase of polluting emissions. The analysis allows us to propose appropriate policy strategies to promote a robust and sustainable long run economic growth.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Irwandi Irwandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
The Relationship

Indonesia is one of the largest coal producer countries in the world. In the previous research, it is stated that coal producer countries are able to affect economic growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate the co-integration and causal relationships between coal consumption and income in Indonesia for the period of 1965-2016 using Granger causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) employing population as the control variable in bivariate system. The Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were used to determine the variable stationarity. From Johansen’s co-integration tests, it is indicated that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The empirical study shows that there is no causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Indonesia since coal consumption in fact cannot affect economic growth in Indonesia. Export tax becomes government revenues earned from energy sectors including coal.

scholarly journals Dampak ASEAN-China free trade agreement (ACFTA) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Azza Ayullah Kusuma
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study investigates the impact of ACFTA, Indonesian trade, the exchange rate on economic growth in Indonesia. The data used secondary data during 1997-2016 were sourced from UNCOMTRADE, ASEAN Statistics, and World Bank. The method used is a quantitative approach with vector error correction model (VECM). The findings of this study in the long run show that Indonesian trade, ACFTA has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the rupiah exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on economic growth

scholarly journals Price Discovery Mechanism in Spot and Futures Market of Agricultural Commodities: The Case of India

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Minakshi .
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

There has been increasing focus by emerging market researchers, policymakers and regulators for investigating price discovery, relationship between future and physical market and accessible trading and risk management instruments for the benefit of various stakeholders and thus contributing to the development of literature. The central question of this paper is examining the role of influence of one market on the other and the role of each market segment in price discovery in the Indian context. Johansen Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been employed to examine the relationship between the spot and futures prices. The cointegration results do not confirm the existence of long-run relationship between spot and futures prices. It is thus, implied that futures prices unlikely serve as market expectations of subsequent spot prices of selected agri-commodities in India and do not help in price discovery process.

scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS PENGGUNAAN ENERGI, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN EMISI LINGKUNGAN DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Serdo Nurdi Putra ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Environmental Emissions ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to identify and analyze the relationship between energy use, economic growth and environmental emissions in Indonesia. The type of this research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data 1982-2016 which uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) data to see the long and short term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that there is no causality or unidirectional relationship between energy use and economic growth. There is no causal relationship or unidirectional relationship between economic growth and environmental emissions. There is a causal relationship between environmental emissions and energy use.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Irwandi Irwandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
The Relationship

Indonesia is one of the largest coal producer countries in the world. In the previous research, it is stated that coal producer countries are able to affect economic growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate the co-integration and causal relationships between coal consumption and income in Indonesia for the period of 1965-2016 using Granger causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) employing population as the control variable in bivariate system. The Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were used to determine the variable stationarity. From Johansen’s co-integration tests, it is indicated that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The empirical study shows that there is no causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Indonesia since coal consumption in fact cannot affect economic growth in Indonesia. Export tax becomes government revenues earned from energy sectors including coal.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-20
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Indonesia is one of the largest coal producer countries in the world. In the previous research, it is stated that coal producer countries are able to affect economic growth. The purpose of the study is to investigate the cointegration and causal relationships between coal consumption and income in Indonesia for the period of 1965- 2016 using Granger causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) employing population as the control variable in bivariate system. The Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were used to determine the variable stationarity. From Johansen’s co-integration tests, it is indicated that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The empirical study shows that there is no causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Indonesia since coal consumption in fact cannot affect economic growth in Indonesia. Export tax becomes government revenues earned from energy sectors including coal.

Empirical Research of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Beijing

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 2220-2224
Author(s):  
Jie Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing over the period 1980-2012. The Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test and the vector error correction model (VECM) are used to calculate the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The conclusion is that there exists a co-integration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, and this relationship is a one way relationship from economic growth to energy consumption. Further, using VECM, the long-term and short-term elasticity from economy to energy consumption are 0.43 and 0.14 separately. Statistical analysis shows that, from 1980 to 2011, every 1% growth in GDP annually would drive energy consumption increasing rate by 0.43% correspondently.

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