Short Communication: Atmospheric moisture transport, the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice melting

Abstract. If we could choose a region where the effects of global warming are likely to be pronounced and considerable, and at the same time one where the changes could affect the global climate in similarly asymmetric way with respect to other regions, this would unequivocally be the Arctic. The atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle lies behind the linkages between the Arctic system and the global climate. Changes in the atmospheric moisture transport have been proposed as a vehicle for interpreting the most significant changes in the Arctic region. This is because the transport of moisture from the extratropical regions to the Arctic has increased in recent decades, and is expected to increase within a warming climate. This increase could be due either to changes in circulation patterns which have altered the moisture sources, or to changes in the intensity of the moisture sources because of enhanced evaporation, or a combination of these two mechanisms. In this short communication we focus on the assessing more objectively the strong link between ocean evaporation trends and Arctic Sea ice melting. We will critically analyze several recent results suggesting links between moisture transport and the extent of sea-ice in the Arctic, this being one of the most distinct indicators of continuous climate change both in the Arctic and on a global scale. To do this we will use a sophisticated Lagrangian approach to develop a more robust framework on some of these previous disconnect ng results, using new information and insights. Among the many mechanisms that could be involved are hydrological (increased Arctic river discharges), radiative (increase of cloud cover and water vapour) and meteorological (increase in summer storms crossing the Arctic, or increments in precipitation).

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Atmospheric moisture transport: the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice melting

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-6-583-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 583-589 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

L. Gimeno ◽

M. Vázquez ◽

R. Nieto ◽

R. M. Trigo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

The Arctic ◽

Atmospheric Moisture ◽

Ice Melting ◽

Moisture Sources ◽

The North ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

Atmospheric Moisture Transport

Abstract. Changes in the atmospheric moisture transport have been proposed as a vehicle for interpreting some of the most significant changes in the Arctic region. The increasing moisture over the Arctic during the last decades is not strongly associated with the evaporation that takes place within the Arctic area itself, despite the fact that the sea ice cover is decreasing. Such an increment is consistent and is more dependent on the transport of moisture from the extratropical regions to the Arctic that has increased in recent decades and is expected to increase within a warming climate. This increase could be due either to changes in circulation patterns which have altered the moisture sources, or to changes in the intensity of the moisture sources because of enhanced evaporation, or a combination of these two mechanisms. In this short communication we focus on the more objective assessment of the strong link between ocean evaporation trends and Arctic Sea ice melting. We will critically analyse several recent results suggesting links between moisture transport and the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, this being one of the most distinct indicators of continuous climate change both in the Arctic and on a global scale. To do this we will use a sophisticated Lagrangian approach to develop a more robust framework on some of these previous disconnecting results, using new information and insights. Results reached in this study stress the connection between two climate change indicators, namely an increase in evaporation over source regions (mainly the Mediterranean Sea, the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean in the paths of the global western boundary currents and their extensions) and Arctic ice melting precursors.

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The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-10-121-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 121-133 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Luis Gimeno-Sotelo ◽

Raquel Nieto ◽

Marta Vázquez ◽

Luis Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Melting ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Moisture Sources ◽

Arctic Sea

Abstract. By considering the moisture transport for precipitation (MTP) for a target region to be the moisture that arrives in this region from its major moisture sources and which then results in precipitation in that region, we explore (i) whether the MTP from the main moisture sources for the Arctic region is linked with inter-annual fluctuations in the extent of Arctic sea ice superimposed on its decline and (ii) the role of extreme MTP events in the inter-daily change in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) when extreme MTP simultaneously arrives from the four main moisture regions that supply it. The results suggest (1) that ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring and, (2) on a daily basis, extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons extreme humidity transport therefore contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to the decline on a long-range scale, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies, as ice melt is favoured by a decrease in moisture transport for this season at this scale.

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The role of moisture transport for precipitation on the interannual and inter-daily fluctuations of the arctic sea ice extension

10.5194/esd-2018-59 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Luis Gimeno-Sotelo ◽

Raquel Nieto ◽

Marta Vázquez ◽

Luis Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Melting ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Moisture Sources ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Interannual Fluctuations

Abstract. By considering the moisture transport for precipitation (MTP) for a target region to be the moisture that arrives in this region from its major moisture sources and which then results in precipitation in that region, we explore i) whether the MTP from the main moisture sources for the Arctic region is linked with interannual fluctuations in the extent of Arctic Sea ice superimposed on its decline and ii) the role of extreme MTP events in the inter-daily change of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) when extreme MTP simultaneously arrives from the four main moisture regions that supply it. The results suggest 1) that ice-melting at the scale of interannual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter, and a decrease in spring and, 2) on a daily basis, extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer and autumn; in these 3 seasons it therefore contributes to Arctic Sea Ice Melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to the decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.

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Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1002/2016gl069330 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 43 (12) ◽

pp. 6636-6642 ◽

Cited By ~ 79

Author(s):

Jonas Mortin ◽

Gunilla Svensson ◽

Rune G. Graversen ◽

Marie-Luise Kapsch ◽

Julienne C. Stroeve ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Moisture ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Atmospheric Moisture Transport

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Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change ◽

10.1002/wcc.588 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. e588 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Luis Gimeno ◽

Marta Vázquez ◽

Jorge Eiras‐Barca ◽

Rogert Sorí ◽

Iago Algarra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Moisture ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Atmospheric Moisture Transport

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Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035

Communications Earth & Environment ◽

10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

David Docquier ◽

Torben Koenigk

Keyword(s):

Model Selection ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Area And Volume

AbstractArctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models.

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Hydroclimatic Controls on the Isotopic (δ18 O, δ2 H, d-excess) Traits of Pan-Arctic Summer Rainfall Events

Frontiers in Earth Science ◽

10.3389/feart.2021.651731 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Moein Mellat ◽

Hannah Bailey ◽

Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen ◽

Hannu Marttila ◽

Eric S. Klein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Summer Rainfall ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Water ◽

Ongoing Research ◽

Air Masses

Arctic sea-ice loss is emblematic of an amplified Arctic water cycle and has critical feedback implications for global climate. Stable isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) are valuable tracers for constraining water cycle and climate processes through space and time. Yet, the paucity of well-resolved Arctic isotope data preclude an empirically derived understanding of the hydrologic changes occurring today, in the deep (geologic) past, and in the future. To address this knowledge gap, the Pan-Arctic Precipitation Isotope Network (PAPIN) was established in 2018 to coordinate precipitation sampling at 19 stations across key tundra, subarctic, maritime, and continental climate zones. Here, we present a first assessment of rainfall samples collected in summer 2018 (n = 281) and combine new isotope and meteorological data with sea ice observations, reanalysis data, and model simulations. Data collectively establish a summer Arctic Meteoric Water Line where δ2H = 7.6⋅δ18O–1.8 (r2 = 0.96, p < 0.01). Mean amount-weighted δ18O, δ2H, and d-excess values were −12.3, −93.5, and 4.9‰, respectively, with the lowest summer mean δ18O value observed in northwest Greenland (−19.9‰) and the highest in Iceland (−7.3‰). Southern Alaska recorded the lowest mean d-excess (−8.2%) and northern Russia the highest (9.9‰). We identify a range of δ18O-temperature coefficients from 0.31‰/°C (Alaska) to 0.93‰/°C (Russia). The steepest regression slopes (>0.75‰/°C) were observed at continental sites, while statistically significant temperature relations were generally absent at coastal stations. Model outputs indicate that 68% of the summer precipitating air masses were transported into the Arctic from mid-latitudes and were characterized by relatively high δ18O values. Yet 32% of precipitation events, characterized by lower δ18O and high d-excess values, derived from northerly air masses transported from the Arctic Ocean and/or its marginal seas, highlighting key emergent oceanic moisture sources as sea ice cover declines. Resolving these processes across broader spatial-temporal scales is an ongoing research priority, and will be key to quantifying the past, present, and future feedbacks of an amplified Arctic water cycle on the global climate system.

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Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-1383-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 1383-1406 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. J. Hezel ◽

T. Fichefet ◽

F. Massonnet

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

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Multidecadal Arctic sea ice thickness and volume derived from ice age

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-14-1325-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 1325-1345 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yinghui Liu ◽

Jeffrey R. Key ◽

Xuanji Wang ◽

Mark Tschudi

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Age ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Sea Ice Thickness ◽

Ice Volume ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Sea ice is a key component of the Arctic climate system, and has impacts on global climate. Ice concentration, thickness, and volume are among the most important Arctic sea ice parameters. This study presents a new record of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from 1984 to 2018 based on an existing satellite-derived ice age product. The relationship between ice age and ice thickness is first established for every month based on collocated ice age and ice thickness from submarine sonar data (1984–2000) and ICESat (2003–2008) and an empirical ice growth model. Based on this relationship, ice thickness is derived for the entire time period from the weekly ice age product, and the Arctic monthly sea ice volume is then calculated. The ice-age-based thickness and volume show good agreement in terms of bias and root-mean-square error with submarine, ICESat, and CryoSat-2 ice thickness, as well as ICESat and CryoSat-2 ice volume, in February–March and October–November. More detailed comparisons with independent data from Envisat for 2003 to 2010 and CryoSat-2 from CPOM, AWI, and NASA GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) for 2011 to 2018 show low bias in ice-age-based thickness. The ratios of the ice volume uncertainties to the mean range from 21 % to 29 %. Analysis of the derived data shows that the ice-age-based sea ice volume exhibits a decreasing trend of −411 km3 yr−1 from 1984 to 2018, stronger than the trends from other datasets. Of the factors affecting the sea ice volume trends, changes in sea ice thickness contribute more than changes in sea ice area, with a contribution of at least 80 % from changes in sea ice thickness from November to May and nearly 50 % in August and September, while less than 30 % is from changes in sea ice area in all months.

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Nudging the Arctic Ocean to Quantify Sea Ice Feedbacks

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0321.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (8) ◽

pp. 2381-2395

Author(s):

Evelien Dekker ◽

Richard Bintanja ◽

Camiel Severijns

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Surface Albedo ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Climate Response ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

AbstractWith Arctic summer sea ice potentially disappearing halfway through this century, the surface albedo and insulating effects of Arctic sea ice will decrease considerably. The ongoing Arctic sea ice retreat also affects the strength of the Planck, lapse rate, cloud, and surface albedo feedbacks together with changes in the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, but their combined effect on climate sensitivity has not been quantified. This study presents an estimate of all Arctic sea ice related climate feedbacks combined. We use a new method to keep Arctic sea ice at its present-day (PD) distribution under a changing climate in a 50-yr CO2 doubling simulation, using a fully coupled global climate model (EC-Earth, version 2.3). We nudge the Arctic Ocean to the (monthly dependent) year 2000 mean temperature and minimum salinity fields on a mask representing PD sea ice cover. We are able to preserve about 95% of the PD mean March and 77% of the September PD Arctic sea ice extent by applying this method. Using simulations with and without nudging, we estimate the climate response associated with Arctic sea ice changes. The Arctic sea ice feedback globally equals 0.28 ± 0.15 W m−2 K−1. The total sea ice feedback thus amplifies the climate response for a doubling of CO2, in line with earlier findings. Our estimate of the Arctic sea ice feedback agrees reasonably well with earlier CMIP5 global climate feedback estimates and shows that the Arctic sea ice exerts a considerable effect on the Arctic and global climate sensitivity.

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