scholarly journals Dampak ASEAN-China free trade agreement (ACFTA) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Azza Ayullah Kusuma
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study investigates the impact of ACFTA, Indonesian trade, the exchange rate on economic growth in Indonesia. The data used secondary data during 1997-2016 were sourced from UNCOMTRADE, ASEAN Statistics, and World Bank. The method used is a quantitative approach with vector error correction model (VECM). The findings of this study in the long run show that Indonesian trade, ACFTA has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the rupiah exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on economic growth

scholarly journals Does Uncertainty Matter for Trade - Economic Growth Nexus in Indonesia?

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Panky Tri Febiyansah ◽  
Bintang Dwitya Cahyono ◽  
Rio Novandra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to test the impact of uncertainty on the causal relationship among exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia. The relationship is constructed by examining the presence of FDI-adjusted exports and imports (trade) and the output link using conditional variances-covariances derived from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process in a vector error correction model (VEC-GARCH model). Using evidence in Indonesia, the model exposes the uni-directional nexus from trade performance to trade-adjusted output growth in the absence of uncertainty. The volatility effects are evident in the causal relationship between trade and output. The finding shows that the uncertainty effects hamper the trade-economic growth nexus. Incorporated with the long-run causality, trade still causes output even after containing the contributions of volatility. The significant role of imports highlights the higher demand for intermediate capital products and the inclusion of technology in strengthening economic growth.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals The Impact of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 17/3/2015 on Exchange Rate: Analysis Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-141
Author(s):  
Muhamad Yudi Setiawan ◽  
Tanti Novianti ◽  
Mukhamad Najib
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The weakening of the Rupiah against the US dollar has encouraged Bank Indonesia to issued Bank Indonesia Regulation (Peraturan Bank Indonesia - PBI) No. 17/3/2015. The research aimed to analyze the factors that affected the Rupiah exchange rate, the effect of PBI No. 17/3/2015 on the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate, and the behavior of exchange rate movement to the shocks on the variables that influenced it. The research applied secondary data, namely monthly data from January 2008 to April 2019 taken from reliable sources such as National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Statistics Indonesia (BPS). It was explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The studied data were processed with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to identify long and short-term effects. The results of the long-term equation show that export-import has a negative effect on the exchange rate. Similarly, inflation has no significant effect on the exchange rate. Then, the money supply has a significantly negative effect on the exchange rate. However, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia positively affects the exchange rate. Next, the implementation of PBI No. 17/3/2015 has a significant and positive impact on the exchange rate. Last, the crisis condition does not affect the changes in exchange rates.

scholarly journals The Trade-Off Between Tourism and Pollution for Japanese Economic Growth

Tourism ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-394
Author(s):  
Giovanni Bella ◽  
Carla Massidda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Polluting Emissions ◽  
The Relationship

This paper proposes a vector error correction model to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions and GDP levels in Japan, in the period 1970-2014, and tests the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis driven by tourist arrivals. Our results validate the existence of two different causality channels among the selected variables. In particular, we find that a trade-off might exist between increasing the number of tourists, which drives economic growth, and the pattern of a sustainable development, due to the increase of polluting emissions. The analysis allows us to propose appropriate policy strategies to promote a robust and sustainable long run economic growth.

scholarly journals Determinant of The Bitcoin Prices as Alternative Invesment in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Gery Andrean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error

The aims of this study to know the determinant that affect bitcoin prices and how bitcoin prices response to the shock from GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, exchange rate, JCI (Jakarta Composite Index. The method that was used in this research was quantitative analysis, with data analysis tools Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Data used in this research was secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia, Bitcoincharts, and Yahoo Finance. The results of this study showed that (1) inflation in short term and in long term has negative significant effect on bitcoin prices, exchange rate in long term has positive significant effect on bitcoin price. In short term and in the long term GDP and JCI do not have significant effect on bitcoin prices (2) The results of IRF shows bitcoin prices respond negatively shock from GDP and exchange rate, while shock from inflation and JCI responded posifively by bitcoin prices.

scholarly journals The Impact of Financing on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Mohammed A AL Mahish
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Impact

<p>This paper investigates the impact of the overall financing activities on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The study developed a financing index that takes into account the overall available credit in Saudi Arabia. The index was shown to be sensitive to economic and political shocks such as the Arab Spring. Using Johnson cointegration approach, the paper found an evidence of long run relationship between real GDP per capita, financing, real interest real, public labor force, and capital. Using a vector error correction model, the paper found a robust estimate that proves the positive impact of financing on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, Granger-Causality Wald test indicates that financing influences economic growth in Saudi Arabia.</p>

MODEL PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Imam Mukhlis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

This research aims to estimate the demand for money model in Indonesia for 2005.22015.12. The variables used in this research are demand for money, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate (IDR/US$). The stationary test with ADF used to test unit root in the data. Cointegration test applied to estimate the long run relationship between variables. This research employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the money demand model in Indonesia. The results showed that all the data was stationer at the difference level (1%). There were long run relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia. The VECM model could not explain interaction between explanatory variables to independent variables. In the short run, there were not relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

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