scholarly journals A Mechanistic Analysis of Tropical Pacific Dynamic Sea Level in GFDL-OM4 under OMIP-I and OMIP-II Forcings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Wei Hsu ◽  
Jianjun Yin ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Raphael Dussin

Abstract. The sea level over the tropical Pacific is a key indicator reflecting vertically integrated heat distribution over the ocean. Here we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory OM4 (GFDL-OM4) global ocean-sea ice model forced by both the CORE and JRA55-do atmospheric states (OMIP-I and OMIP-II) to evaluate the model performance and biases compared against available observations. We find persisting mean state dynamic sea level (DSL) bias along 9° N even with updated wind forcing in JRA55-do relative to CORE. The mean state bias is related to biases in wind stress forcing and geostrophic currents in the 4° N to 9° N latitudinal band. The simulation forced by JRA55-do significantly reduces the bias in DSL trend over the northern tropical Pacific relative to CORE. In the CORE forcing, the anomalous westerly wind trend in the eastern tropical Pacific causes an underestimated DSL trend across the entire Pacific basin along 10° N. The simulation forced by JRA55-do significantly reduces the bias in DSL trend over the northern tropical Pacific relative to CORE. We also identify a bias in the easterly wind trend along 20° N in both JRA55-do and CORE, thus motivating future improvement. In JRA55-do, an accurate Rossby wave initiated in the eastern tropical Pacific at seasonal time scale corrects a biased seasonal variability of the northern equatorial counter-current in the CORE simulation. Both CORE and JRA55-do generate realistic DSL variation during El Nino. We find an asymmetry in the DSL pattern on two sides of the equator is strongly related to wind stress curl that follows the sea level pressure evolution during El Niño.

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 2458-2477 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. Middleton ◽  
Craig Arthur ◽  
Paul Van Ruth ◽  
Tim M. Ward ◽  
Julie L. McClean ◽  
...  

Abstract To determine the possible importance of ENSO events along the coast of South Australia, an exploratory analysis is made of meteorological and oceanographic data and output from a global ocean model. Long time series of coastal sea level and wind stress are used to show that while upwelling favorable winds have been more persistent since 1982, ENSO events (i) are largely driven by signals from the west Pacific Ocean shelf/slope waveguide and not local meteorological conditions, (ii) can account for 10-cm changes in sea level, and (iii) together with wind stress, explain 62% of the variance of annual-averaged sea level. Thus, both local winds and remote forcing from the west Pacific are likely important to the low-frequency shelf edge circulation. Evidence also suggests that, since 1983, wintertime downwelling during the onset of an El Niño is reduced and the following summertime upwelling is enhanced. In situ data show that during the 1998 and 2003 El Niño events anomalously cold (10.5°–11.5°C) water is found at depths of 60–120 m and is more than two standard deviations cooler than the mean. A regression showed that averaged sea level can provide a statistically significant proxy for these subsurface temperature changes and indicates a 2.2°C decrease in temperature for the 10-cm decrease in sea level that was driven by the 1998 El Niño event. Limited current- meter observations, long sea level records, and output from a global ocean model were also examined and provide support for the hypothesis that El Niño events substantially reduce wintertime (but not summertime) shelf-edge currents. Further research to confirm this asymmetric response and its cause is required.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. e0232737
Author(s):  
Ana María Santana-Piñeros ◽  
Yanis Cruz-Quintana ◽  
Ana Luisa May-Tec ◽  
Geormery Mera-Loor ◽  
María Leopoldina Aguirre-Macedo ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. e1500560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Widlansky ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Wenju Cai

Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 595-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Huang

Anomalous rainfall in the tropical Pacific driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial pathway of ENSO’s global impacts. The changes in ENSO rainfall under global warming vary among the models, even though previous studies have shown that many models project that ENSO rainfall will likely intensify and shift eastward in response to global warming. The present study evaluates the robustness of the changes in ENSO rainfall in 32 CMIP5 models forced under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The robust increase in mean-state moisture dominates the robust intensification of ENSO rainfall. The uncertain amplitude changes in ENSO-related SST variability are the largest source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes through influencing the amplitude changes in ENSO-driven circulation variability, whereas the structural changes in ENSO SST and ENSO circulation enhancement in the central Pacific are more robust than the amplitude changes. The spatial pattern of the mean-state SST changes—the departure of local SST changes from the tropical mean—with an El Niño–like pattern is a relatively robust factor, although it also contains pronounced intermodel differences. The intermodel spread of historical ENSO circulation is another noteworthy source of the uncertainty in ENSO rainfall changes. The intermodel standard deviation of ENSO rainfall changes increases along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature. However, the robustness of enhanced ENSO rainfall changes in the central-eastern Pacific is almost unchanged, whereas the eastward shift of ENSO rainfall is increasingly robust along with the increase in global-mean surface temperature.


1988 ◽  
Vol 70 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 198
Author(s):  
C.T. Shen ◽  
R.B. Dunbar ◽  
M.W. Colgan ◽  
P.W. Glynn

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksey Yu Sadekov ◽  
Raja Ganeshram ◽  
Laetitia Pichevin ◽  
Rose Berdin ◽  
Erin McClymont ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (20) ◽  
pp. 5423-5434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Seon Tae Kim

Abstract This study examines preindustrial simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), models to show that a tendency exists for El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies to be located farther eastward than La Niña anomalies during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events but farther westward than La Niña anomalies during weak ENSO events. Such reversed spatial asymmetries are shown to force a slow change in the tropical Pacific Ocean mean state that in return modulates ENSO amplitude. CMIP3 models that produce strong reversed asymmetries experience cyclic modulations of ENSO intensity, in which strong and weak events occur during opposite phases of a decadal variability mode associated with the residual effects of the reversed asymmetries. It is concluded that the reversed spatial asymmetries enable an ENSO–tropical Pacific mean state interaction mechanism that gives rise to a decadal modulation of ENSO intensity and that at least three CMIP3 models realistically simulate this interaction mechanism.


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