Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth

Policy Papers ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  

This paper aims to inform policymakers, and other interested parties, about the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment. The approach focuses on the role of sound and sustainable government finances in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Achieving, and maintaining, such a fiscal position often requires adjusting fiscal policy, as well as strengthening fiscal institutions. Fiscal adjustment may involve either tightening or loosening the fiscal stance, depending on individual country circumstances.

Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (56) ◽  
Author(s):  

This paper investigates how developments during and after the 2008–09 crisis have changed economists’ and policymakers’ views on: (i) fiscal risks and fiscal sustainability; (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; (iii) the appropriate design of fiscal adjustment programs; and (iv) the role of fiscal institutions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Igor Chugunov ◽  
Valentina Makohon

The purpose of the article is to reveal the role of budgetary projection in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes within the framework of improving the efficiency of fiscal policy intended to macroeconomic stability maintenance in both countries with transformational and advanced economies. The comparative and factorial methods allowed to developthe features of the institutional environment of the budgetary progection methodology, to identify approaches for its improvement. Methodology. Substantiation of the role of budget forecasting in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes, determination of provisions for improving its methodology is based on generalized and systematic approaches that are applied in both developed and transformational economies. An analysis of the stages of the process and the budgetary projection methods evaluation, that are used in different countries, have been carried out. Results showed that the efficient budgetary projection methodology is the basis for sound fiscal policy. The development of realistic budgetary projections facilitates justified management decisions aimed at ensuring the country financial firmness. Devia-tions from budget revenues from the projected indicators do not make it possible to achieve certain fiscal policy outcomes and, accordingly, cause a budget cut. In order to develop realistic budgetary projections, a welldesigned and coherent database is needed for all time series, necessary to analyze and project budget revenues. Time series of key determinants affecting the budget revenues level should be available at different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, annually). Where data reflecting similar economic processes by different revenue sources are available, any differences between them shall be determined by reference to their coverage and methodology. Practical implications. Budgetary projections are the basis for the formation of effective fiscal policy and the benchmark of the reproduction process. Adequate level of justification for budget projection will help to provide a dynamic balance of budgetary indicators and the budgetary system stability. Institutional changes to the budgetary projection methodology should be made on the basis of taking into account the dynamic interrelation of budgetary and macroeconomic indicators. The remarkable task here is the development of an economic and mathematical model based on the assessment of the national economy capabilities by reference to the assessment of macroeconomic proportions and the corresponding social and economic conditions of social production. Value/ originality. Developing the budgetary projection approaches in the context of improvement of the fiscal policy efficiency is an important precondition for ensuring macroeconomic stability. In order to increase the budget projection justifiability, it is advisable to make institutional changes to its methodology. Based on the methioned above, the article reveals the essence and role of the budgetary projection in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes in the context of improving the fiscal policy effectiveness aimed at macroeconomic stability maintenance; approaches to improving the budgetary projection methodology have been identified, and it has been determined that the soundness and feasibility of budgetary projection are the basis for effective fiscal policy. The predictability of budgetary criteria, budgetary architectonics contribute to improving the efficiency of transformations in the public finance system.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Habtamu Girma DEMIESSIE

This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non-food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non-food prices, investment, employment and export shocks. The overall impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock is interpreted into the economy by resulting under consumption at least in the next three years since 2020. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. The potency of fiscal policies in stabilizing food, transport and communication prices go in line with the prevailing reality in Ethiopia where government has strong hands to control those markets directly and/or indirectly. This suggests market failure featuring COVID-19 time, calling for managed interventions of governments to promote market stabilities. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 213
Author(s):  
Igor Chugunov ◽  
Valentina Makohon

The purpose of the article is to justify the role of the fiscal strategy in ensuring macroeconomic stability and accelerating the pace of economic growth, disclose and substantiate its key objectives in the developed and transformational economies. The comparative and factor method allowed revealing the essence and role of the fiscal strategy as an instrument of economic growth, identifying peculiarities and substantiating approaches to the management of uncertainty of fiscal strategies, revealing the principles of the formation of the fiscal strategy and medium-term budget planning in Ukraine. Methodology. The substantiation of the role of the fiscal strategy in ensuring macroeconomic stability and accelerating the pace of economic growth, and definition of its key objectives are based on the generalization and systematization of the experience of countries with a developed and transformational economy. For this purpose, the analysis and evaluation of the fiscal policy were made, the peculiarities of the formation and implementation of fiscal strategies in the corresponding countries were determined. Results have shown that in developed countries, the GDP gap concept is used in order to use fiscal policy for countercyclical purposes. Budget sustainability is characterized by the ability of state and local government bodies to timely and fully finance budget expenditures and to support the share of budget deficits and public debt in the gross domestic product at an economically sound level. Budgetary stability is the constancy of budget architectonics in time. The essence of budget architectonics is the optimal ratio of budget, tax, social, monetary, and public debt components of the fiscal policy, which is a dynamic institutional process of its development and implementation in the relevant socio-economic conditions of the country’s development. At an appropriate level of budget stability, the level of fiscal burden on the economy does not increase. Fiscal equilibrium – consistency of budget revenues and expenditures. Practical implications. The benchmark of the fiscal strategy in terms of economic transformations should be to ensure macroeconomic stability and accelerate the pace of economic growth by increasing the soundness of budget architectonics. Value/originality. Strengthening the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors on the financial and economic environment of the state, and negative demographic tendencies on the development of society necessitate the development of a fiscal strategy as a dynamic self-organizing one with a fractal dimension and scale, the system of long-term financial and economic measures, goals, principles, directions, tasks that are implemented by public administration, in a multiaspect dimension: budget transformations, configurations of fiscal institutions, socio-economic transformations. The fractal dimension implies the formation of a system of long-term financial and economic measures, goals, principles, directions, tasks of the country’s fiscal policy based on the subsystems of the fiscal policy of regions with similar features, which will provide an opportunity to ensure consistency of actions of state authorities and local self-government bodies, constituents of the fiscal policy. The validity of the fiscal strategy determines the level of effectiveness of socio-economic transformations. In terms of economic transformations, budget architectonics, the institutional features of its formation are becoming increasingly difficult to assess in both developed and transformational economies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Igor Chugunov ◽  
Valentina Makohon ◽  
Tetniana Krykun

The purpose of the article is to study the role of fiscal policy in the context of the development of institutional budget architectonics aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability, boosting economic growth, strengthening human potential, improving public welfare and defining approaches to its formation in advanced and transition economies. Comparative and factor methods make it possible to cover the peculiarities of institutional environment of the formation of fiscal policy in EU countries and Ukraine in the context of the development of the institutional budget architectonics and to identify ways for its improvement. Methodology. Substantiation of the role of fiscal policy in terms of the development of institutional budget architectonics, determination of its strategic orientations are based on generalization and systematization of experience of advanced and transition economies. For this very reason, the authors analyse and assess the fiscal policy and define special aspects of the formation and implementation of its components in relevant countries. Results show that to increase the effectiveness of the fiscal policy, it is expedient to ensure its interrelation with other components of financial policy based on a combination of fiscal and motivation function. Effective institutional budget architectonics provides means for creating conditions for sustainable economic growth, achieving strategic goals of socio-economic development of the country. Significant tasks of the development of institutional budget architectonics are regulation of the ratio between direct and indirect tax revenues, the structure of budget expenditures in terms of functional, economic classifications, maintaining the budget gap and public debt at the level that contributes to the financial and economic stability of the country, taking into account economic cyclical nature. Practical implications. A feasible budget architectonics would facilitate the maintenance of macroeconomic stability and accelerate economic growth. It is expedient to carry out institutional changes of budget architectonics on the ground of dynamic interconnection of budget and macroeconomic indicators. Value/originality. Fiscal policy plays a significant part in the process of government regulation of socio-economic development of the country. Elaboration of fiscal policy approaches in the context of the development of institutional budget architectonics is an important prerequisite for improving the quality of budget planning, ensuring the strength, stability and dynamic balance of the budget system. It is advantageous to introduce adaptive institutional changes into the budget architectonics in order to accelerate economic growth. Therefore, the article covers the essence and role of institutional budget architectonics aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability, accelerating economic growth, developing human potential, improving public welfare; it defines the approaches to its development in transition and advanced economies. The authors establish that effective fiscal policy based on feasible institutional budget architectonics provides means for creating conditions for sustainable economic growth, achieving strategic goals of socio-economic development of the country.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habtamu Demiessie

<div>This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. <br></div><div>The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non food prices, investment, employment and export shocks.</div><div>The VAR estimate indicates that COVID-19 uncertainty shock results a massive rise in import in the six months following the outbreak of the pandemic. The finding in this regard is expected, as the pandemic triggers massive demand in food and pharmaceuticals, for which Ethiopia is import dependent on both items. In the next two years, however, the import bill of Ethiopia shows a decline. Reduction in aggregate demand (both consumption & investment expenditures) is one explanation for decline in import size in 2013 and 2014 E.C.</div><div>The price dynamics as forecasted in the upcoming three years in Ethiopia tells the direction of impacts of COVID-19 uncertainty shock to shake the macroeconomic order. The findings in this regard revealed the structural breakups of Ethiopian economy, characterized by its inability to withstand shocks. As signaled in forecasted price dynamics on both food and non food price indices, COVID-19 was a supply shock in its first time impact, but quickly transpasses to demand shock. And in the next few years the demand shock outweighs the supply shock. </div><div>The results of estimations indicate that food prices to sky rocketed at least until the end of 2014 E.C (2021/22 E.F.Y). On the other hand, except communication & hotel & restaurant prices, other components of non food price indices show a slump. The decline in non food price level is a clear showcase of under consumption characterizes the economic order in Ethiopia in the coming three years. </div><div>COVID-19 uncertainty shock puts huge loss in the investment sector in Ethiopia at least in the coming two years 2013 and 2014 E.C (2020/21-2021/22). In this regard, the pandemic effect transmitted to shake investment expenditure via the length of the pandemic period itself and export performances, both of which are exogenous shocks. </div><div>The study identified that general under consumption features the Ethiopian economy in the next couple of years. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found to be key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular. </div><div><br></div>


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (36) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elva Bova ◽  
Paulo Medas ◽  
Tigran Poghosyan ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Habtamu Demiessie

<div>This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. <br></div><div>The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non food prices, investment, employment and export shocks.</div><div>The VAR estimate indicates that COVID-19 uncertainty shock results a massive rise in import in the six months following the outbreak of the pandemic. The finding in this regard is expected, as the pandemic triggers massive demand in food and pharmaceuticals, for which Ethiopia is import dependent on both items. In the next two years, however, the import bill of Ethiopia shows a decline. Reduction in aggregate demand (both consumption & investment expenditures) is one explanation for decline in import size in 2013 and 2014 E.C.</div><div>The price dynamics as forecasted in the upcoming three years in Ethiopia tells the direction of impacts of COVID-19 uncertainty shock to shake the macroeconomic order. The findings in this regard revealed the structural breakups of Ethiopian economy, characterized by its inability to withstand shocks. As signaled in forecasted price dynamics on both food and non food price indices, COVID-19 was a supply shock in its first time impact, but quickly transpasses to demand shock. And in the next few years the demand shock outweighs the supply shock. </div><div>The results of estimations indicate that food prices to sky rocketed at least until the end of 2014 E.C (2021/22 E.F.Y). On the other hand, except communication & hotel & restaurant prices, other components of non food price indices show a slump. The decline in non food price level is a clear showcase of under consumption characterizes the economic order in Ethiopia in the coming three years. </div><div>COVID-19 uncertainty shock puts huge loss in the investment sector in Ethiopia at least in the coming two years 2013 and 2014 E.C (2020/21-2021/22). In this regard, the pandemic effect transmitted to shake investment expenditure via the length of the pandemic period itself and export performances, both of which are exogenous shocks. </div><div>The study identified that general under consumption features the Ethiopian economy in the next couple of years. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found to be key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular. </div><div><br></div>


2021 ◽  
pp. 934-955
Author(s):  
Tania Ajam

This chapter explores the trajectory of post-apartheid fiscal policy, focusing on the growth, equity, and sustainability trends between 2009 and 2019. Buoyed by the commodity boom, the African National Congress governing party strengthened fiscal institutions, improving the credibility and solvency of fiscal policy in the first fourteen years after the democratic transition. The decade after the global financial crisis in 2008 saw declining potential growth rates, deteriorating terms of trade, the institutionalization of state capture during the Zuma administration until 2018, policy uncertainty, widespread electricity outages, and a burgeoning public-sector wage bill. Rising deficits, debt, and state-owned-enterprise contingent liabilities triggered austerity without genuine fiscal consolidation. The coronavirus pandemic amplified these unsustainable trends arising from deferred structural fiscal adjustment.


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