The Gnat and the Bull: Do Climate Outlook Forums Make a Difference?

Abstract Little has been documented about the benefits and impacts of the recent growth in climate services, despite a growing call to justify their value and stimulate investment. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), an integral part of the public and private enterprise of climate services, have been implemented over the last 20 years with the objectives of producing and disseminating seasonal climate forecasts to inform improved climate risk management and adaptation. In proposing guidance on how to measure the success of RCOFs, we offer three broad evaluative categories that are based on the primary stated goals of the RCOFs: 1) quality of the climate information used and developed at RCOFs; 2) legitimacy of RCOF processes focused on consensus forecasts, broad user engagement, and capacity building; and 3) usability of the climate information produced at RCOFs. Evaluating the quality of information relies largely on quantitative measures and statistical techniques that are standardized and transferrable, but assessing the RCOF processes and perceived usability of RCOF products will necessitate a combination of quantitative and qualitative social science methods that are sensitive to highly variable regional contexts. As RCOFs have taken up different formats and procedures to adapt to diverse institutional and political settings and varied technical and scientific capacities, objective evaluation methods adopted should align with the goals and intent of the evaluation and be performed in a participatory, coproduction manner where producers and users of climate services together design the evaluation metrics and processes. To fully capture the potential benefits of the RCOFs, it may be necessary to adjust or recalibrate the goals of these forums to better fit the evolving landscape of climate services development, needs, and provision.

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Evaluating the quality of model-based regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16352 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽

Suraje Dessai ◽

Seamus Bradley ◽

David A. Stainforth

Keyword(s):

Quality Assessment ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Assessment Framework ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Probabilistic Uncertainty ◽

The Uk

The kind of long-term regional climate information that is increasingly important for making adaptation decisions varies in temporal and spatial resolution, and this information is usually derived from Global Climate models (GCMs). However, information about future changes in regional climate also comes with high degrees of uncertainty&#8211;an important element of the information given the high decision stakes of climate change adaptation.&#160;Given these considerations, Baldissera Pacchetti et al. (in press) have proposed a quality assessment framework for evaluating the quality of regional climate information that intends to inform decision making. Evaluating the quality of this information is particularly important for information that is passed on to decision makers in the form of climate services. The framework has five dimensions along which quality can be assessed: diversity, completeness, theory, adequacy for purpose and transparency. &#160;&#160;Here, we critically evaluate this framework by applying it to one example of climate information for adaptation: the UK Climate Projections of 2018 (UKCP18). There are two main motivations for the choice of UKCP18. First, this product embodies some of the main modeling strategies that drive the field of climate science today. For example, the land projections produced by UKCP18 provide probabilistic uncertainty assessments using multi-model and perturbed physics ensembles (MME and PPE), use locally developed GCMs and the models from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), perform dynamical downscaling for producing information at the regional scale and further fine grain information with convection permitting models. Second, the earlier version of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) has received criticism from philosophers of science. The quality assessment framework proposed by Baldissera Pacchetti et al. partly aims to reveal whether the pitfalls identified by philosophers in UKCP09 persist in UKCP18.&#160;We apply the quality assessment framework to four strands of the UKCP18 land projections and illustrate whether and to what extent each of these strands satisfies the quality dimensions of the framework. When appropriate, we show whether quality varies depending on the variable of interest within a particular strand or across strands. For example, the theory quality dimension highlights that epistemic quality along this dimension is better satisfied for estimates about variables that depend on thermodynamic principles (e.g. global average temperature) than fluid dynamical theory (e.g. precipitation) (see, e.g., Risbey and O&#8217;Kane 2011) independently of the strand under assessment. We conclude that for those dimensions that can be evaluated, UKCP18 is not sufficiently epistemically reliable to provide information of high quality for all of the products provided.

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Examining the Goals of the Regional Climate Outlook Forums: What Role for User Engagement?

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-18-0015.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 693-708 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Meaghan Daly ◽

Suraje Dessai

Keyword(s):

Participant Observation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

User Engagement ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Services Delivery ◽

Scientific Experts ◽

Information Products

Abstract Over the last 20 years, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) have brought together scientific experts and stakeholders to produce regional-scale climate information products for society. This article examines the goals and practices of RCOFs, with a focus on user engagement, in order to draw out practical lessons for future implementation of RCOFs. Analysis of literature and documents (n = 72), interviews with key informants (n = 25), and participant observation were used in this research. Results show that approaches to user engagement in the RCOFs vary significantly from region to region and have been shaped by differences in the priority placed on user engagement relative to the other goals of the RCOFs, the role of RCOFs in the broader climate services delivery chain, the landscapes of potential users and institutions, and views about what the role of users can and should be. Findings indicate that approaches to user engagement necessarily reflect the regional context. This research suggests that more reflexivity about the current framing of RCOF goals is needed, including how users can and should be involved within RCOFs and how the benefits and value of RCOFs are conceptualized, assessed, and communicated in the future.

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Assessing the quality of regional climate information

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-20-0008.1 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-38

Author(s):

Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽

Suraje Dessai ◽

Seamus Bradley ◽

David A. Stainforth

Keyword(s):

Information Needs ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Information

CapsuleA framework for the assessment of quality in regional climate information needs to include dimensions such as: Diversity, Completeness, Theory, Adequacy for purpose, and Transparency.

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Connecting Climate Information Producers and Users: Boundary Organization, Knowledge Networks, and Information Brokers at Caribbean Climate Outlook Forums

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-15-0076.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 285-298 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Zack Guido ◽

Valerie Rountree ◽

Christina Greene ◽

Andrea Gerlak ◽

Adrian Trotman

Keyword(s):

Information Exchange ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Knowledge Networks ◽

Scientific Language ◽

Climate Information ◽

Group Discussions ◽

Climate Services ◽

Boundary Organization ◽

Seasonal Climate ◽

Information Brokers

Abstract Boundary organizations, knowledge networks, and information brokers have been suggested as mechanisms that help integrate information into decision-making and enhance interactions between the producers and users of climate information. While these mechanisms have been discussed in many studies in disparate fields of research, there has been little empirical research describing how they relate and support each other within studies on climate services. In this paper, two Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forums (CariCOFs) convened in 2014 are studied. CariCOFs facilitate the production of regional seasonal climate information and the dissemination of it to a diverse climate and socioeconomic region. Network analysis, key informant interviews, and small group discussions were used to answer two questions: 1) what are the barriers to using seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) by CariCOF participants and 2) what are the iterative processes of information exchange that address these barriers? The barriers to using SCF include difficulty in demonstrating the value of the forecast to potential users, difficulty in interpreting and explaining the forecast to others, and challenges associated with the scientific language used in the information. To address these constraints, the convener of the CariCOF acts as a boundary organization by enabling interactions between participants representing diverse sectoral and geographic settings. This develops a network that helps build shared scientific understanding and knowledge about how different sectors experience climate risk. These interactions guide information brokering activities that help individuals communicate and translate climate information to facilitate understanding at local levels.

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Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-11-25-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 25-33 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. Obregón ◽

H. Nitsche ◽

M. Körber ◽

A. Kreis ◽

P. Bissolli ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Product Portfolio ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Services ◽

Climate Monitoring ◽

The World

Abstract. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

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Assessing the quality of climate information for adaptation.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20133 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽

Suraje Dessai ◽

Seamus Bradley ◽

David A Stainforth

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Science ◽

Analytical Framework ◽

Data Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Information ◽

Standard Quality ◽

Assess Quality ◽

The Relationship

There are now a plethora of data, models and approaches available to produce climate information intended to inform adaptation to a changing climate. There is, however, no analytical framework to assess the epistemic issues concerning the quality of these data, models and approaches. An evaluation of the quality of climate information is a fundamental requirement for its appropriate application in societal decision-making. By integrating insights from the philosophy of science, environmental social science and physical climate science, we construct an analytical framework for &#8220;science-based statements about future climate&#8221; that allows for an assessment of their quality for adaptation planning. We target statements about local and regional climate with a lead time of one to one hundred years. Our framework clarifies how standard quality descriptors in the literature, such as &#8220;robustness&#8221;, &#8220;adequacy&#8221;, &#8220;completeness&#8221; and &#8220;transparency&#8221;, rely on both the type of evidence and the relationship between the evidence and the statement. This clarification not only provides a more precise framework for quality, but also allows us to show how certain evidential standards may change as a function of the purpose of a statement.&#160;We argue that the most essential metrics to assess quality are: Robustness, Theory, Completeness, Adequacy for purpose, Transparency. Our framework goes further by providing guidelines on when quantitative statements about future climate are warranted and potentially decision-relevant, when these statements would be more valuable taking other forms (e.g. qualitative statements), and when statements about future climate are not warranted at all.

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Provision of Climate Services for Agriculture: Public and Private Pathways to Farm Decision-Making

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-17-0253.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 99 (9) ◽

pp. 1781-1790 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Tonya Haigh ◽

Vikram Koundinya ◽

Chad Hart ◽

Jenna Klink ◽

Maria Lemos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Information ◽

Sources Of Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Public And Private ◽

For Profit ◽

Key Stakeholders ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Private And Public ◽

Management Recommendations ◽

Information Providers

AbstractThe pathways between climate information producers and agricultural decision-makers are evolving and becoming more complex, with information increasingly flowing through both public and for-profit intermediaries and organizations. This study characterizes the various channels of climate information flow, as well as the needs and preferences of information intermediaries and end users. We use data from a 2016 survey of farmers and agricultural advisors in 12 U.S. Corn Belt states to evaluate perceptions of climate information and its usability. Our findings reinforce the view that much weather and climate information is not reaching farmers explicitly but also suggest that farmers may not be aware of the extent to which the information is packaged with seed, input, or management recommendations. For farmers who are using weather and climate information, private services such as subscription and free tools and applications (apps) are as influential as publicly provided services. On the other hand, we find that agricultural advisors are engaged users and transformers of both public and private sources of weather/climate information and that they choose sources of information based on qualities of salience and credibility. Our results suggest that climate information providers could improve the use of information in agriculture by engaging advisors and farmers as key stakeholders and by strategically employing multiple delivery pathways through the private and public sectors.

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Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 168 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Marina Baldissera Pacchetti ◽

Suraje Dessai ◽

David A. Stainforth ◽

Seamus Bradley

Keyword(s):

Climate Adaptation ◽

State Of The Art ◽

Independence Number ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Information ◽

Uncertainty Estimates ◽

Adaptation Decision ◽

The Uk

AbstractIn this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.

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Building a Framework for Process-Oriented Evaluation of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-17-0029.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 225-239 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Andrea K. Gerlak ◽

Zack Guido ◽

Catherine Vaughan ◽

Valerie Rountree ◽

Christina Greene ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Stakeholder Participation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Starting Point ◽

Process Oriented

Abstract In many regions around the world, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide seasonal climate information and forecasts to decision-makers at regional and national levels. Despite having two decades of experience, the forums have not been systematically monitored or evaluated. To address this gap, and to better inform nascent and widespread efforts in climate services, the authors propose a process-oriented evaluation framework derived from literature on decision support and climate communication around the production and use of scientific information. The authors apply this framework to a case study of the Caribbean RCOF (CariCOF), where they have been engaged in a collaborative effort to integrate climate information and decision processes to enhance regional climate resilience. The authors’ examination of the CariCOF shows an evolution toward the use of more advanced and more diverse climate products, as well as greater awareness of user feedback. It also reveals shortfalls of the CariCOF, including a lack of diverse stakeholder participation, a need for better understanding of best practices to tailor information, undeveloped market research of climate products, insufficient experimentation and vetting of communication mechanisms, and the absence of a way to steward a diverse network of regional actors. The authors’ analysis also provides insight that allowed for improvements in the climate services framework to include mechanisms to respond to changing needs and conditions. The authors’ process-oriented framework can serve as a starting point for evaluating RCOFs and other organizations charged with the provision of climate services.

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Lessons learned from the co-production of climate services in India, Tanzania and Peru: climate capacity building the EPICC way

10.5194/ems2021-481 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mechthild Becker ◽

Thomas Nocke

Keyword(s):

Capacity Building ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Human Migration ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Impact Research ◽

Climate Impact Research

EPICC (East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities) is a large interdisciplinary project on the co-production of user-oriented climate services in India, Peru and Tanzania, executed by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It focuses on regional climate and hydrological systems and their interactions with agricultural livelihoods, human migration and security. To bridge the gap between research and its application at various levels of political decision-making or in the private sector, climates services are identified and co-produced with local partners and stakeholders and tailored to their respective needs and priorities.Capacity building and knowledge transfer are fundamental components of EPICC, with the aim to strengthen resilience against climate impacts. Actions include workshops, seminars and trainings in the partner countries, guest stays at PIK and, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, more and more virtual events. The presentation builds on a rich portfolio of experiences and lessons learned throughout the first project phase (4 years), including an overview of how the team adapted to the new realities in international stakeholder exchange during the pandemic and the challenges that came along with this. The presentation also discusses cultural differences in communication and collaboration the project team has experienced.As a practical example, the visualization of climate information for Peru, Tanzania and India on the web portal ClimateImpactsOnline / KlimafolgenOnline is presented. Visualization is considered to be a key technology for analysing and communicating climate information in a user-friendly, interactive and accessible way. As a first step, the needs of different types of users of climate information had to be identified, leading to tailor-made visualization solutions for both historic and future climate and climate impacts as well as current year weather conditions compared to historic climatology. In test sessions, the applicability of the visualized information was tested with local experts and feedback was integrated into the visualization portal. The presenters will share the challenges they had to face during the process and how they envision a sustainable use of project results.The EPICC project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI: www.international-climate-initiative.com). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is leading the execution of the project together with its project partners, the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).

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