A Methodology for Optimizing Numerical Weather Prediction Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafaella - Eleni Sotiropoulou ◽  
Ioannis Stergiou ◽  
Efthimios Tagaris
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

<p>Optimizing the performance of numerical weather prediction models is a very complicated process due to the numerous parameterization choices provided to the user. In addition, improving the predictability of one model’s variable (e.g., temperature) does not necessarily imply the improvement of another (e.g., precipitation). In this work the Technique of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is suggested as a method to optimize the performance of a numerical weather prediction model. TOPSIS provides the ability of using multiple statistical measures as ranking criteria for multiple forecasting variables. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used here for application of TOPSIS in order to optimize the model’s performance by the combined assessment of temperature and precipitation over Europe. Six ensembles optimize model’s physics performance (i.e., microphysics, planetary boundary layer, cumulus scheme, Long–and Short– wave and Land Surface schemes). The best performing option for each ensemble is selected by using multiple statistical criteria as input for the TOPSIS method, based on the integration of entropy weights. The method adopted here illustrates the importance of an integrated evaluation of weather prediction models’ performance and suggests a pathway for its improvement.</p><p>Acknowledgments LIFE CLIMATREE project “A novel approach for accounting & monitoring carbon sequestration of tree crops and their potential as carbon sink areas” (LIFE14 CCM/GR/000635).</p>

A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Product for Land Surface and Numerical Weather Prediction Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 1772-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Case ◽  
Frank J. LaFontaine ◽  
Jordan R. Bell ◽  
Gary J. Jedlovec ◽  
Sujay V. Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

scholarly journals Evaluation of Monin–Obukhov and Bulk Richardson Parameterizations for Surface–Atmosphere Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1091-1107
Author(s):  
Temple R. Lee ◽  
Michael Buban
Keyword(s):  
Transfer Coefficient ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moisture Transfer ◽  
Similarity Theory ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Surface Atmosphere ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

AbstractThe Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) was a field campaign to investigate influences of different land surface types on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The primary goals of LAFE were to better understand ABL development and structure and to improve turbulence parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models. Three 10-m micrometeorological towers were installed over different land surface types (i.e., early growth soybean, native grassland, and mature soybean) along a 1.7-km southwest–northeast-oriented line. All towers measured standard meteorological variables in addition to heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes. In this study, we used these measurements to evaluate the validity of applying Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to represent surface–atmosphere exchange over different land surface types. We investigated relationships between stability length ζ and the dimensionless wind shear ϕm, temperature gradient ϕh, and moisture gradient ϕq as well as relationships between bulk Richardson number Rib, friction coefficient Cu, heat-transfer coefficient Ct, and moisture-transfer coefficient Cr. We evaluated the new similarity functions developed using independent datasets obtained during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment-Southeast (VORTEX-SE). We found that using the Rib functions rather than the more traditional ζ functions to compute wind, temperature, and moisture yielded better agreement with the VORTEX-SE observations. These findings underscore limitations in MOST and motivate the need to consider modifying the functional forms of the similarity equations that form the basis for surface-layer parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models.

scholarly journals Parametrizations of Liquid and Ice Clouds’ Optical Properties in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Harel. B. Muskatel ◽  
Ulrich Blahak ◽  
Pavel Khain ◽  
Yoav Levi ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Effective Size ◽  
Asymmetry Factor ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models ◽  
Spectral Averaging

Parametrization of radiation transfer through clouds is an important factor in the ability of Numerical Weather Prediction models to correctly describe the weather evolution. Here we present a practical parameterization of both liquid droplets and ice optical properties in the longwave and shortwave radiation. An advanced spectral averaging method is used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, forward scattered fraction and asymmetry factor (bext, v, f, g), taking into account the nonlinear effects of light attenuation in the spectral averaging. An ensemble of particle size distributions was used for the ice optical properties calculations, which enables the effective size range to be extended up to 570 μm and thus be applicable for larger hydrometeor categories such as snow, graupel, and rain. The new parameterization was applied both in the COSMO limited-area model and in ICON global model and was evaluated by using the COSMO model to simulate stratiform ice and water clouds. Numerical weather prediction models usually determine the asymmetry factor as a function of effective size. For the first time in an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the asymmetry factor is parametrized as a function of aspect ratio. The method is generalized and is available on-line to be readily applied to any optical properties dataset and spectral intervals of a wide range of radiation transfer models and applications.

Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (14-15) ◽  
pp. 1841-1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Roulston ◽  
Jerome Ellepola ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Development of a Fast Three-Dimensional Dynamic Radiative Transfer Solver for Numerical Weather Prediction Models


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Maier ◽  
Bernhard Mayer ◽  
Claudia Emde ◽  
Aiko Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

<div> <div> <div> <div> <p>The increasing resolution of numerical weather prediction models makes 3D radiative effects more and more important. These effects are usually neglected by the simple 1D independent column approximations used in most of the current models. On top of that, these 1D radiative transfer solvers are also called far less often than the model’s dynamical core.</p> <p>To address these issues, we present a new „dynamic“ approach of solving 3D radiative transfer. Building upon the existing TenStream solver (Jakub and Mayer, 2015), radiation in this 3D model is not solved completely in each radiation time step, but is rather only transported to adjacent grid boxes. For every grid box, outgoing fluxes are then calculated from the incoming fluxes from the neighboring grid cells of the previous time step. This allows to reduce the computational cost of 3D radiative transfer models to that of current 1D solvers.</p> <p>Here, we show first results obtained with this new solver with a special emphasis on heating rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate issues related to the dynamical treatment of radiation as well as possible solutions to these problems.</p> <p>In the future, the speed of this newly developed 3D dynamic TenStream solver will be further increased by reducing the number of spectral bands used in the radiative transfer calculations with the aim to get a 3D solver that can be called even more frequently than the 1D two-stream solvers used nowadays.</p> <p>Reference:<br><span>Jakub, F. and Mayer, B. (2015), A three-dimensional parallel radiative transfer model for atmospheric heating rates for use in cloud resolving models—The TenStream solver, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, Volume 163, 2015, Pages 63-71, ISSN 0022-4073, . </span></p> </div> </div> </div> </div>

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