Long-term intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) lifecycle based on observation and CMIP6

Author(s):  
Jina Park ◽  
Hyungjun Kim ◽  
Shih-Yu(Simon) Wang ◽  
Jee-Hoon Jung ◽  
Kyo-Sun Lim ◽  
...  

<p>In 2018, Japan experienced successive extremes, flood and following heat wave. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has lifecycle and depending on the cycle, the basic condition of rainfall and heat event is decided. Thus, to examine the variability to the basic condition which is capable to make extreme event favorable, the long-term change of the EASM lifecycle is analyzed based on observation datasets and historical simulations of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).</p><p> According to the observation, the active phase of EASM has intensified and the break phase becomes longer, resulting in a shorter but stronger rainy season followed by a longer dry spell. This intensification in the precipitation evolution is accompanied by increased lower tropospheric southwesterly wind and convergence of water vapor flux, suggesting a dynamical cause. The widely reported westward extension of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High associated with the warming climate is a likely driver. Some of the CMIP6 models were able to capture the climatology of the EASM lifecycle and its intensification similar to those observed, but the majority of models still did not properly simulate the EASM lifecycle.</p>

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 6975-6988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Eun Chu ◽  
Saji N. Hameed ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha

Abstract The hypothesis that regional characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) result from the presence of nonlinear coupled features that modulate the seasonal circulation and rainfall at the intraseasonal time scale is advanced in this study. To examine this hypothesis, the authors undertake the analysis of daily EASM variability using a nonlinear multivariate data classifying algorithm known as self-organizing mapping (SOM). On the basis of various SOM node analyses, four major intraseasonal phases of the EASM are identified. The first node describes a circulation state corresponding to weak tropical and subtropical pressure systems, strong upper-level jets, weakened monsoonal winds, and cyclonic upper-level vorticity. This mode, related to large rainfall anomalies in southeast China and southern Japan, is identified as the mei-yu–baiu phase. The second node represents a distinct circulation state corresponding to a strengthened subtropical high, monsoonal winds, and anticyclonic upper-level vorticity in southeast Korea, which is identified as the changma phase. The third node is related to copious rain over Korea following changma, which we name the postchangma phase. The fourth node is situated diagonally opposite the changma mode. Because Korea experiences a dry spell associated with this SOM node, it is referred to as the dry-spell phase. The authors also demonstrate that a strong modulation of the changma and dry-spell phases on interannual time scales occurs during El Niño and La Niña years. Results imply that the key to predictability of the EASM on interannual time scales may lie with analysis and exploitation of its nonlinear characteristics.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 19593-19630
Author(s):  
B. Z. Ge ◽  
Z. F. Wang ◽  
X. B. Xu ◽  
J. Tang ◽  
Y. J. He ◽  
...  

Abstract. The acidity of precipitation has been observed at stations of the Acid Rain Monitoring Network run by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-ARMN) since 1992. Previous studies have shown that different long-term trends exist in different regions but detailed analysis of the causes of these is lacking. In this paper, we analyze summertime precipitation acidity data from the CMA-ARMN during 1992–2006 using EOFs and show that the summertime pH in China had different trends before and after 2000. The most significant decrease of pH is found in Central China. To investigate the causes of this decrease of pH in summer, we explore the relationship between changes in the pH value, the East Asian summer monsoon index, rainfall data, and pollutants emissions. We find that the East Asian summer monsoon can significantly affect the acidity of summer precipitation in Central China. In strong monsoon years, the pH in Central China is about 0.33 lower than that in weak monsoon years. Chemical transport model simulations using fixed emissions indicate that about 65% of the pH value difference (i.e., 0.22) is related to the summer monsoon, and constitutes 18–36% of the observed pH change (0.6–1.2) in Central China during 1992–2006. Further studies reveal a teleconnection between the pH in Central China and the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), which can explain about 24% of the variance of pH in Central China. Simulations using an annually varying emission inventory show that at least 60% of the variation in precipitation acidity in Central China can be attributed to changes in pollutant emissions. Therefore, the increase in emissions of acidic species is the most important cause for the observed decrease of pH in Central China, and changes in meteorological factors, such as rainfall and other parameters related to the East Asian summer monsoon, play a less important but still significant role.


2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
June-Yi Lee ◽  
MinHo Kwon ◽  
Kyung-Sook Yun ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
In-Hong Park ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1671-1684 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Z. Ge ◽  
Z. F. Wang ◽  
X. B. Xu ◽  
J. Tang ◽  
Y. J. He ◽  
...  

Abstract. The acidity of precipitation has been observed at stations of the Acid Rain Monitoring Network run by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-ARMN) since 1992. Previous studies have shown that different long-term trends exist in different regions but detailed analysis of the causes of these is lacking. In this paper, we analyze summertime precipitation acidity data from the CMA-ARMN during 1992–2006 using EOFs and show that the summertime pH in China had different trends before and after 2000. The most significant decrease of pH is found in Central China. To investigate the causes of this decrease of pH in summer, we explore the relationship between changes in the pH value, the East Asian summer monsoon index, rainfall data, and pollutants emissions. We find that the East Asian summer monsoon can significantly affect the acidity of summer precipitation in Central China. In strong monsoon years, the pH in Central China is about 0.33 lower than that in weak monsoon years. Chemical transport model simulations using fixed emissions indicate that about 65% of the pH value difference (i.e., 0.22) is related to the summer monsoon, and constitutes 18–36% of the observed pH change (0.6∼1.2) in Central China during 1992–2006. Further studies reveal a relationship between the pH in Central China and the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), which can explain about 24% of the variance of pH in Central China. Simulations using an annually varying emission inventory show that at least 60% of the variation in precipitation acidity in Central China can be attributed to changes in pollutant emissions. Therefore, the increase in emissions of acidic species is the most important cause for the observed decrease of pH in Central China, and changes in meteorological factors, such as rainfall and other parameters related to the East Asian summer monsoon, play a less important but still significant role.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-54
Author(s):  
Guixing Chen ◽  
Yu Du ◽  
Zhiping Wen

AbstractThis study revisits the long-term variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1958-2017 through examining diurnal cycles. We group monsoon days into four dynamic quadrants, with emphasis on the strong daily southerlies coupled with a large (Q1) or small (Q4) diurnal amplitude over Southeast China. The occurrence day of Q1 increases in June-July with the seasonal progress of EASM. It is most pronounced in 1960s-1970s and declines to the lowest in 1980s-1990s, while the Q4 occurrence increases notably from 1970s to 1990s; both groups return to normal in recent years. The interdecadal decrease (increase) of Q1 (Q4) occurrence corresponds well to the known weakening of EASM in the 20th century, and it also coincides with the rainfall anomalies over China shifting from “North flooding and South drought” to “North drought and South flooding” modes. The rainfall under Q1 (Q4) can account for ∼60% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall in northern (southern) China. The contrasting effects of Q1 and Q4 on rainfall are due to their remarkably different regulation on water vapor transports and convergence. The interannual/interdecadal variations of Q1 (Q4) occurrence determine the anomalous water vapor transports to northern (southern) China, in association with the various expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high. In particular, Q1 condition can greatly intensify nighttime moisture convergence, which is responsible for the long-term variations of rainfall in northern China. The results highlight that the diurnal cycles in monsoon flow act as a key regional process working with large-scale circulations to regulate the spatial distributions and long-term variabilities of EASM rainfall.


2021 ◽  
Vol 414 ◽  
pp. 125477
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Lixin Zhu ◽  
Changjun Li ◽  
Zhangyu Song ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 558 ◽  
pp. 116758
Author(s):  
Yanjun Cai ◽  
Xing Cheng ◽  
Le Ma ◽  
Ruixue Mao ◽  
Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 5027-5040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Cao ◽  
Shu Gui ◽  
Qin Su ◽  
Yali Yang

Abstract The interannual zonal movement of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon (IIE), associated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) seesaw mode (SSTSM) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical central-western Pacific (TCWP), is studied for the period 1979–2008. The observational analysis is based on Twentieth Century Reanalysis data (version 2) of atmospheric circulations, Extended Reconstructed SST data (version 3), and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation. The results indicate that the IIE’s zonal movement is significantly and persistently correlated with the TIO–TCWP SSTSM, from spring to summer. The results of two case studies resemble those obtained by regression analysis. Experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM6) substantiate the key physical processes revealed in the observational analysis. When warmer (colder) SSTs appear in the TIO and colder (warmer) SSTs occur in the TCWP, the positive (negative) SSTSM forces anomalous easterly (westerly) winds over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP). The anomalous easterly (westerly) winds further result in a weakened (strengthened) southwest summer monsoon over the BOB and a strengthened (weakened) southeast summer monsoon over the SCS and WNP. This causes the IIE to shift farther eastward (westward) than normal.


2010 ◽  
Vol 136 (649) ◽  
pp. 829-841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuguang Sun ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Wonsun Park ◽  
Mojib Latif

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