scholarly journals Trend differences in lower stratospheric water vapour between Boulder and the zonal mean and their role in understanding fundamental observational discrepancies

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 8331-8351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Dale F. Hurst ◽  
Karen H. Rosenlof ◽  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  

Abstract. Trend estimates with different signs are reported in the literature for lower stratospheric water vapour considering the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) frost point hygrometer (FPH) observations at Boulder (Colorado, 40.0° N, 105.2° W) indicate positive trends (about 0.1 to 0.45 ppmv decade−1). On the contrary, negative trends (approximately −0.2 to −0.1 ppmv decade−1) are derived from a merged zonal mean satellite data set for a latitude band around the Boulder latitude. Overall, the trend differences between the two data sets range from about 0.3 to 0.5 ppmv decade−1, depending on altitude. It has been proposed that a possible explanation for these discrepancies is a different temporal behaviour at Boulder and the zonal mean. In this work we investigate trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean using primarily simulations from ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model), CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) and CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere). On shorter timescales we address this aspect also based on satellite observations from UARS/HALOE (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Halogen Occultation Experiment), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and Aura/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder). Overall, both the simulations and observations exhibit trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean. The differences are dependent on altitude and the time period considered. The model simulations indicate only small trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. These are clearly not sufficient to explain the discrepancies between the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations and the merged zonal mean satellite data set. Unless the simulations underrepresent variability or the trend differences originate from smaller spatial and temporal scales than resolved by the model simulations, trends at Boulder for this time period should also be quite representative for the zonal mean and even other latitude bands. Trend differences for a decade of data are larger and need to be kept in mind when comparing results for Boulder and the zonal mean on this timescale. Beyond that, we find that the trend estimates for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010 also significantly differ among the simulations. They are larger than those derived from the merged satellite data set and smaller than the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Dale F. Hurst ◽  
Karen H. Rosenlof ◽  
Gabriele P. Stiller ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  

Abstract. Trend estimates with different signs are reported in the literature for lower stratospheric water vapour considering the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) frost point hygrometer (FPH) observations at Boulder (Colorado, 40.0° N, 105.2° W) indicate positive trends (about 0.12 ppmv decade−1–0.45 ppmv decade−1). Contrary, negative trends (approximately −0.15 ppmv decade−1–−0.05  ppmv decade−1) are derived from a merged zonal mean satellite data set for a latitude band around the Boulder latitude. Overall, the trend differences between the two data sets range from about 0.25 ppmv decade−1 to 0.45 ppmv decade−1, depending on altitude. A possible explanation for these discrepancies is a different temporal behaviour at Boulder and the zonal mean, which simply indicates a sampling bias. In this work we investigate trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean using primarily simulations from ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model), CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) and CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere). On shorter time scales we address this aspect also based on satellite observations from UARS/HALOE (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Halogen Occultation Experiment), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and Aura/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder). Overall, both the simulations and observations exhibit trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean. The differences are dependent on altitude and the time period considered. The model simulations indicate only small trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. These are clearly not sufficient to explain the discrepancies between the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations and the merged zonal mean satellite data set. Unless the simulations underrepresent variability or the trend differences originate from smaller spatial and temporal scales than resolved by the model simulations, trends at Boulder for this time period should be quite representative also for the zonal mean and even other latitude bands. Trend differences for a decade of data are larger and need to be kept in mind when comparing results for Boulder and the zonal mean on this time scale. Beyond that, we find that the trend estimates for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010 also significantly differ among the simulations. They are larger than those derived from the merged satellite data set and smaller than the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liubov Poshyvailo-Strube ◽  
Rolf Müller ◽  
Stephan Fueglistaler ◽  
Michaela I. Hegglin ◽  
Johannes C. Laube ◽  
...  

Abstract. The stratospheric meridional overturning circulation, also referred to as the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), controls the composition of the stratosphere, which, in turn, affects radiation and climate. As the BDC cannot be directly measured, one has to infer its strength and trends indirectly. For instance, trace gas measurements allow the calculation of average transit times. Satellite measurements provide information on the distributions of trace gases for the entire stratosphere, with measurements of particularly long and dense coverage available for stratospheric water vapour (H2O). Although chemical processes and boundary conditions confound interpretation, the influence of CH4 oxidation on H2O is relatively straightforward, and thus H2O is an appealing tracer for transport analysis despite these caveats. In this work, we explore how mean age of air trends can be estimated from the combination of stratospheric H2O and CH4 data. We carry out different sensitivity studies with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) and focus on the analysis of the periods of 1990–2006 and 1990–2017. In particular, we assess the methodological uncertainties related to the two commonly-used approximations of (i) instantaneous stratospheric entry mixing ratio propagation, and (ii) constant correlation between mean age and the fractional release factor of methane. Our results show that the estimated mean age of air trends from the combination of observed stratospheric H2O and CH4 changes may be significantly affected by the assumed approximations. Depending on the investigated stratospheric region and the considered period, the error in estimated mean age of air decadal trends can be large – the discrepancies are up to 10 % per decade or even more at the lower stratosphere. For particular periods, the errors from the two approximations can lead to opposite effects, which may even cancel out. Finally, we propose an improvement to the approximation method by using an idealised age spectrum to propagate stratospheric entry mixing ratios. The findings of this work can be used for improving and assessing the uncertainties in stratospheric BDC trend estimation from global satellite measurements.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 4355-4373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swagata Payra ◽  
Philippe Ricaud ◽  
Rachid Abida ◽  
Laaziz El Amraoui ◽  
Jean-Luc Attié ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present analysis deals with one of the most debated aspects of the studies on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), namely the budget of water vapour (H2O) at the tropical tropopause. Within the French project “Multiscale water budget in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the TROpics” (TRO-pico), a global-scale analysis has been set up based on space-borne observations, models and assimilation techniques. The MOCAGE-VALENTINA assimilation tool has been used to assimilate the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) version 3.3 H2O measurements within the 316–5 hPa range from August 2011 to March 2013 with an assimilation window of 1 h. Diagnostics based on observations minus analysis and forecast are developed to assess the quality of the assimilated H2O fields. Comparison with an independent source of H2O measurements in the UTLS based on the space-borne Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) observations and with meteorological ARPEGE analyses is also shown. Sensitivity studies of the analysed fields have been performed by (1) considering periods when no MLS measurements are available and (2) using H2O data from another MLS version (4.2). The studies have been performed within three different spaces in time and space coincidences with MLS (hereafter referred to as MLS space) and MIPAS (MIPAS space) observations and with the model (model space) outputs and at three different levels: 121 hPa (upper troposphere), 100 hPa (tropopause) and 68 hPa (lower stratosphere) in January and February 2012. In the MLS space, the analyses behave consistently with the MLS observations from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. In the model space, the analyses are wetter than the reference atmosphere as represented by ARPEGE and MLS in the upper troposphere (121 hPa) and around the tropopause (100 hPa), but are consistent with MLS and MIPAS in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa). In the MIPAS space, the sensitivity and the vertical resolution of the MIPAS data set at 121 and 100 hPa prevent assessment of the behaviour of the analyses at 121 and 100 hPa, particularly over intense convective areas as the South American, the African and the Maritime continents but, in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa), the analyses are very consistent with MIPAS. Sensitivity studies show the improvement on the H2O analyses in the tropical UTLS when assimilating space-borne measurements of better quality, particularly over the convective areas.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1391-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Scherer ◽  
H. Vömel ◽  
S. Fueglistaler ◽  
S. J. Oltmans ◽  
J. Staehelin

Abstract. This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE). Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km), the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 7909-7927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kanaya ◽  
H. Irie ◽  
H. Takashima ◽  
H. Iwabuchi ◽  
H. Akimoto ◽  
...  

Abstract. We conducted long-term network observations using standardized Multi-Axis Differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments in Russia and ASia (MADRAS) from 2007 onwards and made the first synthetic data analysis. At seven locations (Cape Hedo, Fukue and Yokosuka in Japan, Hefei in China, Gwangju in Korea, and Tomsk and Zvenigorod in Russia) with different levels of pollution, we obtained 80 927 retrievals of tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (TropoNO2VCD) and aerosol optical depth (AOD). In the technique, the optimal estimation of the TropoNO2VCD and its profile was performed using aerosol information derived from O4 absorbances simultaneously observed at 460–490 nm. This large data set was used to analyze NO2 climatology systematically, including temporal variations from the seasonal to the diurnal scale. The results were compared with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations and global model simulations. Two NO2 retrievals of OMI satellite data (NASA ver. 2.1 and Dutch OMI NO2 (DOMINO) ver. 2.0) generally showed close correlations with those derived from MAX-DOAS observations, but had low biases of up to ~50%. The bias was distinct when NO2 was abundantly present near the surface and when the AOD was high, suggesting a possibility of incomplete accounting of NO2 near the surface under relatively high aerosol conditions for the satellite observations. Except for constant biases, the satellite observations showed nearly perfect seasonal agreement with MAX-DOAS observations, suggesting that the analysis of seasonal features of the satellite data were robust. Weekend reduction in the TropoNO2VCD found at Yokosuka and Gwangju was absent at Hefei, implying that the major sources had different weekly variation patterns. While the TropoNO2VCD generally decreased during the midday hours, it increased exceptionally at urban/suburban locations (Yokosuka, Gwangju, and Hefei) during winter. A global chemical transport model, MIROC-ESM-CHEM (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate–Earth System Model–Chemistry), was validated for the first time with respect to background NO2 column densities during summer at Cape Hedo and Fukue in the clean marine atmosphere.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotta Högberg ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Ralf Bauer ◽  
Kaley A. Walker ◽  
Patrick Eriksson ◽  
...  

Abstract. Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), we have evaluated five data sets of δD(H2O) obtained from observations of Odin/SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and SCISAT/ACE-FTS (Science Satellite/Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer) using profile-to-profile and climatological comparisons. Our focus is on stratospheric altitudes, but results from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere are provided. There are clear quantitative differences in the measurements of the isotopic ratio, which primarily concerns the comparisons to the SMR data set. In the lower stratosphere, this data set shows a higher depletion than the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets. The differences maximise close to 50 hPa and exceed 200 per mille. With increasing altitude, the biases typically decrease. Above 4 hPa, the SMR data set shows a lower depletion than the MIPAS data sets, on occasion exceeding 100 per mille. Overall, the δD biases of the SMR data set are driven by HDO biases in the lower stratosphere and by H2O biases in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. In between, in the middle stratosphere, the biases in δD are a combination of deviations in both HDO and H2O. These biases are attributed to issues with the calibration, in particular in terms of the sideband filtering for H2O, and uncertainties in spectroscopic parameters. The MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets agree rather well between about 100 hPa and 10 hPa. The MIPAS data sets show less depletion below about 15 hPa (up to about 30 per mille), due to differences in both HDO and H2O. Higher up the picture is reversed, and towards the upper stratosphere the biases typically increase. This is driven by increasing biases in H2O and on occasion the differences in δD exceed 80 per mille. Below 100 hPa, the differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets are even larger. In the climatological comparisons, the MIPAS data sets continue to show less depletion than the ACE-FTS data sets below 15 hPa during all seasons, with some variations in magnitude. The differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data come from different aspects, such as differences in the temporal and spatial sampling (except for the profile-to-profile comparisons), cloud influence, vertical resolution, and the microwindows and spectroscopic database chosen. Differences between data sets from the same instrument are typically small in the stratosphere.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 995-1016 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Thornton ◽  
D. R. Jackson ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
N. Bormann ◽  
Q. Errera ◽  
...  

Abstract. This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.


2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1977-2020
Author(s):  
F. Khosrawi ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
M. H. Proffitt ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner ◽  
...  

Abstract. 1-year data sets of monthly averaged nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) derived from satellite measurements were used as a tool for the evaluation of atmospheric photochemical models. Two 1-year data sets, one derived from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer (ILAS and ILAS-II) and one from the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (Odin/SMR) were employed. Here, these data sets are used for the evaluation of two Chemical Transport Models (CTMs), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) as well as for one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 (E5M1) in the lower stratosphere with focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Since the Odin/SMR measurements cover the entire hemisphere, the evaluation is performed for the entire hemisphere as well as for the low latitudes, midlatitudes and high latitudes using the Odin/SMR 1-year data set as reference. To assess the impact of using different data sets for such an evaluation study we repeat the evaluation for the polar lower stratosphere using the ILAS/ILAS-II data set. Only small differences were found using ILAS/ILAS-II instead of Odin/SMR as a reference, thus, showing that the results are not influenced by the particular satellite data set used for the evaluation. The evaluation of CLaMS, KASIMA and E5M1 shows that all models are in good agreement with Odin/SMR and ILAS/ILAS-II. Differences are generally in the range of ±20%. Larger differences (up to −40%) are found in all models at 500±25 K for N2O mixing ratios greater than 200 ppb. Generally, the largest differences were found for the tropics and the lowest for the polar regions. However, an underestimation of polar winter ozone loss was found both in KASIMA and E5M1 both in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 11179-11221
Author(s):  
D. Pendlebury ◽  
D. Plummer ◽  
J. Scinocca ◽  
P. Sheese ◽  
K. Strong ◽  
...  

Abstract. CMAM30 is a 30 year data set extending from 1979 to 2010 that is generated using a version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) in which the winds and temperatures are relaxed to the Interim Reanalysis product from the European Centre Medium-Range for Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim). The data set has dynamical fields that are very close to the reanalysis below 1 hPa and chemical tracers that are self-consistent with respect to the model winds and temperature. The chemical tracers are expected to be close to actual observations. The data set is here compared to two satellite records – the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectometer and the Odin Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System – for the purpose of validating the temperature, ozone, water vapour and methane fields. Data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder is also used for validation of the chemical processing in the polar vortex. It is found that the CMAM30 temperature is warm by up to 5 K in the stratosphere, with a low bias in the mesosphere of ~ 5–15 K. Ozone is reasonable (± 15%) except near the tropopause globally, and in the Southern Hemisphere winter polar vortex. Water vapour is consistently low by 10–20%, with corresponding high methane of 10–20%, except in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. Discrepancies in this region are shown to stem from the treatment of polar stratospheric cloud formation in the model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2497-2526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotta Högberg ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Farahnaz Khosrawi ◽  
Ralf Bauer ◽  
Kaley A. Walker ◽  
...  

Abstract. Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), we evaluated five data sets of δD(H2O) obtained from observations by Odin/SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding), and SCISAT/ACE-FTS (Science Satellite/Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer) using profile-to-profile and climatological comparisons. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of typical uncertainties in the observational database that could be considered in the future in observational and modelling studies. Our primary focus is on stratospheric altitudes, but results for the upper troposphere and lower mesosphere are also shown. There are clear quantitative differences in the measurements of the isotopic ratio, mainly with regard to comparisons between the SMR data set and both the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the SMR data set shows a higher depletion in δD than the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets. The differences maximise close to 50 hPa and exceed 200 ‰. With increasing altitude, the biases decrease. Above 4 hPa, the SMR data set shows a lower δD depletion than the MIPAS data sets, occasionally exceeding 100 ‰. Overall, the δD biases of the SMR data set are driven by HDO biases in the lower stratosphere and by H2O biases in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. In between, in the middle stratosphere, the biases in δD are the result of deviations in both HDO and H2O. These biases are attributed to issues with the calibration, in particular in terms of the sideband filtering, and uncertainties in spectroscopic parameters. The MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets agree rather well between about 100 and 10 hPa. The MIPAS data sets show less depletion below approximately 15 hPa (up to about 30 ‰), due to differences in both HDO and H2O. Higher up this behaviour is reversed, and towards the upper stratosphere the biases increase. This is driven by increasing biases in H2O, and on occasion the differences in δD exceed 80 ‰. Below 100 hPa, the differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets are even larger. In the climatological comparisons, the MIPAS data sets continue to show less depletion in δD than the ACE-FTS data sets below 15 hPa during all seasons, with some variations in magnitude. The differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data have multiple causes, such as differences in the temporal and spatial sampling (except for the profile-to-profile comparisons), cloud influence, vertical resolution, and the microwindows and spectroscopic database chosen. Differences between data sets from the same instrument are typically small in the stratosphere. Overall, if the data sets are considered together, the differences in δD among them in key areas of scientific interest (e.g. tropical and polar lower stratosphere, lower mesosphere, and upper troposphere) are too large to draw robust conclusions on atmospheric processes affecting the water vapour budget and distribution, e.g. the relative importance of different mechanisms transporting water vapour into the stratosphere.


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