Exploring the effects of adaptation policies on sea-level rise-induced migration at continental scale

Author(s):  
Lena Reimann ◽  
Bryan Jones ◽  
Claudia Wolff ◽  
Athanasios Vafeidis

<p>Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) in the course of the 21<sup>st</sup> century will lead to population displacement and migration, the intensity and patterns of which will largely depend on the type and efficiency of adaptation strategies pursued. Thus far, the potential feedbacks between adaptation and SLR-induced migration have not been considered in continental-scale assessments. This study explores the effect of three coastal adaptation policy scenarios – 1) ‘build with nature’, 2) ‘hold the line’, 3) ‘save yourself’ – on migration due to SLR, using a gravity-based population downscaling model calibrated to the Mediterranean region. The policy scenarios are consistent with the socioeconomic developments described under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Combining these with a range of SLR scenarios, we produce spatial population projections from 2020 to 2100 that allow for estimating SLR-induced migration with and without adaptation. Preliminary results show that, without adaptation, SLR may lead to migration of 10 million (SSP1-RCP2.6) to 16 million (SSP3-RCP4.5) people currently living in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean until 2100. With adaptation, the number of migrants until 2100 could be reduced by 2.1 million under the ‘build with nature’ scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by up to 6 million under the ‘hold the line’ scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). These results suggest that adaptation can be effective in reducing the number of migrants due to SLR, in particular when engineered solutions such as dikes are pursued. However, while the number of SLR-related migrants can be reduced by 50% under the ‘hold the line’ scenario, impacts would be high in case of protection failure during extreme sea level conditions. Allowing for exploring the effects of different adaptation policies on SLR-induced migration, we anticipate that our findings can provide a suitable basis for decision-making, for example in adaptation planning or regional development planning.</p>

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Georgina Hart

<p>The Earth's climate system is entering a period of dynamic change after millennia of relatively stable climate. Coastal communities will need to adapt to dynamically shifting coastal environments as the climate system changes and sea levels rise. This study adds to a growing literature that investigates coastal vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. It investigates regional scale social and institutional barriers to adaptation to sea level rise; examines the exposure, sensitivity and adaptation options at two coastal settlements in the Auckland region – Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay; and it analyses coastal adaptation response options from a resilience perspective. Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay, Auckland will experience increasing coastal hazard risk as the numbers of people and property potentially affected by storm events increases as sea level rises. Findings from the present study suggest that existing settlements in the Auckland region may already be 'locked in' to a coastal adaptation approach focused on maintaining the current coastline through coastal stabilisation, an approach that will decrease community resilience and increase vulnerability in the long term, even if this is found to be a successful response in the short term. Retreat offers an alternative approach that is strongly aligned with reducing community vulnerability and increasing resilience; however, strong opposition from communities to any retreat approach is expected. Developing trusted climate science information, education around coastal hazard risk, and participatory community led decision-making are identified as central enablers for a retreat approach to be included as a viable coastal adaptation option for communities in the Auckland region.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew E. Hauer ◽  
Jason M. Evans ◽  
Clark R. Alexander

2006 ◽  
Vol 177 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludovic Mocochain ◽  
Georges Clauzon ◽  
Jean-Yves Bigot

Abstract The Messinian salinity crisis is typically recorded by evaporites in the abyssal plains of the Mediterranean Sea and by canyons incised into the Mediterranean margins and their hinterlands. However, the impacts of crisis on geomorphology and surface dynamics lasted, until canyons were filled by sediments in the Pliocene (fig. 2). In the mid-Rhône valley, the Ardeche Cretaceous carbonate platform is incised over 600 m by the Rhône Messinian canyon. The canyon thalweg is located – 236 m bsl (below sea level) in the borehole of Pierrelatte [Demarcq, 1960; fig. 1]. During the Pliocene, this canyon was flooded as a ria and infilled by a Gilbert type fan delta [Clauzon and Rubino, 1992; Clauzon et al., 1995]. The whole Messinian-Pliocene third order cycle [Haq et al., 1987] generated four benchmark levels. The first two are [Clauzon, 1996]: (i) The pre-evaporitic abandonment surface which is mapped around the belvedere of Saint-Restitut (fig. 1). This surface is synchronous [Clauzon, 1996] of the crisis onset (5.95 Ma) [Gautier et al., 1994; Krigjsman et al., 1999] and, consequently, is an isochronous benchmark. (ii) The Messinian erosional surface is also an isochronous benchmark due to the fast flooding [Blanc, 2002] of the Rhône canyon, becoming a ria at 5.32 Ma [Hilgen and Langereis, 1988]. These surfaces are the result of endoreic Mediterranean sea level fall more than a thousand meters below the Atlantic Ocean. A huge accommodation space (up to more than 1000 m) was created as sea-level rose up to 80 m above its present-day level (asl) during the Pliocene highstand of cycle TB 3.4 (from 5.32 to 3.8 Ma). During the Lower Pliocene this accommodation space was filled by a Gilbert fan delta. This history yields two other benchmark levels: (i) the marine/non marine Pliocene transition which is an heterochronous surface produced by the Gilbert delta progradation. This surface recorded the Pliocene highstand sea level; (ii) the Pliocene abandonment surface at the top of the Gilbert delta continental wedge. Close to the Rhône-Ardeche confluence, the present day elevations of the four reference levels are (evolution of base-level synthesized in fig. 4): (1) 312 m asl, (2) 236 m bsl, (3) 130 m asl, (4) 190 m asl. The Ardèche carbonate platform underwent karstification both surficial and at depth. The endokarst is characterized by numerous cavities organised in networks. Saint-Marcel Cave is one of those networks providing the most complete record (fig. 5). It opens out on the northern side of the Ardeche canyon at an altitude of 100 m. It is made up by three superposed levels extending over 45 km in length. The lower level (1) is flooded and functionnal. It extends beneath the Ardeche thalweg down to the depth of 10 m bsl reached by divers. The observations collected in the galleries lead us to the conclusion that the karst originated in the vadose area [Brunet, 2000]. The coeval base-level was necessarily below those galleries. The two other levels (middle (2) and upper (3)) are today abandoned and perched. The middle level is about 115 m asl and the upper one is about 185 m asl. They are horizontal and have morphologies specific to the phreatic and temporary phreatic zone of the karst (fig. 6). In literature, the terracing of the Saint-Marcel Cave had been systematically interpreted as the result of the lowering by steps of the Ardeche base-level [Guérin, 1973; Blanc, 1995; Gombert, 1988; Debard, 1997]. In this interpretation, each deepening phase of the base level induces the genesis of the gravitary shaft and the abandonment of the previous horizontal level. The next stillstand of base level leads to the elaboration of a new horizontal level (fig. 7). This explanation is valid for most of Quaternary karsts, that are related to glacioeustatic falls of sea-level. However our study on the Saint-Marcel Cave contests this interpretation because all the shafts show an upward digging dynamism and no hint of vadose sections. The same “per ascensum” hydrodynamism was prevailing during the development of the whole network (figs. 8 and 9). We interpret the development of the Ardeche endokarst as related to the eustatic Messinian-Pliocene cycle TB 3.4/3.5 recorded by the Rhône river. The diving investigations in the flooded part of the Saint-Marcel Cave and also in the vauclusian springs of Bourg-Saint-Andeol reached - 154 m bsl. Those depths are compatible only with the incision of the Messinian Rhône canyon at the same altitude (−236 m bsl). The Saint-Marcel lower level would have develop at that time. The ascending shaping of levels 2 and 3 is thus likely to have formed during the ensuing sea-level rise and highstand during the Pliocene, in mainly two steps: (i) the ria stage controlled by the Mediterranean sea level rise and stillstand; (ii) the rhodanian Gilbert delta progradation, that controlled the genesis of the upper level (fig. 10).


PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e0152437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nava M. Tabak ◽  
Magdeline Laba ◽  
Sacha Spector

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanne Martyr-Koller ◽  
Tabea Lissner ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

&lt;p&gt;Climate impacts increase with higher warming and evidence is mounting that impacts increase strongly above 1.5&amp;#176;C. Therefore, adaptation needs also rise substantially at higher warming levels. Further&lt;strong&gt;, &lt;/strong&gt;limits to adaptation will be reached above 1.5&amp;#176;C and loss and damage will be inferred. Coastal Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have arisen as popular adaptation options, particularly for coastal developing economies and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), because of their lower overall costs compared to traditional grey infrastructure approaches such as seawalls and levees; their economic co-benefits through positive effects on sectors such as tourism and fisheries; and a broader desire to shift toward so-called blue economies. Two NbS of particular interest for coastal protection are: 1) coral reefs, which reduce coastal erosion and flooding through wave attenuation; and 2) mangroves, which provide protection from storms, tsunamis and coastal erosion. Although there is international enthusiasm to implement these solutions, there is limited understanding of the future viability of these ecosystems, particularly in their capacities as coastal adaptation service providers, in a warmer world.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this presentation, we highlight how long and with how much coverage coral and mangrove ecosystems can provide coastal protection services for future climate scenarios, using air temperature and sea level rise as climate change indicators. A mathematical model for each ecosystem is developed, based on the physical parameters necessary for the sustainability of these ecosystems. We investigate the protective capabilities of each ecosystem under warming and sea level rise scenarios compatible with: below 1.5&amp;#176;C warming; below 2&amp;#176;C warming; warming based on current global commitments to carbon emissions reductions (3-3.5&amp;#176;C); and with no carbon mitigation (6&amp;#176;C). Results show what temperature and sea level rise values beyond which these ecosystems can no longer provide coastal protective services. These results have also been framed in a temporal window to show when these services may not be feasible, beyond which more costly adaptation measures and/or loss and damage may be incurred.&lt;/p&gt;


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