Supplementary material to "First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect"

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Matthew Gidden ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Aerosol Optical Properties ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
The Future ◽  
Supplementary Material

scholarly journals First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 989-1007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Matthew Gidden ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Aerosol Optical Properties ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Spatial Asymmetries

Abstract. We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., 2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from −0.15 W m−2 for SSP1-19 to −0.54 W m−2 for SSP3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to −0.39 and −0.92 W m−2, respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m−2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

scholarly journals First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Matthew Gidden ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Aerosol Optical Properties ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spatial Asymmetries ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO2 and NH3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The spread for the mid-2090s is −0.20 to −0.57 Wm−2 (−0.15 to −0.54 Wm−2) for RF (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, associated with uncertainty in the emission pathway alone, i.e., the mid-2090s forcing ranges from 33–95% (30–108%) of the mid-2000s RF (ERF). We find a larger ERF spread of −0.15 to −0.92 Wm−2, when we additionally consider uncertainty in the magnitude of the Twomey effect. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 Wm−2 associated with natural variability highlights the necessity for averaging over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF, in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just one year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

scholarly journals MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Stephanie Fiedler ◽  
Stefan Kinne ◽  
Karsten Peters ◽  
Sebastian Rast ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Industrial Emissions ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Aerosol Optical Properties ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Radiative

Abstract. A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shape of the plumes is fit to the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, version 2, whose present-day (2005) distribution is anchored by surface-based observations. Two types of plumes are considered: one predominantly associated with biomass burning, the other with industrial emissions. These differ in the prescription of their annual cycle and in their optical properties, thereby implicitly accounting for different contributions of absorbing aerosol to the different plumes. A Twomey effect for each plume is prescribed as a change in the host model's background cloud-droplet population density using relationships derived from satellite data. Year-to-year variations in the amplitude of the plumes over the historical period (1850–2016) are derived by scaling the plumes with associated national emission sources of SO2 and NH3. Experiments using MACv2-SP are performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The globally and annually averaged instantaneous and effective aerosol radiative forcings are estimated to be −0.6 and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (the Twomey effect) offsets the reduction of clear-sky forcing by clouds, so that the net effect of clouds on the aerosol forcing is small; hence, the clear-sky forcing, which is more readily measurable, provides a good estimate of the total aerosol forcing.

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