Long-term Trend in Mean Density of Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba) Uncertain

Two recent attempts to model the long-term trend in mean density of Antarctic krill in the southwestern sector of the Atlantic using the KRILLBASE dataset using different statistical methods as well as inclusion versus exclusion of data from “non-scientific” nets have resulted in disparate conclusions. The approach that used a linear mixed model (LMM) fitted to the log of mean density, after standardisation was applied to individual net hauls and with means calculated for 12 spatial strata by years between 1976 and 2016, gave a highly statistically significant linear “regional” decline north of 60oS and, to a lesser degree, south of this latitude. The alternative approach that used a ”hurdle” model fitted to the individual net haul data, excluded regional stratification, and excluded non-scientific nets failed to detect an overall significant decline. The method of modelling log transformed means was reappraised and corrected by applying a meta-analytic LMM approach. Additionally, nonlinear smooths in year by region and a smooth in mean “climatological temperature” were included in the LMM. This model showed on average a mostly consistent decline north of 60oS, however, neither trend was significantly different from a no-trend prediction with the trend north of 60oS highly uncertain. Uncertainty of predictions resulted in only weak power to detect a substantial decline of the order of 70% between 1985 and 2005. These model-based inferences neither strongly support nor reject a general hypothesis that there has been a dramatic decline in density of Antarctic krill in the Southwest Atlantic over this period.

Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a relative long-term and reliable prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has remained a challenging problem. Towards achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near surface air temperature field. We uncover that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecasting skill of 0.54 (Pearson correlation) with a 5-month lead-time by using the previous calendar year’s data. The skill of our ISMR forecast is better than that of operational forecasts models, which have, however, quite a short lead-time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network-ENSO and ENSO-monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all India rainfall, as well as the different Indian homogeneous regions’ rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between the Southwest Atlantic, the Western part of the Indian Ocean, and the North Asia-Pacific region, with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. A stronger connection through the chain of the main atmospheric circulations patterns benefits the prediction of the amount of rainfall. We uncover a hotspot area in the mid-latitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor, the South-West Atlantic Subtropical Index (SWAS-index). Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.

Evolutionary Tracks of Chromosomal Diversification in Surgeonfishes (Acanthuridae: Acanthurus) Along the World’s Biogeographic Domains

Fishes of the genus Acanthurus (Acanthuridae) are strongly related to reef environments, in a broad biogeographic context worldwide. Although their biological aspects are well known, cytogenetic information related to this genus remains incipient. In this study, Acanthurus species from populations inhabiting coastal regions of the Southwest Atlantic (SWA), South Atlantic oceanic islands (Fernando de Noronha Archipelago and Trindade Island), Greater Caribbean (GC), and Indo-Pacific Ocean (the center of the origin of the group) were analyzed to investigate their evolutionary differentiation. For this purpose, we employed conventional cytogenetic procedures and fluorescence in situ hybridization of 18S rDNA, 5S rDNA, and H3 and H2B-H2A histone sequences. The Atlantic species (A. coeruleus, A. chirurgus, and A. bahianus) did not show variations among them, despite their vast continental and insular distribution. In contrast, A. coeruleus from SWA and GC diverged from each other in the number of 18S rDNA sites, a condition likely associated with the barrier created by the outflows of the Amazonas/Orinoco rivers. The geminate species A. tractus had a cytogenetic profile similar to that of A. bahianus. However, the chromosomal macrostructures and the distribution of rDNA and hisDNA sequences revealed moderate to higher rates of diversification when Acanthurus species from recently colonized areas (Atlantic Ocean) were compared to A. triostegus, a representative species from the Indian Ocean. Our cytogenetic data covered all Acanthurus species from the Western Atlantic, tracked phylogenetic diversification throughout the dispersive process of the genus, and highlighted the probable diversifying role of ocean barriers in this process.

Vertical Mixing and Heat Fluxes Conditioned by a Seismically Imaged Oceanic Front

The southwest Atlantic gyre connects several distinct water masses, which means that this oceanic region is characterized by a complex frontal system and enhanced water mass modification. Despite its significance, the distribution and variability of vertical mixing rates have yet to be determined for this system. Specifically, potential conditioning of mixing rates by frontal structures, in this location and elsewhere, is poorly understood. Here, we analyze vertical seismic (i.e., acoustic) sections from a three-dimensional survey that straddles a major front along the northern portion of the Brazil-Falkland Confluence. Hydrographic analyses constrain the structure and properties of water masses. By spectrally analyzing seismic reflectivity, we calculate spatial and temporal distributions of the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, of diapycnal mixing rate, K, and of vertical diffusive heat flux, FH. We show that estimates of ε, K, and FH are elevated compared to regional and global mean values. Notably, cross-sectional mean estimates vary little over a 6 week period whilst smaller scale thermohaline structures appear to have a spatially localized effect upon ε, K, and FH. In contrast, a mesoscale front modifies ε and K to a depth of 1 km, across a region of O(100) km. This front clearly enhances mixing rates, both adjacent to its surface outcrop and beneath the mixed layer, whilst also locally suppressing ε and K to a depth of 1 km. As a result, estimates of FH increase by a factor of two in the vicinity of the surface outcrop of the front. Our results yield estimates of ε, K and FH that can be attributed to identifiable thermohaline structures and they show that fronts can play a significant role in water mass modification to depths of 1 km.