Assessing the quality of climate information for adaptation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Seamus Bradley ◽  
David A Stainforth
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Data Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Standard Quality ◽  
Assess Quality ◽  
The Relationship

<p>There are now a plethora of data, models and approaches available to produce climate information intended to inform adaptation to a changing climate. There is, however, no analytical framework to assess the epistemic issues concerning the quality of these data, models and approaches. An evaluation of the quality of climate information is a fundamental requirement for its appropriate application in societal decision-making. By integrating insights from the philosophy of science, environmental social science and physical climate science, we construct an analytical framework for “science-based statements about future climate” that allows for an assessment of their quality for adaptation planning. We target statements about local and regional climate with a lead time of one to one hundred years. Our framework clarifies how standard quality descriptors in the literature, such as “robustness”, “adequacy”, “completeness” and “transparency”, rely on both the type of evidence and the relationship between the evidence and the statement. This clarification not only provides a more precise framework for quality, but also allows us to show how certain evidential standards may change as a function of the purpose of a statement. We argue that the most essential metrics to assess quality are: Robustness, Theory, Completeness, Adequacy for purpose, Transparency. Our framework goes further by providing guidelines on when quantitative statements about future climate are warranted and potentially decision-relevant, when these statements would be more valuable taking other forms (e.g. qualitative statements), and when statements about future climate are not warranted at all.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the quality of regional climate information

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-38
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Seamus Bradley ◽  
David A. Stainforth
Keyword(s):  
Information Needs ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Information

CapsuleA framework for the assessment of quality in regional climate information needs to include dimensions such as: Diversity, Completeness, Theory, Adequacy for purpose, and Transparency.

scholarly journals Advancing Our Understanding of Narrative Comments Generated by Direct Observation Tools: Lessons From the Psychopharmacotherapy-Structured Clinical Observation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 570-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Q. Young ◽  
Rebekah Sugarman ◽  
Eric Holmboe ◽  
Patricia S. O'Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Direct Observation ◽  
Clinical Observation ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Written Comments ◽  
Checklist Score ◽  
Observation Tools ◽  
Assess Quality ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Narrative Comments

ABSTRACT Background While prior research has focused on the validity of quantitative ratings generated by direct observation tools, much less is known about the written comments. Objective This study examines the quality of written comments and their relationship with checklist scores generated by a direct observation tool, the Psychopharmacotherapy-Structured Clinical Observation (P-SCO). Methods From 2008 to 2012, faculty in a postgraduate year 3 psychiatry outpatient clinic completed 601 P-SCOs. Twenty-five percent were randomly selected from each year; the sample included 8 faculty and 57 residents. To assess quality, comments were coded for valence (reinforcing or corrective), behavioral specificity, and content. To assess the relationship between comments and scores, the authors calculated the correlation between comment and checklist score valence and examined the degree to which comments and checklist scores addressed the same content. Results Ninety-one percent of the comments were behaviorally specific. Sixty percent were reinforcing, and 40% were corrective. Eight themes were identified, including 2 constructs not adequately represented by the checklist. Comment and checklist score valence was moderately correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.57, P < .001). Sixty-seven percent of high and low checklist scores were associated with a comment of the same valence and content. Only 50% of overall comments were associated with a checklist score of the same valence and content. Conclusions A direct observation tool such as the P-SCO can generate high-quality written comments. Narrative comments both explain checklist scores and convey unique content. Thematic coding of comments can improve the content validity of a checklist.

scholarly journals The Gnat and the Bull: Do Climate Outlook Forums Make a Difference?

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (6) ◽  
pp. E771-E784
Author(s):  
Andrea K. Gerlak ◽  
Simon J. Mason ◽  
Meaghan Daly ◽  
Diana Liverman ◽  
Zack Guido ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
User Engagement ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Perceived Usability

Abstract Little has been documented about the benefits and impacts of the recent growth in climate services, despite a growing call to justify their value and stimulate investment. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), an integral part of the public and private enterprise of climate services, have been implemented over the last 20 years with the objectives of producing and disseminating seasonal climate forecasts to inform improved climate risk management and adaptation. In proposing guidance on how to measure the success of RCOFs, we offer three broad evaluative categories that are based on the primary stated goals of the RCOFs: 1) quality of the climate information used and developed at RCOFs; 2) legitimacy of RCOF processes focused on consensus forecasts, broad user engagement, and capacity building; and 3) usability of the climate information produced at RCOFs. Evaluating the quality of information relies largely on quantitative measures and statistical techniques that are standardized and transferrable, but assessing the RCOF processes and perceived usability of RCOF products will necessitate a combination of quantitative and qualitative social science methods that are sensitive to highly variable regional contexts. As RCOFs have taken up different formats and procedures to adapt to diverse institutional and political settings and varied technical and scientific capacities, objective evaluation methods adopted should align with the goals and intent of the evaluation and be performed in a participatory, coproduction manner where producers and users of climate services together design the evaluation metrics and processes. To fully capture the potential benefits of the RCOFs, it may be necessary to adjust or recalibrate the goals of these forums to better fit the evolving landscape of climate services development, needs, and provision.

scholarly journals Microbiological and physicochemical quality of honey in Bosnia and Herzegovina

2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Landeka ◽  
Željka Cvrtila ◽  
Lidija Kozačinski ◽  
Maja Drmać ◽  
Ana Sesar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Microbiological Quality ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Quality Parameters ◽  
Physico Chemical ◽  
Microbiological Parameters ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Assess Quality ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of the study was to investigate the microbiological and physico-chemical quality of honey samples, sampled for the event “Honey Days in FB&H 2020”, which tested a total of 33 samples of different honey types from different geographical areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between physico-chemical properties and microbiological properties of the tested honey to assess quality. The submitted samples originated from both administrative units of B&H, namely from the continental, sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean part, covering more than 60% of the country’s territory. Of the total number of analysed samples (n=33), nine samples (29.7%) did not meet the requirements of physico-chemical and microbiological parameters of the test. The requirements of one or more quality parameters according to the national Ordinance on methods for the control of honey and other bee products in B&H (Anonymous, 2009) were not met by five samples (16.5%). Four samples (13.2%) did not meet the microbiological quality, as they exceeded the permitted number of yeasts and moulds. In five samples (16.5%), the presence of microorganisms was recorded within the tolerance limits, while Enterobacteriaceae and sulphite-reducing clostridia were not isolated and were below the detection limit in all samples. Honey samples in which the results were found to be unsatisfactory for physico-chemical parameters and microbiological parameters cannot be correlated.

scholarly journals Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
David A. Stainforth ◽  
Seamus Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Independence Number ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Adaptation Decision ◽  
The Uk

AbstractIn this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.

Breastfeeding and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Wisnieski ◽  
Jean Kerver ◽  
Claudia Holzman ◽  
David Todem ◽  
Claire Margerison-Zilko
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
High Quality Research ◽  
The Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Clear Dose Response ◽  
Assess Quality ◽  
Duration Of Breastfeeding ◽  
The Relationship

Background: The beneficial effect of breastfeeding on individual components of the metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents has been reported, but it is unknown if there is an association between being breastfed and metabolic syndrome as a whole. Research aim: This systematic review was performed to assess quality and strength of evidence for the association between being breastfed and the development of metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents. Methods: Articles were obtained from searches using PubMed and Embase databases, as well as from secondary searches through reference lists. Study quality was assessed using a three-level quality rating system. Results: Of 11 studies reviewed, 7 found a protective association between breastfeeding and metabolic syndrome and 4 found no association. There was no clear dose–response relationship between duration of breastfeeding and metabolic syndrome risk and insufficient evidence to demonstrate an added effect of being exclusively breastfed. The overall quality of the articles was moderate. In general, lower quality articles found no significant association, whereas higher quality articles found a significant association. Conclusion: Our review demonstrated a limited amount of high-quality research on the relationship between being breastfed and development of metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents. The evidence presented in this review suggests that being breastfed may be protective against metabolic syndrome, but further research with improvements in study design, such as improved measurement of breastfeeding and the use of prospectively collected data, will improve our understanding of this relationship.

Evaluating the quality of model-based regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Seamus Bradley ◽  
David A. Stainforth
Keyword(s):  
Quality Assessment ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Probabilistic Uncertainty ◽  
The Uk

<p>The kind of long-term regional climate information that is increasingly important for making adaptation decisions varies in temporal and spatial resolution, and this information is usually derived from Global Climate models (GCMs). However, information about future changes in regional climate also comes with high degrees of uncertainty–an important element of the information given the high decision stakes of climate change adaptation.</p><p> </p><p>Given these considerations, Baldissera Pacchetti et al. (in press) have proposed a quality assessment framework for evaluating the quality of regional climate information that intends to inform decision making. Evaluating the quality of this information is particularly important for information that is passed on to decision makers in the form of climate services. The framework has five dimensions along which quality can be assessed: diversity, completeness, theory, adequacy for purpose and transparency.  </p><p> </p><p>Here, we critically evaluate this framework by applying it to one example of climate information for adaptation: the UK Climate Projections of 2018 (UKCP18). There are two main motivations for the choice of UKCP18. First, this product embodies some of the main modeling strategies that drive the field of climate science today. For example, the land projections produced by UKCP18 provide probabilistic uncertainty assessments using multi-model and perturbed physics ensembles (MME and PPE), use locally developed GCMs and the models from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), perform dynamical downscaling for producing information at the regional scale and further fine grain information with convection permitting models. Second, the earlier version of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) has received criticism from philosophers of science. The quality assessment framework proposed by Baldissera Pacchetti et al. partly aims to reveal whether the pitfalls identified by philosophers in UKCP09 persist in UKCP18.</p><p> </p><p>We apply the quality assessment framework to four strands of the UKCP18 land projections and illustrate whether and to what extent each of these strands satisfies the quality dimensions of the framework. When appropriate, we show whether quality varies depending on the variable of interest within a particular strand or across strands. For example, the theory quality dimension highlights that epistemic quality along this dimension is better satisfied for estimates about variables that depend on thermodynamic principles (e.g. global average temperature) than fluid dynamical theory (e.g. precipitation) (see, e.g., Risbey and O’Kane 2011) independently of the strand under assessment. We conclude that for those dimensions that can be evaluated, UKCP18 is not sufficiently epistemically reliable to provide information of high quality for all of the products provided.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
David Stainforth ◽  
Seamus Bradley
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Adaptation Decision ◽  
The Uk ◽  
User Perspectives ◽  
Probabilistic Projections

<p>We assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) as an example of such information. The probabilistic, global and regional land projections of UKCP18 exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of providing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate derived from these projections along five quality dimensions: transparency, theory, diversity, completeness and adequacy for purpose. The assessment produced two major insights. First, the main issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency. The lack of transparency is particularly problematic if the information is directed towards non-expert users, who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections. This assessment is a consequence of both lack of transparency in the probabilistic projections, and the way the method is used and justified to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. We suggest how higher quality could be achieved. This can be achieved by improving transparency of evidence and methodology and by better satisfying other dimensions through changes in elements of evidence and methodology. We conclude by recommending further avenues for testing the effectiveness of the framework and highlighting the need for further research in user perspectives on quality.</p>

scholarly journals FRI0619-HPR INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BIOPSYCHOSOCIAL STATUS AND QUALITY OF LIFE, EMOTION - STATUS AND FUNCTIONALITY IN INDIVIDUALS WITH PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS.

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 914.1-915
Author(s):  
S. Bulut ◽  
E. Ünal ◽  
A. Özçadirci ◽  
U. Kalyoncu
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Psoriatic Arthritis ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Health Assessment ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Status Assessment ◽  
Assess Quality ◽  
The Relationship

Background:Due to the chronic processes of rheumatological diseases, patients’ biopsychosocial effects are revealed.Objectives:The aim of this study is to evaluate the biopsychosocial status of individuals diagnosed with psoriatic arthritis; to examine the relationship between quality of life, emotion - status and functionality.Methods:105 individuals were included in the study. To evaluate the biopsychosocial situation, BETY-BQ (Bilişsel Egzersiz Terapi Yaklaşimi – Biopsychosocial Questionnaire)(1); Psoriatic Arthritis Quality of Life (PsAQoL) Scale to assess quality of life; For the emotion-status assessment; Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-A, HADS-D); Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) was used for functionality. Pearson Correlation Analysis was used in statistical analysis.Results:Descriptive data of the individuals participating in the study were recorded (Table 1).While BETY-BQ was highly correlated with PSAQoL Scale(r = 0.826, p <0.001), moderate correlations were found with HADS-A and HADS-D (HADS-A (r = 0.618, p <0.001), HADS-D (r = 0.507, p <0.001)). Low correlation was found between BETY-BQ and HAQ (r = 286, p = 0.003) (Table 2).Table 1.Descriptive StatisticsMinimumMaximumMeanStandart DeviationAge (years)206044.9811.04Height (cm)145.00190.00165.618.88Weight (kg)4413875.5417.36VKI(kg/m2)17.8549.0027.546.02Table 2.PsAQoLHADS-AHADS-DHAQBETY-BQr 0.826**p<0.001r=0.618**p<0.001r=0.507**p<0.001r=286**p=0.003** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)Conclusion:In this study, it was found that BETY-BQ is a scale that can be used in total to evaluate the quality of life, emotion-status level and functionality of individuals diagnosed with PsA. It was thought that BETY-BQ could be considered and preferred by clinicians when individuals with PsA should be evaluated from a biopsychosocial point of view.References:[1] Unal E, Arin G, Karaca Nb, Kiraz S, Akdogan A, Kalyoncu U, et al. Development of a quality of life measurement for rheumatic patients: item pool construction Journal of Exercise Therapy and Rehabilitation. 2017; 4 (2): 67-75.Disclosure of Interests:Senem Bulut: None declared, Edibe Ünal: None declared, Aykut Özçadirci: None declared, Umut Kalyoncu Consultant of: Abbvie, Amgen, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, UCB

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