scholarly journals A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niamh Cahill ◽  
Andrew C. Kemp ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
Andrew C. Parnell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Tidal Elevation ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera) and geochemical (δ13C) sea-level indicators preserved in dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised of three modules: (1) a new Bayesian transfer (B-TF) function for the calibration of biological indicators into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate additional proxies; (2) an existing chronology developed using the Bchron age–depth model, and (3) an existing Errors-In-Variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model for estimating rates of sea-level change. Our approach is illustrated using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey, USA We develop a new B-TF using foraminifera, with and without the additional (δ13C) proxy and compare our results to those from a widely used weighted-averaging transfer function (WA-TF). The formal incorporation of a second proxy into the B-TF model results in smaller vertical uncertainties and improved accuracy for reconstructed RSL. The vertical uncertainty from the multi-proxy B-TF is  ∼  28 % smaller on average compared to the WA-TF. When evaluated against historic tide-gauge measurements, the multi-proxy B-TF most accurately reconstructs the RSL changes observed in the instrumental record (mean square error  =  0.003 m2). The Bayesian hierarchical model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analyzing sea-level change through time. This approach is suitable for reconstructing other paleoenvironmental variables (e.g., temperature) using biological proxies.

scholarly journals A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: from raw data to rates of change

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4851-4893 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Cahill ◽  
A. C. Kemp ◽  
B. P. Horton ◽  
A. C. Parnell
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Function ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Weighted Averaging ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Holistic Model ◽  
Tidal Elevation ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

Abstract. We present a holistic Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with fully quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera) and geochemical (δ13C) sea-level indicators preserved in dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised of three modules: (1) A Bayesian transfer function for the calibration of foraminifera into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate additional proxies (in this case bulk-sediment δ13C values), (2) A chronology developed from an existing Bchron age-depth model, and (3) An existing errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model for estimating rates of sea-level change. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey. USA We develop a new Bayesian transfer function (B-TF), with and without the δ13C proxy and compare our results to those from a widely-used weighted-averaging transfer function (WA-TF). The formal incorporation of a second proxy into the B-TF model results in smaller vertical uncertainties and improved accuracy for reconstructed RSL. The vertical uncertainty from the multi-proxy B-TF is ∼ 28 % smaller on average compared to the WA-TF. When evaluated against historic tide-gauge measurements, the multi-proxy B-TF most accurately reconstructs the RSL changes observed in the instrumental record (MSE = 0.003 m2). The holistic model provides a single, unifying framework for reconstructing and analysing sea level through time. This approach is suitable for reconstructing other paleoenvironmental variables using biological proxies.

Developing constraints on the relative sea-level curve for the northeast of Ireland from the mid-Holocene to the present day

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1841) ◽  
pp. 857-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian D Orford ◽  
Joanne Murdy ◽  
Robert Freel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The North

Tide-gauge records from the north of Ireland have been digitized to generate annual estimates of both mean-sea-level (MSL) position from Malin Head (1958–1998), and mean tidal level (MTL) from Belfast Harbour (1918–2002). Both sites exhibit substantial annual variation, but show overall long-term shallow rates of falling relative sea-level change (RSLC) that are very similar at −0.2 mm a −1 (±0.37 mm a −1 ) for Belfast and −0.16 mm a −1 (±0.17 mm a −1 ) for Malin. Using these rates as constraints, plus other constraints of inferred RSLC rates from the mid-Holocene, an approximation of the likely profile of RSLC rates for the northeast of Ireland since 6 ka ago is presented.

scholarly journals RELATIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGE ALONG THE BLACK SEA COAST FROM TIDE-GAUGE OBSERVATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W8 ◽  
pp. 43-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. B. Avsar ◽  
S. H. Kutoglu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Black Sea Coast ◽  
Gauge Station

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Potential sea level rise poses a significant threat to low-lying areas. Considering present and future of coastal areas, scientific study of sea level rise is an essential for adapting to sea level extremes. In this study, the relative sea level change in the Black Sea were investigated using data of 12 tide-gauge and 6 GNSS stations. Results generally indicated sea level rise along the Black Sea coast. Only at Bourgas tide-gauge station, a sea level fall was detected. A significant sea level change were not determined at Sinop tide-gauge station. On the other hand, at some stations such as Poti and Sile, ground subsidence contribution to relative sea level changes were observed.</p>

scholarly journals Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinping Wang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Xianyao Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Regional Sea Level Change

AbstractThe ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions.

scholarly journals Corrigendum: Late Devensian and Holocene relative sea-level change in North Wales, UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 768-768
Author(s):  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
J. D. Scourse ◽  
J. D. Bennell ◽  
D. G. Huws ◽  
C. F. Jago ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
North Wales
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