scholarly journals Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Plamen Iossifov ◽  
Tomas Dutra Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Stress Indicators ◽  
Composite Indices ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Level

We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.

The challenges of inclusive growth for the developmental welfare state

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huck-ju Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
What Works ◽  
Nation States ◽  
The Social ◽  
The One ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

One of the biggest challenges for developing a new more productivist social policy approach has been the apparent absence of a new, post-neoliberal, economic model even after the global financial crisis. This chapter explores the social policy implications of the official ‘pragmatism’ of the new economic model with its ‘institutionalist’ emphases on nation states finding what works best in their own contexts rather than looking to the one size fits all approach of recent decades.

scholarly journals Lessons and Policy Implications From the Global Financial Crisis

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (44) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn Claessens ◽  
Luc Laeven ◽  
Deniz Igan ◽  
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

scholarly journals Determinants of failure in Greek manufacturing SMEs

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthalia Tabouratzi ◽  
Christos Lemonakis ◽  
Alexandros Garefalakis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Z Score ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The globalization and the global financial crisis provide a new extremely competitive environment for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). During the latest years, the increased number of firms’ default has generated the need of understanding the factors of firms’ default, as SMEs in periods of financial crisis suffer from lack of financial resources and expensive bank lending. We use a sample of 3600 Greek manufacturing firms (9 Sectors), covering the time period of 2003-2011 (9 years). We run a panel regression model with correction for fixed effects in both the cross-section and period dimensions using as dependent variable the calculated Z-Score of each firm, and as independent variables several financial ratios, as well as the exporting activity and the use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS Accounting Standards).We find that firms presenting higher performance in terms of ROA and sales and higher leverage levels that enhance their liquidity as well are healthier in terms of Z-score than their less profitable counterparts and acquire lower rates of probability of default: in other words, less risk. The results of the study can lead to policy implications for both Managers and the Government in order to enhance the growth of Greek manufacturing sector.

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Volatility Spillover in South Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77
Author(s):  
Hafiz Rauf Iqbal ◽  
Syed Kashif Saeed ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Impact

Purpose - This study examines the volatility spillovers in the presence of structural breaks with specific reference to South Asian Capital markets. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has compelled policymakers to realize that financial instability has the potential to threaten economic stability and growth; therefore, managing the financial crisis is inevitable. To manage the impact of financial crises, understanding the dynamics of volatility spillover across various markets is imperative. This study has investigated the possible emergence of structural breaks in risk patterns after global financial crises in south Asian markets. Methodology - Using the data from July 2002 to June 2016, employing the Exponential GARCH methodology. Findings - This study finds a significant volatility spillover after the financial crisis of 2007-09. Therefore, the existence of a structural break in the risk pattern of south Asian capital markets cannot be fully rejected. Policy Implications - This conclusion is of prime importance to policymakers in devising policy guidelines concerning financial crises.

scholarly journals Systemic Risk Contribution and Contagion of Industrial Sectors in China: From the Global Financial Crisis to the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jianxu Liu ◽  
Yangnan Cheng ◽  
Yefan Zhou ◽  
Xiaoqing Li ◽  
Hongyu Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Risk Contribution ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Over Time

This paper investigates the risk contribution of 29 industrial sectors to the China stock market by using one-factor with Durante generator copulas (FDG) and component expected shortfall (CES) analyses. Risk contagion between the systemically most important sector and other sectors is examined using a copula-based ∆CoVaR approach. The data cover the 2008 global financial crisis and the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results show that the banking sector contributed most to systemic risk before and during the global financial crisis. Nonbank finance became equally important in 2020, and the COVID-19 pandemic promoted the position of the computer and pharmaceuticals sectors. The spillover effect diminishes over time, but there remains risk contagion between sectors. The risk spillover trend is consistent with that of systemic risk.

scholarly journals The Leaders, the Laggers, and the “Vulnerables”

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Veni Arakelian ◽  
Shatha Qamhieh Hashem
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Expected Shortfall ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Network Structures ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
Marginal Expected Shortfall ◽  
The Individual

We examine the lead-lag effect between the large and the small capitalization financial institutions by constructing two global weekly rebalanced indices. We focus on the 10% of stocks that “survived” all the rebalancings by remaining constituents of the indices. We sort them according to their systemic importance using the marginal expected shortfall (MES), which measures the individual institutions’ vulnerability over the market, the network based MES, which captures the vulnerability of the risks generated by institutions’ interrelations, and the Bayesian network based MES, which takes into account different network structures among institutions’ interrelations. We also check if the lead-lag effect holds in terms of systemic risk implying systemic risk transmission from the large to the small capitalization, concluding a mixed behavior compared to the index returns. Additionally, we find that all the systemic risk indicators increase their magnitude during the financial crisis.

Lehren aus der Krise – Notwendige Änderungen der Finanzmarktregeln und zur Begrenzung systemischer Risiken

2009 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Otmar Issing ◽  
Stephany Griffith-Jones ◽  
Stefano Pagliari ◽  
Claudia M. Buch ◽  
Katja Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Market Failure ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemic Risks ◽  
State And Market ◽  
Bank For International Settlements ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

AbstractThe latest financial crisis has been caused by a mixture of state and market failure, argues Otmar Issing. To avoid future crises, more transparency is needed - not by gathering more information, but by gathering it systematically and thereby creating “intelligent transparency”. Furthermore, regulation has to be global, he states. The necessary institutions are in place: The International Monetary Fund, the Financial Stability Board and the Bank for International Settlements.Stephany Griffith-Jones and Stefano Pagliari point out, that containing “systemic risk” is one of the most important rationales for regulating financial markets. Our understanding of the sources of systemic risk has repeatedly been challenged by major episodes of financial instability. The crisis that started in the summer of 2007 has been no exception. They discuss how the latest global financial crisis urges analysts and regulators to rethink the origin of systemic risk beyond a narrow focus on the banking sector, beyond the “too big to fail problem”, and beyond a narrow micro-prudential focus. They focus on two regulatory principles: comprehensiveness and countercyclicality.Claudia Buch und Katja Neugebauer review the existing empirical evidence on whether the increase in cross-border activities has allowed banks to diversify risks and to what extent it has increased banks’ exposure to systemic risks.

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