scholarly journals Population growth of Australian East coast humpback whales, observed from Cape Byron, 1998 to 2004

2020 ◽  
pp. 261-268
Author(s):  
David A. Paton ◽  
Rric Kniest
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Megaptera Novaeangliae ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Group V ◽  
Breeding Stock ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) that migrate past the east coast of Australia comprise part of Group V (E(i) breeding stock). From1995 to 2004 an annual 16 day survey was conducted from Cape Byron (28°37’S, 153°38’E), the most easterly point on the Australian mainland,monitoring the peak of the humpback whale northern migration. The annual rate of increase between 1998 and 2004 of humpback whales observedoff Cape Byron is 11.0% (95% CI 2.3–20.5%). This rate of increase is consistent with that recorded from other studies of the humpback whalepopulation off the east coast of Australia. The large confidence intervals associated with this estimate are due to considerable inter-annual variationin counts. The most likely explanation for this being the short survey period, which may not have always coincided with the peak of migration, andin some years a large proportion of whales passed Cape Byron at a greater distance out to sea, making sightability more difficult.

scholarly journals Abundance of East coast Australian humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in 2005 estimated using multi-point sampling and capture-recapture analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 253-259
Author(s):  
David A. Paton ◽  
Lyndon Brooks ◽  
Daniel Burns ◽  
Trish Franklin ◽  
Wally Franklin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Megaptera Novaeangliae ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Migration Route ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Breeding Stock ◽  
Abundance Estimate ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Near Extinction

The humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near extinction during the lastcentury. This remnant population is part of Breeding Stock E. Previous abundance estimates for the east Australian portion of Breeding Stock Ehave been based mainly on land-based counts. Here we present a capture-recapture abundance estimate for this population using photo-identificationdata. These data were collected at three locations on the migration route (Byron Bay – northern migration, Hervey Bay and Ballina – southernmigration) in order to estimate the population of humpback whales that migrated along the east coast of Australia in 2005. The capture-recapturedata were analysed using a variety of closed population models with a model-averaged estimate of 7,041 (95% CI 4,075–10,008) whales.

scholarly journals Concerning demographic limitations on the population growth rate of West Australian (Breeding Stock D) humpback whales

2020 ◽  
pp. 201-208
Author(s):  
A. Brandão ◽  
D.S. Butterworth
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Demographic Parameters ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Transient Effects ◽  
Rate Of Increase

The upper bound of 0.126 on the maximum demographically possible annual growth rate for humpback whales that has standardly been imposedon recent applications of age-aggregated assessment models for this species in the IWC Scientific Committee, is based on an analysis that assumessteady age structure. It is conceivable that transient age-structure effects could admit greater population growth rates for short periods than suggestedby such a bound. This possibility is addressed by developing an age-structured population model in which possible density dependent changes inpregnancy rate, age at first parturition and natural mortality are modelled explicitly, and allowance is made for the possibility of natural mortalityincreasing at older ages. The model is applied to the case of the west Australian humpback whale population (Breeding Stock D), for which breedingground surveys over the 1982–1994 period provide a point estimate of 0.10 for the annual population growth rate. Results based upon the breedingpopulation survey estimate of abundance of 10,032 in 1999 suggest that 0.12 is the maximum demographically feasible annual rate of increase forthis stock over 1982–1994 if it is a closed population. This result is based on essentially the same parameter choices as led to the earlier r = 0.126bound, i.e. that in the limit of low population size the age at first parturition approaches five years from above, the annual pregnancy rate 0.5 frombelow, and the annual natural mortality rate 0.01 from above. Transient effects do not appear able to reconcile the observed rate of increase withless extreme values of demographic parameters than led to the previously imposed upper bound of 0.126 on the maximum possible annual growthrate. Although use of extreme values reported for demographic parameters for Northern Hemisphere humpback whale populations, rather than thoseconsidered here, would reduce this suggested maximum rate of 0.12, the conclusion that transient effects have a very limited impact on observedpopulation growth rates would be unlikely to change.

scholarly journals Absolute and relative abundance estimates of Australian east coast humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

2020 ◽  
pp. 243-252
Author(s):  
Michael J. Noad ◽  
Rebecca A. Dunlop ◽  
David Paton ◽  
Douglas H. Cato
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Absolute Abundance ◽  
Abundance Estimate ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Migratory Population ◽  
Australian Coastline ◽  
Near Extinction

The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independentseries of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline havedemonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of theseseries of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance.We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090±660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6±0.5% (95% CI) for 1987–2004.The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitationrecovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annualincrease should be independent of these and highly robust.

Bayesian estimation of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population abundance and movement patterns in southeastern Alaska

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (11) ◽  
pp. 1783-1797 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.N. Hendrix ◽  
J. Straley ◽  
C.M. Gabriele ◽  
S.M. Gende
Keyword(s):  
Deviance Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Megaptera Novaeangliae ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Movement Model ◽  
Abundance Estimate ◽  
High Area ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Competing Models

We used a mechanistic movement model within a Bayesian framework to estimate survival, abundance, and rate of increase for a population of humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ) subject to a long-term photographic capture–recapture effort in southeastern Alaska, USA (SEAK). Multiple competing models were fitted that differed in movement, recapture rates, and observation error using deviance information criterion. The median annual survival probability in the selected model was 0.996 (95% central probability interval (CrI): 0.984, 0.999), which is among the highest reported for this species. Movement among areas was temporally dynamic, although whales exhibited high area fidelity (probability of returning to same area of ≥0.75) throughout the study. Median abundance was 1585 whales in 2008 (95% CrI: 1455, 1644). Incorporating an abundance estimate of 393 (95% confidence interval: 331, 455) whales from 1986, the median rate of increase was 5.1% (95% CrI: 4.4%, 5.9%). Although applied here to cetaceans in SEAK, the framework provides a flexible approach for estimating mortality and movement in populations that move among sampling areas.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 1229-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria E. Morete ◽  
Tatiana L. Bisi ◽  
Richard M. Pace ◽  
Sergio Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
East Coast ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Megaptera Novaeangliae ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Breeding Ground ◽  
Increasing Trend

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998–2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales' summering grounds and also by changes in spatial–temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

scholarly journals Abundance estimates of Southern Hemisphere Breeding Stock ‘D’ humpback whales from aerial and land-based surveys off Shark Bay, Western Australia, 2008

2020 ◽  
pp. 209-221
Author(s):  
Sharon L. Hedley ◽  
John L. Bannister ◽  
Rebecca A. Dunlop
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Aerial Survey ◽  
Humpback Whales ◽  
Line Transect ◽  
Breeding Stock ◽  
Abundance Estimate ◽  
Shark Bay ◽  
Abundance Estimates ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Single platform aerial line transect and land-based surveys of Southern Hemisphere Breeding Stock ‘D’ humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliaewere undertaken off Shark Bay, Western Australia to provide absolute abundance estimates of animals migrating northward along the westernAustralian coast. The aerial survey flew a total of 28 flights, of which 26 were completed successfully, from 24 June–19 August 2008. The landbased survey was undertaken from Cape Inscription, Dirk Hartog Island, Shark Bay, during the expected peak of the whales’ northward migration,from 8–20 July. During the first week of the land-based survey, some double count effort was undertaken to provide information on the numbersof pods missed from the land station. The assumed period of northward migration was 2 June–7 September. Estimated abundance of northwardmigrating whales during that time is 34,290 (95% CI: (27,340–53,350)), representing an annual rate of increase of 12.9% (CV = 0.20) since anestimate of 11,500 in 1999. This estimate is based on an estimate of relative abundance of surface-available whales of 10,840 (8,640–16,860), andan estimated g(0) of 0.32. There were considerable practical difficulties encountered during the land-based survey which reduced the effectivenessof the dual-survey approach for estimating g(0) for the aerial survey. Furthermore only about 15% of whales were estimated to be within the visualrange of the land-based station. Alternative approaches for estimating g(0) from these data are therefore also presented, resulting in considerablyhigher estimates of around 0.6–0.7, and yielding a conservative abundance estimate of 17,810 (14,210–27,720).

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