Vulnerable, but still poorly known, marine ecosystems: how to make distribution models more relevant and impactful for conservation and management of VMEs?

Human activity puts our oceans under multiple stresses, whose impacts are already significantly affecting biodiversity and physicochemical properties. Consequently, there is an increased international focus on the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, including the protection of fragile benthic biodiversity hotspots in the deep sea, identified as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). International VME risk assessment and conservation efforts are hampered because we largely do not know where VMEs are located. VME distribution modelling has increasingly been recommended to extend our knowledge beyond sparse observations. Nevertheless, the adoption of VME distribution models in spatial management planning and conservation remains limited. This work critically reviews VME distribution modelling studies, and recommends promising avenues to make VME models more relevant and impactful for policy and management decision making. First, there is an important interplay between the type of VME data used to build models and how the generated maps can be used in making management decisions, which is often ignored by model-builders. We encourage scientists towards founding their models on: (i) specific and quantitative definitions of what constitute a VME, (ii) site conservation value assessment in relation to VME multi-taxon spatial predictions, and (iii) explicitly mapping vulnerability. Along with the recent increase in both deep-sea biological and environmental data quality and quantity, these modelling recommendations can lead towards more cohesive summaries of VME’s spatial distributions and their relative vulnerability, which should facilitate a more effective protection of these ecosystems, as has been mandated by numerous international agreements.

Review of Suspended Sediment Transport Mathematical Modelling Studies

This paper reviews existing studies relating to the assessment of sediment concentration profiles within various flow conditions due to their importance in representing pollutant propagation. The effects of sediment particle size, flow depth, and velocity were considered, as well as the eddy viscosity and Rouse number influence on the drag of the particle. It is also widely considered that there is a minimum threshold velocity required to increase sediment concentration within a flow above the washload. The bursting effect has also been investigated within this review, in which it presents the mechanism for sediment to be entrained within the flow at low average velocities. A review of the existing state-of-the-art literature has shown there are many variables to consider, i.e., particle density, flow velocity, and turbulence, when assessing the suspended sediment characteristics within flow; this outcome further evidences the complexity of suspended sediment transport modelling.

Tracking Hunter-Gatherer Impact on Vegetation in Last Interglacial and Holocene Europe: Proxies and Challenges

We review palaeoenvironmental proxies and combinations of these relevant for understanding hunter-gatherer niche construction activities in pre-agricultural Europe. Our approach consists of two steps: (1) identify the possible range of hunter-gatherer impacts on landscapes based on ethnographic studies; (2) evaluate proxies possibly reflecting these impacts for both the Eemian (Last Interglacial, Middle Palaeolithic) and the Early–Middle Holocene (Mesolithic). We found these paleoenvironmental proxies were not able to unequivocally establish clear-cut differences between specific anthropogenic, climatic and megafaunal impacts for either time period in this area. We discuss case studies for both periods and show that published evidence for Mesolithic manipulation of landscapes is based on the interpretation of comparable data as available for the Last Interglacial. If one applies the ‘Mesolithic’ interpretation schemes to the Neanderthal record, three common niche construction activities can be hypothesised: vegetation burning, plant manipulation and impact on animal species presence and abundance. Our review suggests that as strong a case can be made for a Neanderthal impact on landscapes as for anthropogenic landscape changes during the Mesolithic, even though the Neanderthal evidence comes from only one high-resolution site complex. Further research should include attempts (e.g. by means of modelling studies) to establish whether hunter-gatherer impact on landscapes played out at a local level only versus at a larger scale during both time periods, while we also need to obtain comparative data on the population sizes of Last Interglacial and Holocene hunter-gatherers, as these are usually inferred to have differed significantly.

Reviewing the elements of marine ice cliff instability

Antarctica’s ice sheets are the largest potential sea-level rise contributors, but projections of future sea-level rise yield wide ranges of estimates under different emission scenarios. An important factor in the variability of estimates is marine ice cliff instability (MICI). Inclusion of MICI yields the highest potential sea-level rise cases but also the largest uncertainty due to poor understanding of the factors that control it and the mechanisms of how it happens. Although evidence for MICI has been implied by paleo-ice sheet studies and observations of keel plough mark on sea-floor, recent statistical and modelling studies have suggested a lower magnitude of MICI effect on sea-level rise due to thinning of ice sheets and buttressing forces exerted on potentially failing cliffs. This paper reviews the factors that control MICI with the goal of identifying priorities for modern ice sheet studies to better bound the estimates.

Understanding biosphere-precipitation relationships: Theory, model simulations and logical inferences

The four major biophysical controls of vegetation which govern land-atmosphere interaction emanate from the ability or vegetation to. (a) evapotranspire (b) trap solar radiation within leaf organizations. (c) regulate evapotranspiration by stomatal control and (d) modify (generally increase) the surface roughness on the scale of turbulent eddies, Simulation studies with General Circulation Models together with a few observational analyses have provided a rational understanding of vegetation-precipitation interaction. In studies with artificially enhanced vegetation-related processes a strong dependence of rainfall on vegetation has been inferred. For Sahelian and other tropical desert-border regions, where evapotranspiration is small, increasing the surface-albedo (desertification) decreases rainfall. When evaportranspiration and or land-surface roughness are increased in some selected regions - a potential effect of vegetation an increase in local rainfall is produced. The above effects both individually and jointly have simulated increased monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Modelling studies directed at understanding the relationship between tropical forests and rainfall with realistic models of the biosphere have simulated a warmer and drier climate in response to Amazonian deforestation. Since forests absorb more solar energy and produce much larger evaportranspiration, as well as moisture convergence through the surface-roughness effect, positive feedback effect of forests on precipitation can be expected naturally. Our new simulation experiments not only reaffirmed the above results but also suggested potential global consequences due to the ongoing deforestation. From a synthesis of modeling results of the last decade, it if further inferred that variations in the biosphere-atmospheric interactions play an important role in redistributing continental precipitation to fulfill the survival and growth requirements of different biomes: forests, pasture, agricultural lands, and deserts.

Past monsoons : A review of proxy data and modelling

Recent modelling studies have given insight into the role of internal feedback processes among components of the climate system on the evolution of monsoon strength since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago). Here we present an overview of these modelling studies related to the summer monsoon over India and northern Africa. These studies indicate that the seasonal insolation changes alone do not explain the observed extent of hydrological changes during the early and middle Holocene over northern Africa. To simulate the extent of observed changes during this period incorporation of vegetation as an active component in climate models appears to be necessary. Over the Indian region, model results show that precipitation-soil moisture feedbacks play an important role in determining the response of the monsoon to changes in insolation and glacial-age surface boundary conditions. Indian monsoon strength from proxy records during the early and middle. Holocene have also been used in conjunction with coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model experiments to refute the suggestion that semi-permanent warm surface conditions prevailed over equatorial Pacific ocean from 11 to 5ka.

Peering into the internal structure of cold pools and their interactions with a dense observational network

<p>Melting and evaporation of hydrometeors in and below convective clouds generates cold, dense air that falls through the atmospheric column and spreads at the surface like a density current, the cold pool. In modelling studies, the importance of cold pools in controlling the lifecycle of convection has often been emphasized, being through their organization of the cloud field or through their sheer deepening of the convection. Larger, longer-lived cold pools benefit convection, but little is actually known on the size and internal structure of cold pools from observations as the majority of cold pools are too small to be captured by the operational surface network.  One aim of the field campaign FESSTVaL was to peer into the internal structure of cold pools and their interactions with the underlying land surface by deploying a dense network of surface observations. This network consisted of 80 self-designed cold pool loggers, 19 weather stations and 83 soil sensors deployed in an area of 15 km around Lindenberg. FESSTVaL took place from 17 May to 27 August 2021.</p> <p>In principle, cold pool characteristics are affected both by the atmospheric state, which fuels cold pools through melting and evaporation of hydrometeors, and the land surface, which acts to destroy cold pools through friction and warming by surface fluxes. In this talk, the measurements collected during FESSTVaL will be used to shed light on these interactions.  We are particularly interested to assess how homogeneous the internal structure of cold pools is and whether heterogeneities of the land surface imprint themselves on this internal structure. The results will be compared to available model simulations.</p>