scholarly journals A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
Louise C. Sime ◽  
Marie Sicard ◽  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

A multi-model CMIP6 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Sime ◽  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
Marie Sicard ◽  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<p>The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59% (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78<sup>o</sup>N, in the Atlantic and Nordic seas, the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78<sup>o</sup>N there are some discrepancies between sea ice reconstructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations, and simulations with moderate CO2 increase (during the transition to high CO2 levels), may yield insight into likely 21C Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.</p>

scholarly journals The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alek A. Petty ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve ◽  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Linette N. Boisvert ◽  
Angela C. Bliss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.

scholarly journals A multi-model CMIP6 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
Louise C. Sime ◽  
Marie Sicard ◽  
Maria-Vittoria Guarino ◽  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Nordic Seas ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Mod-elling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78° N in the Atlantic and Nordic seas the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78° N there are some discrepancies between sea-ice re-constructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations, and simulations with moderate CO2 increase (during the transition to high CO2 levels), may yield insight into likely 21C Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

scholarly journals The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: A year of record low highs and higher than expected lows

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alek A. Petty ◽  
Julienne C. Stroeve ◽  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Linette N. Boisvert ◽  
Angela C. Bliss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. 2016 was an interesting year in the Arctic, with record low sea ice at the start of the year, but a summer (September) Arctic sea ice extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area to analyse the relative 'compactness' of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher than expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low concentration/compactness ice cover, but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt out and a new record low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record late 2016 freeze up in the Central Arctic, North Atlantic. and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, 'New Arctic', sea ice regime.

scholarly journals Impact of Variable Atmospheric and Oceanic Form Drag on Simulations of Arctic Sea Ice*

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 1329-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Tsamados ◽  
Daniel L. Feltham ◽  
David Schroeder ◽  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
Sinead L. Farrell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Form Drag ◽  
Drag Coefficients ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Range Of Values

Abstract Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe and melt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

scholarly journals Arctic Research on Thin Ice: Consequences of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Eos ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mats Granskog ◽  
Philipp Assmy ◽  
Sebastian Gerland ◽  
Gunnar Spreen ◽  
Harald Steen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Scientists embarked on a 6-month expedition in the Arctic Ocean to study the thinning sea ice cover, improve our understanding of sea ice loss effects, and help predict future changes.

scholarly journals Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Lindsay ◽  
J. Zhang ◽  
A. Schweiger ◽  
M. Steele ◽  
H. Stern
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Pacific Side ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.

scholarly journals Intensification of the Atlantic Water Supply to the Arctic Ocean Through Fram Strait Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Xuezhu Wang ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Sea Ice Decline ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

scholarly journals Natural variability of the Arctic Ocean sea ice during the present interglacial

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (42) ◽  
pp. 26069-26075
Author(s):  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
Claude Hillaire-Marcel ◽  
Cynthia Le Duc ◽  
Philippe Roberge ◽  
Camille Brice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lomonosov Ridge ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Open Question ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the ongoing anthropogenic warming on the Arctic Ocean sea ice is ascertained and closely monitored. However, its long-term fate remains an open question as its natural variability on centennial to millennial timescales is not well documented. Here, we use marine sedimentary records to reconstruct Arctic sea-ice fluctuations. Cores collected along the Lomonosov Ridge that extends across the Arctic Ocean from northern Greenland to the Laptev Sea were radiocarbon dated and analyzed for their micropaleontological and palynological contents, both bearing information on the past sea-ice cover. Results demonstrate that multiyear pack ice remained a robust feature of the western and central Lomonosov Ridge and that perennial sea ice remained present throughout the present interglacial, even during the climate optimum of the middle Holocene that globally peaked ∼6,500 y ago. In contradistinction, the southeastern Lomonosov Ridge area experienced seasonally sea-ice-free conditions, at least, sporadically, until about 4,000 y ago. They were marked by relatively high phytoplanktonic productivity and organic carbon fluxes at the seafloor resulting in low biogenic carbonate preservation. These results point to contrasted west–east surface ocean conditions in the Arctic Ocean, not unlike those of the Arctic dipole linked to the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Hence, our data suggest that seasonally ice-free conditions in the southeastern Arctic Ocean with a dominant Arctic dipolar pattern, may be a recurrent feature under “warm world” climate.

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