Export of ice sheet meltwater from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland

Meltwater from Greenland is an important freshwater source for the North Atlantic Ocean, released into the ocean at the head of fjords in the form of runoff, submarine melt and icebergs. The meltwater release gives rise to complex in-fjord transformations that result in its dilution through mixing with other water masses. The transformed waters, which contain the meltwater, are exported from the fjords as a new water mass “Glacially Modified Water” (GMW). Here we use summer hydrographic data collected from 2013 to 2019 in Upernavik, a major glacial fjord in northwest Greenland, to describe the water masses that flow into the fjord from the shelf and the exported GMWs. Using an Optimum Multi-Parameter technique across multiple years we then show that GMW is composed of 57.8 ±8.1% Atlantic Water, 41.0 ±8.3% Polar Water, 1.0 ±0.1% subglacial discharge and 0.2 ±0.2% submarine meltwater. We show that the GMW fractional composition cannot be described by buoyant plume theory alone since it includes lateral mixing within the upper layers of the fjord not accounted for by buoyant plume dynamics. Consistent with its composition, we find that changes in GMW properties reflect changes in the AW and PW source waters. Using the obtained dilution ratios, this study suggests that the exchange across the fjord mouth during summer is on the order of 50 mSv (compared to a freshwater input of 0.5 mSv). This study provides a first order parameterization for the exchange at the mouth of glacial fjords for large-scale ocean models.

Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway

We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas in the period 1970-2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward, i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic, and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at lead time 1-2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatio-temporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents; the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatio-temporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions, could be through improved initialization, and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved.

Spatial Distribution of Different Age Groups of Herring in Norwegian Sea, May 1996–2020

The commercially important Norwegian spring spawning herring is characterized by its extensive annual migrations and, on a decadal timescale, large shifts in migration patterns. These changes are not well understood, but have previously been linked to temperature, food availability, and size and age composition of the stock. Acoustic and trawl data from the International Ecosystem Surveys in the Nordic Seas, carried out annually in May since 1996, were used to analyze the spatial distribution of herring in the period 1996–2020. The dataset was disaggregated into age classes, and information about where the different age classes feed in May was derived. The analysis of herring feeding patterns in May confirms that the youngest age classes are generally found close to the Norwegian shelf, whereas the older age classes display larger variations in where they are distributed. During the period 1996–1998, the oldest age classes were found in the central and western Norwegian Sea. During the period 1999–2004, the whole stock migrated north after spawning, leaving the regions in the southern Norwegian Sea void of herring. Since 2005 the oldest herring has again congregated in the south-western Norwegian Sea, in the frontal zone between the cooler East Icelandic water and the warmer Atlantic water. There was a significant positive relationship both between stock size and distribution area and between stock size and density. Moreover, it is likely that the strong year classes 1991/1992 and 1998/1999, which were relatively old when the respective changes in migration patterns occurred, were important contributors to the changes observed in 1999 and 2005, respectively.

PC-2 Winter Process Cruise (WPC)

The Winter Process Cruise (WPC) aboard RV Kronprins Haakon (KH2021702) conducted observations on processes that control the position and variability of the polar front in the Northern Barents Sea and the distribution of Arctic and Atlantic water masses. Moreover, the WPC serviced 2 gateway moorings sites (M1 and M4) and collected complementary hydrographic, microstructure and current profiles to detect the winter circulation pattern and the layering structures between the two competing water masses. Meteorological measurements were also made.

Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties

The rate of ocean-driven retreat of Greenland’s tidewater glaciers remains highly uncertain in predictions of future sea level rise, in part due to poorly constrained glacier-adjacent water properties. Icebergs and their meltwater contributions are likely important modifiers of fjord water properties, yet their effect is poorly understood. Here, we use a 3-D ocean circulation model, coupled to a submarine iceberg melt module, to investigate the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties in a range of idealised settings. Submarine iceberg melting can modify glacier-adjacent water properties in three principle ways: (1) substantial cooling and modest freshening in the upper ~50 m of the water column; (2) warming of Polar Water at intermediate depths due to iceberg melt-induced upwelling of warm Atlantic Water, and; (3) warming of the deeper Atlantic Water layer when vertical temperature gradients through this layer are steep (due to vertical mixing of warm water at depth), but cooling of the Atlantic Water layer when vertical temperature gradients are shallow. The overall effect of iceberg melt is to make glacier-adjacent water properties more uniform with depth. When icebergs extend to, or below, the depth of a sill at the fjord mouth, they can cause cooling throughout the entire water column. All of these effects are more pronounced in fjords with higher iceberg concentrations and deeper iceberg keel depths. These iceberg melt-induced changes to glacier-adjacent water properties will reduce rates of glacier submarine melting near the surface, but increase them in the Polar Water layer, and cause typically modest impacts in the Atlantic Water layer. These results characterise the important role of submarine iceberg melting in modifying ice sheet-ocean interaction, and highlight the need to improve representations of fjord processes in ice sheet-scale models.

Could Norwegian fjords serve as an analogue for the future of the Svalbard fjords? State and fate of high latitude fjords in the face of progressive “atlantification”

Benthic foraminifera are one of the most widely and abundantly distributed organisms in the fjords of Svalbard and Norway. Due to their short life span and quick reactivity to environmental changes they can be used as indicators of the “atlantification” process. Here, we compare the benthic foraminifera assemblages along the latitudinal gradient, from the fjords of northern Svalbard to southern Norway to assess whether the “atlantification” process may homogenise the foraminiferal assemblages in terms of their abundance and species composition. Furthermore, the previously published data on benthic foraminiferal faunas was updated to identify changes in distribution that have occurred over the last few decades. For this purpose, fjord mouths in western and northern Svalbard (Isfjorden, Wijdefjorden and Rijpfjorden) and northern and southern Norway (Balsfjorden, Raunefjorden and Hjeltefjorden) were resampled. The analysis revealed similarities between the Svalbard and Norwegian foraminiferal assemblages of up to 30%; however, there were essential differences in terms of abundance and biodiversity. These results suggest that Svalbard fjords will remain distinct in the future, even under conditions of further warming or “atlantification”. Svalbard fjords may be dominated by Atlantic Water- preferring species, whereas, in Norwegian fjords, pressure from human activity will probably be the main driver of environmental changes, leading to changes in the foraminiferal assemblages with the increasing dominance of opportunistic, hypoxia-tolerant species.