Impact of Exports on the Exporter’s Domestic Market

This paper developed a theoretical model of partial equilibrium of the export-oriented market for a short-term period, as well as outlined the main approaches to modeling equilibrium in a long-term period. Thus, the competition between the producers of the selected exporting country and its global competitor in the external import-dependent market is considered. In the partial equilibrium model, for the first time, the domestic and foreign sales markets are presented together. The analysis of the theoretical model made it possible to obtain the following results for the short-term period: in a state close to equilibrium, external supplies of the exporting country are positively related to their own production volumes and negatively – ​with the production volumes of the global exporter; the price of the domestic market of the exporting country is negatively related to the volume of its own production and the volume of production of the global exporter. The paper analyzes three scenarios that allow checking the adequacy of the partial equilibrium model for different conditions of its application. The first scenario considers a negative supply shock associated with a drop in production in a global exporter. The second analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the global exporter and exporting country. The third scenario is devoted to assessing the impact of a demand shock on a designated exporting country. The scenarios confirmed the adequacy of the model. The approach to modeling an export-oriented market for a long-term period is based on the assumption that the exporter's price will converge with the price of the domestic market over time and, ultimately, will differ from it only by the amount of additional costs associated with the export of a unit of production. It was established that, while maintaining exogenous conditions for positive long-term export dynamics, the price of the domestic market of the exporting country will decrease in case of an increase in the incremental values of exports and production volumes of the global exporter. The consequences of the positive dynamics of exports for the domestic demand of the exporting country are considered. The established relationships between exports and sales in the exporter's domestic market were empirically confirmed by the example of the Russian sunflower oil market.

How Digitization Lowers Oil & Gas Industry Break Even Cost

The Oil&Gas industry has experienced three price crises over the past twelve years. Swings in the key variables of politics, economy and technology affect supply and demand dynamics and consequently oil prices. The rise of unconventional sources brought the industry into a recurrent surplus of supply, putting pressure on prices and the combination of a supply shock, shortage of storage and an unprecedent demand drop brought prices to a 30-years low in April 2020. Although volatile oil prices make it challenging for oil companies to manage their markets, the silver lining in low oil prices is that it forced the industry to focus on rendering their internal operations more efficient. O&G producers cut their costs dramatically to remain profitable. The industry embarked on an optimization path and consequently accelerated the adoption of digital transformation. The COVID-19 crisis along with increasing societal pressure has only been a catalyzer to this digital transformation, unlocking significant operational improvements and reducing carbon emissions. According to the latest Rystad Energy analysis average breakeven price dropped 35% between 2014 and 2018, and an additional 10% over the last 2 years, to a $50 breakeven price per barrel.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Stockpiling Behavior over Time in China

Studying the impact of COVID-19 on consumer food stockpiling behavior is timely and imperative. It can provide important information and help to understand whether consumers permanently change their behavior or return to their old habits in the long run. This study analyzed Chinese consumers’ food stockpiling behavior using six rounds of nationwide surveys in China from December 2020 to July 2021. The results show that the scale of food reserves extended from 3.03 to 10.01 days after the outbreak of COVID-19, then dropped to a “new normal” plateau and kept fluctuating with the tide of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers who stockpile food for “Avoiding shortage” and “Pursuing ease” are going to stockpile food on a larger scale, implying a supply shock may affect the demand side. Those who perceive a higher level of severity of the pandemic are less likely to return to their old habits. Finally, although consumers’ food stockpiling behavior fluctuates with the tide of COVID-19 pandemic, it gradually returns to old habits over time.

Disruptions in global value chains due to COVID-19: stylized facts and policy lessons

This paper provides an early assessment of global value chains (GVCs) amid the disruptive effects of COVID-19 on world trade. Using the Asian Development Bank’s updated Multiregional Input-Output Table, key indicators were estimated to identify important stylized facts about the contraction of GVC activities in 2020. Econometric models were also estimated to analyze the disruptive effect of COVID-19 outbreaks and stringent containment measures on GVC trade. The input-output analysis confirms that all major economic sectors suffered large losses, especially services. However, the bulk of the decline in overall GVC trade can still be traced to lower backward transactions in manufacturing. On the aggregate level, stronger backward GVC participation was associated with relatively milder contraction while the opposite was observed for forward participation. The regressions showed that positive growth of GVC trade was less likely in sectors with relatively larger exposure to foreign downstream shocks. Further, the combined effects of stringent containment measures and severe COVID-19 outbreaks also reduced the probability of growth in both backward and forward GVC transactions. These findings indicate that on top of foreign suppliers’ internal disruptions (foreign supply shock), weak global consumption (foreign demand shock) and local producers’ domestic sourcing problems (local supply shock) contributed to the steep contraction of GVCs in 2020. Against this background, the major challenges to robust recovery were also identified. These include the downside risks of a prolonged pandemic, the resurgence of protectionist tendencies, the strength of global demand, the reconfiguration of broken supply chains, and the ability of countries to coordinate their actions especially with respect to vaccination.

The time-varying and volatile macroeconomic effects of immigration

This paper studies the impact of immigration on the US macroeconomy. I identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with time-varying parameters (TVPs) and stochastic volatility (SV) using a novel set of restrictions. The TVP-SV-SVARs are estimated on a quarterly sample including average labor productivity (ALP), hours worked, immigration, consumption, and term spread from 1953 to 2017. An immigration supply shock increases domestic ALP and hours worked over the business cycle horizons. Movements in immigration are explained by its own shock and to a lesser extent by the productivity and news shocks. IRFs driven by these shocks vary over the sample, especially around changes in immigration policy such as the Immigration Act of 1990. In contrast, the forecast error variance decompositions exhibit little change over the sample. Immigration plays an important role in the US macroeconomy.

Coronacrisis in the Mechanisms of Cyclic Development of the World and Russian Economies

Based on the theory of the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction in its various (including modern) variations, the author of the article defends the thesis that the pandemic of the new coronavirus was not the root cause of the crisis in the world economy in 2020, but only a factor of its approach in time. Excessive, in the spirit of modern radical liberalism, marketization (commercialization) of country health systems and the desire of a number of nation states to use a large-scale epidemic as a powerful bioengineering weapon are classified as the most significant direct determinants of the global coronacrisis. The mechanism of the influence of the coronavirus epidemic on the state of the world economy is revealed. An attempt is made to compare the coronavirus crisis and the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009 with an assessment of the change in the balance of forces between the leading powers in the course of the deployment of these crises. As a «visiting card», the specifics of the current global crisis is characterized by a negative combination of supply shock and demand shock, which radically complicates the construction of an adequate system of anti-crisis regulation of the world and national economies. The place of coronacrisis shocks in the mechanism of the deepening of the Russian autonomous recession is revealed. The effectiveness of the anti-crisis activities of the Government and the Bank of Russia is constructively and critically assessed.

Keynesian Supply Shocks and Hayekian Secondary Deflations

In response to the COVID-19 lockdown policies, Guerrieri et al. (2020) developed a new concept: the Keynesian supply shock. A Keynesian supply shock is an aggregate supply shock that leads to an even larger aggregate demand shock. This paper suggests that Keynesian supply shocks are very similar to the secondary deflations suggested by Hayek (1931), and US data from the 2007–09 financial crisis show that these concepts may help to explain employment dynamics in the midst of a crisis. This fact implies that long-standing policy advice based on Austrian business cycle theory would be useful in responding to Keynesian supply shocks.

Demand or supply shock during the COVID-19 crisis: empirical evidence from public firms in Indonesia

Purpose In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm’s access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm’s capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach The change in firms’ capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms’ investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms’ capital expenditure. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia.

Extreme Events, Entrepreneurial Start-Ups, and Innovation: Theoretical Conjectures

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, we scrutinize what has been established in the literature on whether entrepreneurship can cause and resolve extreme events, the immediate and long-run impacts of extreme events on entrepreneurship, and whether extreme events can positively impact (some) entrepreneurship and innovation. Based on this, we utilize a partial equilibrium model to provide several conjectures on the impact of COVID-19 on entrepreneurship, and to derive policy recommendations for recovery. We illustrate that while entrepreneurship recovery will benefit from measures such as direct subsidies for start-ups, firms’ revenue losses, and loan liabilities, it will also benefit from aggregate demand-side support and income redistribution measures, as well as from measures that facilitate the innovation-response to the Keynesian supply-shock caused by the pandemic, such as access to online retail and well-functioning global transportation and logistics.

The Role of Marketplace Lending in Credit Markets: Evidence from Bank Mergers

We develop a model of competition between banks and a marketplace lender to motivate empirical tests using local market data on U.S. banks and the largest marketplace lending platform. Employing mergers of large, multimarket banks as an exogenous credit supply shock, we find that marketplace lending absorbs unmet demand for consumer credit following a decline in the availability of bank credit. Merger-induced bank branch closings lead to an increase in marketplace loan requests and loan acceptance rates, particularly for debt consolidation loans to lower-risk consumers. We also find that marketplace lending mitigates credit distress in local economies affected by mergers. This paper was accepted by Tomasz Piskorski, finance.