scholarly journals Arbitrage Pricing Theory Model Application on Tobacco and Cigarette Industry in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Sakina Ichsani ◽  
Neneng Susanti ◽  
Agatha Rinta Suhardi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Cigarette Industry ◽  
Pricing Theory

The purpose of this study was to applicant the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model in the tobacco and cigarette industry listed on the IDX. The APT model in this study uses macroeconomic variables consisting of exports, inflation, exchange rates, GDP and economic growth. Object of this research is companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2012-2017 using monthly periods, which is Gudang Garam Tbk., Handjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk., and Bentoel International Investama Tbk. This study uses quantitative methods and analysis will be used with regression analysis methods and data processed using Eviews 10. The results of the study show that there are simultaneous effects between the variables of exports (X1), inflation (X2), exchange rates (X3), GDP (X4), and economic growth (X5) on stock returns (Y). There is a significant positive effect between economic growth on stock returns, while there is a significant negative effect between inflation on stock returns and GDP on stock returns. While exports do not affect the stock returns of the tobacco and cigarette industry as well as the exchange rate does not affect stock returns. Suggestions for investors are if investors are going to invest in the tobacco and cigarette industry, then investors should pay attention to the macroeconomic conditions that affect stocks, while for companies can minimize the risks that might occur through agreements between the destination countries for cigarette sales.

Asset Pricing Through Downside Risk Based Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Pricing Theory

This study extends the downside risk applications in multifactor asset pricing model by incorporating the downside risk spillovers from economic and financial factors to stock returns. We amplify the conventional APT model by replacing the variance-based betas with semivariance based downside betas that better capture the risk volatilities in varying market conditions. The inclusion of downside risk betas based on semivariance and semideviation methods in the augmented asset pricing model improves both the theoretical and methodological applications relative to the limitations and restriction of conventional APT factors model. The mean-variance hypothesis replaced by meansemivariance hypothesis and asymmetric behaviour of stock returns distribution, empirically suggest the use of an alternative factors model. The models based on downside risk premia for asset pricing in emerging markets. The study tested the downside risk-return relationship based on the excess monthly stock returns of listed PSX firms and observed economic, financial and global factors representing spillover triangulation from 1997 to 2017. The findings of the study indicate that the augmented DR-APT model with pricing restrictions of unconditional linear factors method could not be deserted over the targeted period of study. The selected observed pricing factors except exports are significant enough for pricing the security returns in the augmented DR-APT Model. Findings of the panel regression, likelihood ratio tests and F-test corroborate DR-APT as a better model to price stock returns in volatile situations compare to conventional APT model. Our findings are consistent with the downside risk-return framework based on mean semi variance hypothesis and have implications for managers and decision markets that incorporate downside risk in asset valuation, cost of capital estimations, portfolio construction and investment analysis decisions. Key Words: Downside Risk, Semi variance, Semi covariance, Downside Beta, Downside risk-based Arbitrage Pricing Theory (DR-APT).

scholarly journals PENGUJIAN ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) SEBAGAI PREDICTOR PENGEMBALIAN SAHAM YANG DIHARAPKAN ( STUDI KASUS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA)

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanda Daisy Prully Rundengan ◽  
Tommy Parengkuan ◽  
Ivonne Saerang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Actual Return ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dependent Samples

The impact of the economic crisis caused investors have difficulty in analyzing and predicting stock returns of the company. No exception to the banking industry shares are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). In predicting stock returns are expected, there are two models that are often used by investors, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT). APT basically use reasoning stating that two investment opportunities that have the same characteristics identical bias not sold with different prices. The concept used is hokum one price (the law of one price). Analysis used in the study is the analysis of two different test average. Where comparing ten banking industry Stock Exchange Securities registered Indonesian (IDX). After conducting a hypothesis test using the SPSS output in the form of test results obtained bedadua average dependent samples, bahwathitung for APT testing by comparing the actual return (Ri) and expected return (ERI) stock with a variance equal to propabilitas assumet is 0.290 0,1.620. Therefore, P-value 0.290> 0.05, results showed that the expected return is not berbedas ignifikan with actual return (significant 0.290) This means that the hypothesis stated:. "Allegedly expected return results Arbitrage Pricing Theory model predictions with actual return on the banking industry that went public in the Indonesia Stock Exchange rejected. Therefore, the expected return does not differ significantly from the actual return the Arbitrage Pricing Theory Accurate models. Results of research conducted by the author, states that testing APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) by comparing Actual return (Ri) with Expected return (ERI) to measure stock returns is no difference. This means that the APT does not affect stock returns padaindustri banks that went public on the stock exchanges of Indonesia.

An Empirical Assessment of CAPM, Market Model and APT: Evidence from the Greek Stock Market

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-118
Author(s):  
Petros Messis ◽  
George Emmanuel Iatridis ◽  
George Blanas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Athens Stock Exchange ◽  
Better Than

This paper uses three models to estimate the financial performance of 33 securities traded on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). To estimate the expected returns, this study uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Market Model, and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). There is significant evidence that the APT performs better than the CAPM and the Market Model, while the differences between the CAPM and the Market Model appear not to be significant. The three models are tested for a five-year period from 2000 to 2005. Total risk is significantly negatively related to returns during down markets, while this relationship is positive but not significant in up markets. There is evidence that, apart from the market risk, other risk factors that influence the stock returns are the inflation rate and the exchange rate.

An extensile method on the arbitrage pricing theory based on downside risk (D-APT)

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdadabad ◽  
Paskalis Glabadanidis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Expected Stock Returns ◽  
Pricing Theory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a new and improved version of arbitrage pricing theory (APT), namely, downside APT (D-APT) using the concepts of factors’ downside beta and semi-variance. Design/methodology/approach – This study includes 163 stocks traded on the Malaysian stock market and uses eight macroeconomic variables as the dependent and independent variables to investigate the relationship between the adjusted returns and the downside factors’ betas over the whole period 1990-2010, and sub-periods 1990-1998 and 1999-2010. It proposes a new version of the APT, namely, the D-APT to replace two deficient measures of factor's beta and variance with more efficient measures of factors’ downside betas and semi-variance to improve and dispel the APT deficiency. Findings – The paper finds that the pricing restrictions of the D-APT, in the context of an unrestricted linear factor model, cannot be rejected over the sample period. This means that all of the identified factors are able to price stock returns in the D-APT model. The robustness control model supports the results reported for the D-APT as well. In addition, all of the empirical tests provide support the D-APT as a new asset pricing model, especially during a crisis. Research limitations/implications – It may be worthwhile explaining the autocorrelation limitation between variables when applying the D-APT. Practical implications – The framework can be useful to investors, portfolio managers, and economists in predicting expected stock returns driven by macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the results are important to corporate managers who undertake the cost of capital computations, fund managers who make investment decisions and, investors who assess the performance of managed funds. Originality/value – This paper is the first study to apply the concepts of semi-variance and downside beta in the conventional APT model to propose a new model, namely, the D-APT.

Penggunaan Arbitrage Pricing Theory Untuk Menganalisis Return Saham Syariah

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
Gusni Gusni ◽  
Suskim Riantani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Factor Loading ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Pricing Theory

Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is one of model that can be used to quantify the risk for investors in order to produce capital gain.There are two empirical models are used in implement the APT: the factor loading model (FLM) and the macro variable model (MVM). Model used in this research was MVM as used by Chen, Roll dan Ross (1986), and Chen, Hsieh dan Jordan (1997). The purpose of this study is to capture the application of APT in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) using macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate) as the determinants of Syariah stock return and found macro economics variables having powerful effect to the Syariah stock return. To achieve the objectives of this study, a total of 11 listed syariah firms of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in Indonesia Stock Exchange were selected by using purposive sampling method from the period of 2009 to 2014. Multiple linear regression has been conducted to capture the application of APT in analized determinants of Syariah stock return. The result shows that only interest rate has effect to the syariah (JII) stock return. Meanwhile inflation and exchange rate have no effect to the syariah stock return. Emperical results clearly indicate that application of APT in justifying returns on Syariah stocks is still weak. Keywords: Arbitrage Pricing Theory, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Interest Rate, Stock Return

scholarly journals Autoregression Vector Prediction on Banking Stock Return using CAPM Model Approach and Multi-Factor APT (IJCIET)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andysah Putera Utama Siahaan ◽  
Rusiadi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Model Method ◽  
Pricing Theory

This study aims to predict banking stock returns in Indonesia. The problem under study is the difficulty of determining banking stock returns. This study uses the VAR approach by comparing CAPM and APT. The results show the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method through RF (Return Risk-Free Assets) is more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. In the medium term, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method through RF (Return Risk-Free Assets) is more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. In the long run, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) method is also more accurate in predicting stock returns than the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) method. Model specifications formed using the Roots of Characteristic Polynomial and Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial obtained stable results; it can be shown that all roots units are in the Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial circle.

scholarly journals A Robust Application of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence from Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Oyetayo Oluwatosin J. ◽  
Adeyeye Patrick Olufemi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Relationship Of

Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a testable theory based on the idea that in competitive financial markets arbitrage will ensure that riskless assets provide the same expected return. We sought to confirm the relevance of the arbitrage pricing theory in Nigeria. Guided by a good understanding of macroeconomic variables and stock price movements as found in the extant literature on arbitrage pricing theory (APT), we specified our APT equation for estimation. Having satisfied the integration and co-integration issues, we employ the error-correction (ECM) and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods for the short-run and long-run regressions. Our short-run results seem to agree with existing theories on APT thus confirming that APT is relevant in Nigeria. However, the long-run relationship of stock returns and RGDP was found to be contentious. Even though our result runs contrary to predictions on the relationship between the two, we found peculiar events and circumstances within the Nigerian macroeconomic context that provides logical reasons for the deviation.

scholarly journals Empirical testing of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using data from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Page
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The United States ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Security Returns ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Risk Free Rate

In 1976 Stephen A. Ross developed a new theory of securities pricing called the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). According to the APT the return an investor can expect from a share is related to the risk-free rate and numerous other factors rather than just the return on the market as predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Although a considerable amount of empirical research has been carried out into the APT in the United States of America, little appears to have been done in South Africa In this article empirical research is carried out into the APT using data from the JSE. The research involves both attempting to establish the number of 'priced' factors influencing risky security returns on the JSE and comparing the explanatory ability of the APT and CAPM. Factor analysis is used to establish the number of 'priced' APT factors and regression analysis is used to assess the explanatory ability of the models. The findings suggest that at least two factors determine security returns, rather than just the return on the market as predicted by the CAPM, and that a two-factor APT model has significantly better explanatory powers than the CAPM in an ex-post sense. Finally, it is apparent that considerably more empirical research needs to be done if the factors are to be conclusively identified and checked for stability through time.

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