Future-proofing estate landscapes

Climate change and urbanization have substantial ramifications for the management and protection of cultural-historical landscapes. This is especially true for historical estate landscapes – landscapes whose character is defined by several historical castles, country houses (along with their gardens and parks), and landed estates – where climate change adaptation constitutes a major task. Issues of concern include an excess or shortage of water and changes to vegetation as a result of rising temperatures. That pressure is compounded by increasing urbanization and the associated recreational needs. These landscapes are also susceptible to spatial fragmentation due to urbanization, changes in ownership, changes in function, and so on. Combatting these pressures calls for a future-oriented design approach that deals sensitively with historically valuable landscape characteristics. It involves safeguarding the spatial quality of estate landscapes by striking a new balance between utility value (economic exploitation), amenity value (identity and familiarity), and future value (ecological sustainability). Such is the complexity of the task that a regional perspective is required in order to fully comprehend the cohesion and systemic relations between individual country estates and to develop a common basis for collaboration. This article proposes a landscape-based regional design approach aimed at understanding and designing future-proof estate landscapes. It details a preservation-through-development strategy based on spatial development in sympathy with historical landscapes structures in a process of meaningful stakeholder involvement. Key to this process is collaboration and co-creation with owners, experts, policy advisers and others. Design-based research is employed as a method for addressing the complex spatial tasks facing estate landscapes in an integrated and creative manner. Spatial design, at every level of scale, becomes a instrument for working out development strategies and principles for context-specific landscape formation. But also for highlighting possible solutions that can contribute to the protection and development of historical estate landscapes. In other words, this is not about opposing change or locking up the existing landscape, but about creating new landscape qualities through well-designed new developments. This coincides with a collaborative process in which stakeholders jointly weigh the pros and cons, learn and come up with solutions. The combination of substance, involvement and process makes the landscape-based regional design approach a powerful method for increasing the resilience and adaptability of the estate landscape and in so doing making this landscape future-proof.

Estate landscapes in the Netherlands

In the past, country house research was mainly concerned with individual houses and gardens. Yet, as early as the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, so many country houses were being built around the major cities that they came to define the landscape. Genuine estate landscapes took shape along several rivers (Amstel, Vecht), along the inner edge of coastal dunes, and on newly reclaimed land. In the middle of the seventeenth century, the rivers were augmented with a network of barge canals and soon they too were lined by a belt of country houses. The greatest density of country houses was to be found around Amsterdam, but other big cities in the provinces of Holland and Zeeland had their fair share as well. Access was mostly by water, but in some areas, especially in Zeeland, country roads performed this role. The majority of country houses were built on or next to a farm, which generally continued to exist and, in many cases, survived the country house. In a few areas, the evolving density of country houses has been traced in a detailed chronological record. In most cases it reveals progressive growth towards a high point in the first half of the eighteenth century, after which a gradual decline sets in. However, in a number of areas growth was much more rapid, in particular along the River Vecht. Sustained growth was followed by decline. In the final decade of the eighteenth century and the first decade of the nineteenth, large numbers of country houses were demolished and in many instances the land reverted to agriculture production. It appears that the decline set in earlier in Zeeland than in Holland, but regional differences in decline are not yet entirely clear. The second quarter of the nineteenth century saw the construction of a new generation of country houses, especially in the undulating sandy areas of the Utrechtse Heuvelrug and the southern part of the Veluwezoom, where railway lines provided access. The owners of this new crop of country houses laid out their gardens in the English landscape style. They also bought up vast, neighbouring heathlands from local councils or farmers and planted them with trees. As a result, these country houses are quite different in character from those of the earlier period. In the past the concentrations of country houses dominated the landscape and even today, wherever they have survived to a substantial degree they continue to represent an important landscape quality. As such, protection and management should not be confined to individual country houses but should extend to groups of country houses and their interrelationships (in the form of visual axes, for example). In recent years, a number of provinces have already set a good example by formulating policies for country house biotopes and linear estate landscapes.

Prediction of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Russia based on simple mathematical models of epidemics

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic which began in 2020 and has taken more than five million lives has become a threat to the very existence of mankind. Therefore, predicting the spread of COVID-19 in each individual country is a very urgent task. The complexity of its solution is due to the requirement for fast processing of large amounts of data and the fact that the data are mostly inaccurate and do not have the statistical properties necessary for the successful application of statistical methods. Therefore, it seems important to develop simple forecasting methods based on classical simple models of epidemiology which are only weakly sensitive to data inaccuracies. It is also important to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in relation to the incidence data in Russia. Purpose: Obtaining forecast data based on classical simple models of epidemics, namely SIR and SEIR. Methods: For discrete versions of SIR and SEIR models, it is proposed to estimate the parameters of the models using a reduced version of the least squares method, and apply a scenario approach to the forecasting. The simplicity and a small number of parameters are the advantages of SIR and SEIR models, which is very important in the context of a lack of numerical input data and structural incompleteness of the models. Results: A forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Russia has been built based on published data on the incidence from March 10 to April 20, 2020, and then, selectively, according to October 2020 data and October 2021 data. The results of the comparison between SIR and SEIR forecasts are presented. The same method was used to construct and present forecasts based on morbidity data in the fall of 2020 and in the fall of 2021 for Russia and for St. Petersburg. To set the parameters of the models which are difficult to determine from the official data, a scenario approach is used: the dynamics of the epidemic is analyzed for several possible values of the parameters. Practical relevance: The results obtained show that the proposed method predicts well the time of the onset of the peak incidence, despite the inaccuracy of the initial data.

NZ Inc: New Zealand’s Whole-of-Government Approach to Peace Support Operations

<p>Into the late 1990s the international community began to develop new methods for assisting fragile states. It was recognised that development principles and practice were often insufficient to resolve the ‘complex operations’ they were entering. This was especially true when engaging states that lacked either the political commitment or the practical capacity to deliver basic social and public services. The defining feature of these operations is that assistance is required across all pillars of civil society – economic, law and justice, governance and public administration. Without effectively addressing each of these pillars there is a significant risk of systemic failure. A key challenge of engagement across these pillars is coordinating the growing number of contributions – both civilian and military. The whole-of-government approach has been promoted as a method to ameliorate this challenge. It is argued that the approach reduces departmental silos, promotes policy coherence, and provides efficiency while better addressing the complexity of the operating environment. While this may be true, the rhetoric is ill-defined and generates confusion as to what it means at a practical level. In short, it remains unclear how to achieve an efficient and effective whole-of-government approach or what that would actually look like. This thesis examines this dilemma and identifies the factors for successful implementation of New Zealand’s whole-of-government approach to peace support operations. Rather than concentrating on the formerly popular ‘machinery of government’ changes, this thesis argues that there are three overarching factors when implementing a whole-of-government approach. The first requirement is strategic direction from Government. This should come in the form of a national security statement and subsidiary individual country strategies. The second is culture change across the public sector. This focuses on the ‘soft issues’ such as organisational cultures, values and routines, professional beliefs, as well as institutional values and preferences. Significantly for peace support operations, this must be extended to promote a culture of education and awareness of host nation history and society. The third factor is accurate and flexible performance indicators and measurement to ensure that success can be identified and achieved. Effective execution of these factors will add value and promote excellence in New Zealand’s peace support operations.</p>

NZ Inc: New Zealand’s Whole-of-Government Approach to Peace Support Operations

<p>Into the late 1990s the international community began to develop new methods for assisting fragile states. It was recognised that development principles and practice were often insufficient to resolve the ‘complex operations’ they were entering. This was especially true when engaging states that lacked either the political commitment or the practical capacity to deliver basic social and public services. The defining feature of these operations is that assistance is required across all pillars of civil society – economic, law and justice, governance and public administration. Without effectively addressing each of these pillars there is a significant risk of systemic failure. A key challenge of engagement across these pillars is coordinating the growing number of contributions – both civilian and military. The whole-of-government approach has been promoted as a method to ameliorate this challenge. It is argued that the approach reduces departmental silos, promotes policy coherence, and provides efficiency while better addressing the complexity of the operating environment. While this may be true, the rhetoric is ill-defined and generates confusion as to what it means at a practical level. In short, it remains unclear how to achieve an efficient and effective whole-of-government approach or what that would actually look like. This thesis examines this dilemma and identifies the factors for successful implementation of New Zealand’s whole-of-government approach to peace support operations. Rather than concentrating on the formerly popular ‘machinery of government’ changes, this thesis argues that there are three overarching factors when implementing a whole-of-government approach. The first requirement is strategic direction from Government. This should come in the form of a national security statement and subsidiary individual country strategies. The second is culture change across the public sector. This focuses on the ‘soft issues’ such as organisational cultures, values and routines, professional beliefs, as well as institutional values and preferences. Significantly for peace support operations, this must be extended to promote a culture of education and awareness of host nation history and society. The third factor is accurate and flexible performance indicators and measurement to ensure that success can be identified and achieved. Effective execution of these factors will add value and promote excellence in New Zealand’s peace support operations.</p>

Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards

Regional assessments provide a large-scale comparable vision of the threat posed by multiple sources and are useful for prioritising risk-mitigation actions. There is a need for such assessments from international, regional and national agencies, industries and governments to prioritise where further study and support could be focussed. Most existing regional studies on the threat posed by volcanic activity have relied on concentric radii as proxies for hazard footprints and have focused only on population exposure, often using indices to make first-order estimates of exposure. However, this approach is an oversimplification of volcanic hazards and their associated impacts. We have developed and applied a new approach that quantifies and ranks exposure to multiple volcanic hazards for 40 high-threat volcanoes in Southeast Asia. For each of our 40 volcanoes, hazard spatial extent, and intensity where appropriate, was probabilistically modelled for four volcanic hazards across three eruption scenarios, giving 697,080 individual hazard footprints plus 19,560 probabilistic hazard outputs. We then developed a GIS framework to overlay the spatial extent of probabilistic hazard footprints with open-access datasets across five exposure categories. Finally, we used our calculated exposure values to rank each of the 40 volcanoes in terms of the threat they pose to surrounding communities. We present VolcGIS, an open-source Python code that implements all of the spatial operations required for exposure analysis, available at github.com/vharg/VolcGIS. We provide all our outputs - more than 6,500 geotif files and 70 independent estimates of exposure to volcanic hazards across 40 volcanoes - in user-friendly format. Results highlight that the island of Java in Indonesia has the highest median exposure to volcanic hazards, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest threat volcano. Hazard seasonality, as a result of varying wind conditions affecting tephra dispersal, leads to increased exposure values during the peak rainy season (January, February) in Java, but the peak dry season (January, February, March) in the Philippines. A key aim of our study was to highlight volcanoes that may have been overlooked, perhaps because they are not frequently or recently active, but that have the potential to affect large numbers of people and assets. It is not intended to replace official hazard and risk information provided by the individual country or volcano organisations. This study and the tools developed provide a road map for future multi-source regional volcanic exposure assessments, with the possibility to extend the assessment to other geographic regions and/or towards impact and loss.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome

Great progress has been made over the past 18 months in scientific understanding of the biology, epidemiology and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. Extraordinary advances have been made in vaccine development and the execution of clinical trials of possible therapies. However, uncertainties remain, and this review assesses these in the context of virus transmission, epidemiology, control by social distancing measures and mass vaccination and the effect on all of these on emerging variants. We briefly review the current state of the global pandemic, focussing on what is, and what is not, well understood about the parameters that control viral transmission and make up the constituent parts of the basic reproductive number R 0 . Major areas of uncertainty include factors predisposing to asymptomatic infection, the population fraction that is asymptomatic, the infectiousness of asymptomatic compared to symptomatic individuals, the contribution of viral transmission of such individuals and what variables influence this. The duration of immunity post infection and post vaccination is also currently unknown, as is the phenotypic consequences of continual viral evolution and the emergence of many viral variants not just in one location, but globally, given the high connectivity between populations in the modern world. The pattern of spread of new variants is also examined. We review what can be learnt from contact tracing, household studies and whole-genome sequencing, regarding where people acquire infection, and how households are seeded with infection since they constitute a major location for viral transmission. We conclude by discussing the challenges to attaining herd immunity, given the uncertainty in the duration of vaccine-mediated immunity, the threat of continued evolution of the virus as demonstrated by the emergence and rapid spread of the Delta variant, and the logistics of vaccine manufacturing and delivery to achieve universal coverage worldwide. Significantly more support from higher income countries (HIC) is required in low- and middle-income countries over the coming year to ensure the creation of community-wide protection by mass vaccination is a global target, not one just for HIC. Unvaccinated populations create opportunities for viral evolution since the net rate of evolution is directly proportional to the number of cases occurring per unit of time. The unit for assessing success in achieving herd immunity is not any individual country, but the world.

Helping Small Business cope during COVID-19: A brief survey of measures implemented across countries

This paper offers a brief review of current studies with regards to the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses across countries. This survey of experiences elsewhere might provide insights to policy makers in countries that are struggling to cope with the problem on the initiatives to consider and the additional initiatives that might be necessary to make them effective in their individual country contexts. Given limitations of space, we survey only a limited sample of countries from Asia and Europe, along the US and Canada. Hopefully, their experiences will provide a broad enough spectrum of initiatives for policy makers elsewhere to consider and evaluate. Keywords: Small Business, COVID-19, Impact, Literature Review

Cultural Differences in the Association of Harsh Parenting with Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms: A Meta-Analysis

The goal of the present meta-analysis was to compare associations of harsh parenting with internalizing and externalizing symptoms across regions of the globe and ethnic groups, and to search for moderator effects of indicators of cultural normativeness of harsh parenting. The systematic search in electronic databases and cross-referencing identified 971 studies. Random-effects meta-analyses were computed on bivariate and cross-lagged associations. Harsh parenting was associated with more internalizing and externalizing symptoms in all assessed regions of the globe and in all compared ethnic groups within western countries. Cross-lagged statistical effects of harsh parenting on change in child symptoms were found in North America, Western Europe, Latin America, East Asia, South-East Asia, and North Africa/the Arabian Peninsula, while there were no data from Eastern Europe. In line with the cultural normativeness hypothesis, a few moderating effects of the legal ban of physical punishment of children, acceptance and prevalence of physical punishment, and individualism-collectivism were identified. Externalizing symptoms predicted a stronger increase in harsh parenting if physical punishment was more accepted in the individual country. However, national levels of acceptance of physical punishment did not affect associations of harsh parenting with change in child outcomes. Although most associations of harsh parenting with child symptoms were statistically small (bivariate associations) or very small (cross-lagged associations), it is concluded that parents across the globe should be recommended to avoid harsh parenting. More longitudinal studies are needed for analyzing regional differences in parent and child effects.

COVID-19 vaccination intention and vaccine characteristics influencing vaccination acceptance: a global survey of 17 countries

Background The availability of various types of COVID-19 vaccines and diverse characteristics of the vaccines present a dilemma in vaccination choices, which may result in individuals refusing a particular COVID-19 vaccine offered, hence presenting a threat to immunisation coverage and reaching herd immunity. The study aimed to assess global COVID-19 vaccination intention, vaccine characteristics influencing vaccination acceptance and desirable vaccine characteristics influencing the choice of vaccines. Methods An anonymous cross-sectional survey was conducted between 4 January and 5 March 2021 in 17 countries worldwide. Proportions and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and vaccine characteristics influencing vaccination acceptance were generated and compared across countries and regions. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Results Of the 19,714 responses received, 90.4% (95% CI 81.8–95.3) reported likely or extremely likely to receive COVID-19 vaccine. A high proportion of likely or extremely likely to receive the COVID-19 vaccine was reported in Australia (96.4%), China (95.3%) and Norway (95.3%), while a high proportion reported being unlikely or extremely unlikely to receive the vaccine in Japan (34.6%), the U.S. (29.4%) and Iran (27.9%). Males, those with a lower educational level and those of older age expressed a higher level of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Less than two-thirds (59.7%; 95% CI 58.4–61.0) reported only being willing to accept a vaccine with an effectiveness of more than 90%, and 74.5% (95% CI 73.4–75.5) said they would accept a COVID-19 vaccine with minor adverse reactions. A total of 21.0% (95% CI 20.0–22.0) reported not accepting an mRNA vaccine and 51.8% (95% CI 50.3–53.1) reported that they would only accept a COVID-19 vaccine from a specific country‐of‐origin. Countries from the Southeast Asia region reported the highest proportion of not accepting mRNA technology. The highest proportion from Europe and the Americas would only accept a vaccine produced by certain countries. The foremost important vaccine characteristic influencing vaccine choice is adverse reactions (40.6%; 95% CI 39.3–41.9) of a vaccine and effectiveness threshold (35.1%; 95% CI 33.9–36.4). Conclusions The inter-regional and individual country disparities in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy highlight the importance of designing an efficient plan for the delivery of interventions dynamically tailored to the local population. Graphic Abstract