An Empirical Assessment of CAPM, Market Model and APT: Evidence from the Greek Stock Market

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-118
Author(s):  
Petros Messis ◽  
George Emmanuel Iatridis ◽  
George Blanas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Athens Stock Exchange ◽  
Better Than

This paper uses three models to estimate the financial performance of 33 securities traded on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). To estimate the expected returns, this study uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Market Model, and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). There is significant evidence that the APT performs better than the CAPM and the Market Model, while the differences between the CAPM and the Market Model appear not to be significant. The three models are tested for a five-year period from 2000 to 2005. Total risk is significantly negatively related to returns during down markets, while this relationship is positive but not significant in up markets. There is evidence that, apart from the market risk, other risk factors that influence the stock returns are the inflation rate and the exchange rate.

GARCH Risk Assessment of Inflation and Industrial Production Factors on Pakistan Stocks

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Shehla Akhtar ◽  
Benish Javed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
The Garch Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The purpose of the study was to measure the risk the return relationship of inflation and industrial production as macroeconomic variables against stock returns. The study extends the literature by using the GARCH model instead of the traditional Arbitrage Pricing Theory or the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample consisted of 50 companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) in Pakistan. The data collection encompassed the period from July 1998 to December 2008. The macro economic indicators were inflation rate and growth rate of industrial production. The techniques included regression and first order Augmented Dick Fuller test (since it was a time series). The authors found a significant relationship between the macro economic indicators of inflation and industrial production against the sampled KSE returns. The sensitivity coefficients of industrial production and inflation were negative which indicated real sector risk and inflation unfavorably impacted the sampled KSE returns.

scholarly journals CAPM or APT? A Comparison of Two Asset Pricing Models for Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cung Huck Khoon ◽  
Ahmadu Umaru Sanda ◽  
G.S Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Monthly Return ◽  
Pricing Theory

This study uses monthly return data on 213 stocks listed on the main board of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, Malaysia for the period September 1988 to June 1997 to compare two frequently cited asset pricing models: the capital asset pricing model, CAPM and the arbitrage pricing theory, APT. A comparison was performed along the lines of Chen (1983) and the results showed the APT to perform better than the CAP/ in explaining the variations in cross section of returns. The implication for investors is that the market index is but one of several sources of risk, which should be taken into account in any decision governing investment in the stock market.  

scholarly journals Autoregression Vector Prediction on Banking Stock Return using CAPM Model Approach and Multi-Factor APT (IJCIET)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andysah Putera Utama Siahaan ◽  
Rusiadi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Model Method ◽  
Pricing Theory

This study aims to predict banking stock returns in Indonesia. The problem under study is the difficulty of determining banking stock returns. This study uses the VAR approach by comparing CAPM and APT. The results show the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method through RF (Return Risk-Free Assets) is more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. In the medium term, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method through RF (Return Risk-Free Assets) is more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. In the long run, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method is also more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. Model specifications formed using the Roots of Characteristic Polynomial and Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial obtained stable results; it can be shown that all roots units are in the Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial circle.

Asset Pricing Through Downside Risk Based Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Pricing Theory

This study extends the downside risk applications in multifactor asset pricing model by incorporating the downside risk spillovers from economic and financial factors to stock returns. We amplify the conventional APT model by replacing the variance-based betas with semivariance based downside betas that better capture the risk volatilities in varying market conditions. The inclusion of downside risk betas based on semivariance and semideviation methods in the augmented asset pricing model improves both the theoretical and methodological applications relative to the limitations and restriction of conventional APT factors model. The mean-variance hypothesis replaced by meansemivariance hypothesis and asymmetric behaviour of stock returns distribution, empirically suggest the use of an alternative factors model. The models based on downside risk premia for asset pricing in emerging markets. The study tested the downside risk-return relationship based on the excess monthly stock returns of listed PSX firms and observed economic, financial and global factors representing spillover triangulation from 1997 to 2017. The findings of the study indicate that the augmented DR-APT model with pricing restrictions of unconditional linear factors method could not be deserted over the targeted period of study. The selected observed pricing factors except exports are significant enough for pricing the security returns in the augmented DR-APT Model. Findings of the panel regression, likelihood ratio tests and F-test corroborate DR-APT as a better model to price stock returns in volatile situations compare to conventional APT model. Our findings are consistent with the downside risk-return framework based on mean semi variance hypothesis and have implications for managers and decision markets that incorporate downside risk in asset valuation, cost of capital estimations, portfolio construction and investment analysis decisions. Key Words: Downside Risk, Semi variance, Semi covariance, Downside Beta, Downside risk-based Arbitrage Pricing Theory (DR-APT).

scholarly journals Analisis Perbandingan Capital Asset Pricing Model Dan Arbitrage Pricing Theory dalam Memprediksi Return Saham pada Perusahaan Telekomunikasi Periode 2016-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 689-698
Author(s):  
Tri Wahyuni ◽  
Eni Kaharti
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

This research aims to determine the influence of each model of balance used for determining the return of shares measured by CAPM and APT in telecommunications sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2016-2018. The data collection method uses purposive sampling.  The population used in this research is the stock price on telecommunication  telecommunications sectors listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The purpose of this research is to compare the accuracy of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in estimating the return of telecommunication stock return. From the results of the Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) value has a small difference. Based on the results of Independent Sample T-Test can be concluded that there is no significant difference between CAPM and APT method in predicting the return of telecommunications stocks return.

scholarly journals Arbitrage Pricing Theory Model Application on Tobacco and Cigarette Industry in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Sakina Ichsani ◽  
Neneng Susanti ◽  
Agatha Rinta Suhardi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Cigarette Industry ◽  
Pricing Theory

The purpose of this study was to applicant the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model in the tobacco and cigarette industry listed on the IDX. The APT model in this study uses macroeconomic variables consisting of exports, inflation, exchange rates, GDP and economic growth. Object of this research is companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2012-2017 using monthly periods, which is Gudang Garam Tbk., Handjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk., and Bentoel International Investama Tbk. This study uses quantitative methods and analysis will be used with regression analysis methods and data processed using Eviews 10. The results of the study show that there are simultaneous effects between the variables of exports (X1), inflation (X2), exchange rates (X3), GDP (X4), and economic growth (X5) on stock returns (Y). There is a significant positive effect between economic growth on stock returns, while there is a significant negative effect between inflation on stock returns and GDP on stock returns. While exports do not affect the stock returns of the tobacco and cigarette industry as well as the exchange rate does not affect stock returns. Suggestions for investors are if investors are going to invest in the tobacco and cigarette industry, then investors should pay attention to the macroeconomic conditions that affect stocks, while for companies can minimize the risks that might occur through agreements between the destination countries for cigarette sales.

scholarly journals PENGUJIAN ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) SEBAGAI PREDICTOR PENGEMBALIAN SAHAM YANG DIHARAPKAN ( STUDI KASUS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA)

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanda Daisy Prully Rundengan ◽  
Tommy Parengkuan ◽  
Ivonne Saerang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Actual Return ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dependent Samples

The impact of the economic crisis caused investors have difficulty in analyzing and predicting stock returns of the company. No exception to the banking industry shares are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). In predicting stock returns are expected, there are two models that are often used by investors, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT). APT basically use reasoning stating that two investment opportunities that have the same characteristics identical bias not sold with different prices. The concept used is hokum one price (the law of one price). Analysis used in the study is the analysis of two different test average. Where comparing ten banking industry Stock Exchange Securities registered Indonesian (IDX). After conducting a hypothesis test using the SPSS output in the form of test results obtained bedadua average dependent samples, bahwathitung for APT testing by comparing the actual return (Ri) and expected return (ERI) stock with a variance equal to propabilitas assumet is 0.290 0,1.620. Therefore, P-value 0.290> 0.05, results showed that the expected return is not berbedas ignifikan with actual return (significant 0.290) This means that the hypothesis stated:. "Allegedly expected return results Arbitrage Pricing Theory model predictions with actual return on the banking industry that went public in the Indonesia Stock Exchange rejected. Therefore, the expected return does not differ significantly from the actual return the Arbitrage Pricing Theory Accurate models. Results of research conducted by the author, states that testing APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) by comparing Actual return (Ri) with Expected return (ERI) to measure stock returns is no difference. This means that the APT does not affect stock returns padaindustri banks that went public on the stock exchanges of Indonesia.

scholarly journals PENGUKURAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) (Studi Kasus : Saham-saham LQ45)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dedi Baleo Pasaribu ◽  
Di Asih I Maruddani ◽  
Sugito Sugito
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

Investing is placing money or funds in the hope of obtaining additional or specific gains on the money or funds. The capital market is one place to invest in the financial field of interest to investor. This is because the capital market gives investor the freedom to choose securities traded in the capital market in accordance with the wishes of investor. Investor are included in risk averter, that means investor will always try to avoid risk. To avoid risk, investor try to diversify their investment. Diversification concept commonly used is portfolio. To maximize the return to be earned, the investor will invest his funds into several stocks in order to earn a greater profit. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a balance model that describes the relation of a risk with return more simply because it uses only one variable to describe the risk. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a balance model that used many risk variables to see the relation of risk and return. With both models will be obtained a portfolio with each constituent stock is four stocks selected from 45 stocks in the LQ45 index. To find out which portfolio is the best performed a performance analysis using the Sharpe index. From the measurement result, it is found that the best portfolio is the CAPM portfolio with composite stock is PTBA with investment weight of 0.467%, BUMI with investment weight of 12.855%, ANTM with investment weight of 53.077% and PPRO with investment weight of 33.601%. Keywords: LQ45, portfolio, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory                       (APT), Sharpe Index 

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