The Relationship between Government Debt and Social Welfare

This study aims to analyze the relationship between government debt and social welfare in Indonesia in 1980-2019. The data used in this research is secondary data using time series data. The analysis used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The findings result from the first model show that in the short-run, additional debt-to-GDP was not significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the long-run, additional debt-to-GDP is significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. The results also find that in the long run additional debt-to-GDP is positively correlated with poverty levels in Indonesia, meaning that additional debt-to-GDP increases the poverty rate in Indonesia. For GDP per capita, additional debt-to-GDP has a negative correlation. The inflation, tax-to-GDP, and GDP are not significant to the poverty rate in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the additional debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP variable is significant to the poverty rate, and has a positif and negative correlation. The findings from second model also indicate that population and inflation are significant and positively correlated with the poverty level, but tax-to-GDP ratio is not significant on GDP per capita in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the population and tax-to-GDP are significant to GDP per capita. Total population has a positive correlation, while tax-to-GDP ratio has a negative correlation.

Forecasting the Inequality of Income Distribution in Consequence of the Covid-19 Pandemic

This study aims to forecasting the Covid-19 Pandemic's effect on income inequality distribution in Kulon-Progo Regency during of 2020 to 2028. The study analysis tools utilized forecast are linear and non-linear trend. The historical data use during of 2010 to 2019, data source obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics Yogyakarta in statistical series book of 2020. The findings of forecast result show that the Covid-19 pandemic directly impact on the increased income inequality distribution. The implication is to carry out the process of economic recovery due to the Covid-19 pandemic case by identifying community groups who are vulnerable to decreased income through strengthening social safety nets. In addition, government policies can also optimize the utilization and transportation services to increase farmer exchange rates, because most people work in the agricultural sector.

Women Access and Awareness of Financial Inclusion in Indonesia

The financial system plays a role in creating a community economic development, especially overcoming gender disparities. This paper analyzes the effect of mobile phone on the financial inclusion of women's in Indonesia involving data from household surveys provided by the 2014 Family Life Survey. We use the probit model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) methods and the variable procedure to examine how the role of mobile phone on women's awareness in accessing financial institutions, as well as increasing savings and loan ownership. Our estimation results found that mobile phone penetration significantly increased awareness of women to access formal financial institutions, improve saving behavior, higher credit amount and access mobile banking. Therefore, mobile phone brings great benefits in increasing financial inclusion, especially women in Indonesia.

Labor and Government Policies on Poverty Reduction in Sumatera Island, Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of agricultural workers, education level, female workers and the role of government policies on poverty rate in Sumatra. Observations were made in 151 districts/cities in Sumatra during the period 2013-2015 and 2017-2018. The approach used is a panel data regression model. The method applied is random effect. The findings show the labor in the agricultural sector has a significant and positive effect on the poverty rate in Sumatra, while the level of education and government spending has a significant and negative effect on the poverty rate. The policy implication is that it is necessary to increase labor productivity in the agricultural sector and other industries that are more efficient. The government also needs to strengthen the agricultural sub-sector in order to have better value-added products. Optimizing and improving basic services such as education, health, economic and social.

The Competitiveness of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil in International Market

The purpose of this study was to know the competitiveness of Indonesia’s CPO exports in the world and strategies to increase Indonesia’s CPO competitiveness. The required data is secondary data from the report of CPO export in Indonesia in 1993-2017. This research-based on the background by the issue of palm oil discrimination by the European Union, where Europe is one of Indonesia’s main CPO export destinations. This research uses a qualitative-quantitative approach, analysis with a quantitative approach is used to analyze the comparative advantage of Indonesia’s palm oil in the international market used RCA. Analysis with a qualitative approach is used to analyze which strategies will be used to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil. The results of the study show that in 2017 export performance of Indonesia’s palm oil increased. It showed by the value of RCA>1 which is 55,47 and an average of 37,22, Indonesia has the competitiveness of palm oil because of the increased export volume of palm oil to the major importer countries, such as India, Pakistan, and Europe. Indonesia’s still competitive in Europe and Asia’s market based on the average value of the RCA index.

Guidelines for Development of Area-Based Plantation of Rubber Commodity in Musi Rawas

There has not been a good integration among the central, provincial, and regional levels in the allocation of the budget, thus making the impact of plantation development activities less effective and efficient. This study aimed to analyze the potential of the region and create a pattern for the development of rubber commodity plantations in Musi Rawas District. This study was conducted by analyzing the data and literature review, conducting focus group discussions, mapping and digitizing the potential for rubber commodities using satellite imagery. With the position of the region that is included in the growing stage, the development of the area is directed first for on-farm development. The development of the region is carried out by increasing the production and productivity of rubber plants in Musi Rawas District by replanting and intensifying the rubber plants. The activity strategy focuses more on how to increase the productivity of rubber plants so as to produce high quality claret processing materials (BOKAR) and rubber wood. The development strategy is centered in Tuah Negeri sub-district as the center of the Area and other surrounding sub-districts as supporting Areas. Therefore, in order to achieve these production targets, the strategy taken in developing rubber-based plantation areas is the incorporation and strengthening of the rubber agribusiness system.

Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Local Region

This study aims to analyze the effect of public infrastructure on economic growth in Lampung Province. The data used are time series and cross sections for the period 2012-2018 and 14 districts/cities. The method applied is the panel data model with the random effect model method. The results showed that Infrastructure, Irrigation Infrastructure, Health Infrastructure, Investment, Labor, and Gini Growth had a significant and positive effect on economic growth, while capital expenditures insignificant effect on economic growth. The implications of these findings indicate that public sector investments such as road infrastructure, bridges and other infrastructure facilities are important.

Identifying Factors Influencing the Labor Productivity of SMEs in South Sumatra

This study is to investigate the effect of human capital, labor domicile, gender, and working hours on the productivity of MSME workers in South Sumatra. The data used are primary data, data collection with a purposive sample approach as many as 196 samples as workers in SMEs. This study applies a logistic regression approach. The findings of this study indicate that independent tests, human capital, labor domicile, gender, and working hours have a significant relationship to labor productivity. Likewise, jointly the predictor variables such as junior high school, Local workers, male, and working hours of more than seven hours have the opportunity to get higher productivity than other categories in SMEs.

The Relationship between Current COVID-19 and Indonesia Stock Market: Evidence from ARDL Model

This study aims to prove how COVID-19 in response to the Indonesia stock market applying an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration method. This study analyzes the relationship between the natural logarithm of daily trading volume of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the natural logarithm of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases both in the short run and the long run. Bound test and cointegration were used to analyze the data daily from 2 March 2020 until 30 November 2020. The findings result show in the short-run, Indonesia stock market is only influenced by its lag, but not in the long-run. Meanwhile COVID-19 variable proved to be not significantly affected the stock market both in short and long-run. The model is predicted to re-stabilize at least over 1.7 months later

The Impact of the Institution on Economic Growth: An Evidence from ASEAN

The ideal community life structure has a strong institutional level. Economists agree on the institution as an important factor in creating economic growth. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of institutional factors on economic growth in ASEAN. Institutional variables include political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption, while economic variables include exports and imports. This study utilized panel data estimation on 10 countries in ASEAN during 2002-2018. The fixed effect model was the best estimation model. The findings show that there are three keys of institutions that had a significant influence on per capita GDP on ASEAN, namely voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and rule of law. It could be that if the institutional factors are weak, it will be detrimental to economic performance. The policy implication is that the synergy of all stakeholders needs to be improved for better institutional enforcement.