Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems
for the South China Sea

Abstract. In this paper, the performance of two operational ocean forecasting systems, the global Mercator Océan (MO) Operational System, developed and maintained by Mercator Océan in France, and the regional South China Sea Operational Forecasting System (SCSOFS), by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) in China, have been examined. Both systems can provide science-based nowcast/forecast products of temperature, salinity, water level, and ocean circulations. Comparison and validation of the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities, such as ocean fronts, typhoons, and mesoscale eddies, are conducted based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012 in the South China Sea. The results showed that MO performs better in simulating the ocean circulations and sea surface temperature (SST), and SCSOFS performs better in simulating the structures of temperature and salinity. For the mesoscale activities, the performance of SCSOFS is better than MO in simulating SST fronts and SST decrease during Typhoon Tembin compared with the previous studies and satellite data; but model results from both of SCSOFS and MO show some differences from satellite observations. In conclusion, some recommendations have been proposed for both forecast systems to improve their forecasting performance in the near future based on our comparison and validation.

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Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems in the South China Sea

10.5194/nhess-2016-60 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Xueming Zhu ◽

Hui Wang ◽

Guimei Liu ◽

Charly Régnier ◽

Xiaodi Kuang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

South China ◽

The South China Sea ◽

The South ◽

China Sea ◽

In Situ Data ◽

Operational Forecasting ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Salinity Water ◽

Ocean Forecasting

Abstract. In this paper, the performances of two operational ocean forecasting systems, Mercator Océan (MO) in France and South China Sea Operational Forecasting System (SCSOFS) in China, have been examined. Both systems can provide science-based nowcast/forecast products, such as temperature, salinity, water level and ocean circulations. Based on the observed satellite and in-situ data have been obtained in 2012 in the South China Sea, the comparison and validation of the ocean circulations, the structures of the temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities are shown. Comparing with the observation, the ocean circulations and SST of MO show better results than those of SCSOFS. However, the structures of temperature and salinity of SCSOFS are better than those of MO. For the mesoscale activities, SST fronts and SST decreasing during the typhoon Tembin of SCSOFS are better agreement with the previous study or satellite data than those of MO; but both of them show some differences from AVISO data. Finally, according to the results compared in above, some suggestions have been proposed for both systems to improve their performances in the near further.

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Eddy Heat Transport in the South China Sea as Estimated from In Situ Data and an Assimilated Ocean Model

10.1002/essoar.10501405.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Ruibin Ding ◽

Jiliang Xuan ◽

Feng Zhou ◽

Tao Zhang ◽

In-Sik Kang

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

Heat Transport ◽

South China ◽

Ocean Model ◽

The South China Sea ◽

The South ◽

China Sea ◽

In Situ Data ◽

Eddy Heat Transport

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A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011–13

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-14-00070.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 471-485 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Shiqiu Peng ◽

Yineng Li ◽

Xiangqian Gu ◽

Shumin Chen ◽

Dongxiao Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

Real Time ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

South China ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

The South China Sea ◽

The South ◽

China Sea ◽

Forecasting System ◽

Atmosphere Model

Abstract A real-time regional forecasting system for the South China Sea (SCS), called the Experimental Platform of Marine Environment Forecasting (EPMEF), is introduced in this paper. EPMEF consists of a regional atmosphere model, a regional ocean model, and a wave model, and performs a real-time run four times a day. Output from the Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as the initial and boundary conditions of two nested domains of the atmosphere model, which can exert a constraint on the development of small- and mesoscale atmospheric perturbations through dynamical downscaling. The forecasted winds at 10-m height from the atmosphere model are used to drive the ocean and wave models. As an initial evaluation, a census on the track predictions of 44 tropical cyclones (TCs) during 2011–13 indicates that the performance of EPMEF is very encouraging and comparable to those of other official agencies worldwide. In particular, EPMEF successfully predicted several abnormal typhoon tracks including the sharp recurving of Megi (2010) and the looping of Roke (2011). Further analysis reveals that the dynamically downscaled GFS forecasts from the most updated forecast cycle and the optimal combination of different microphysics and PBL schemes primarily contribute to the good performance of EPMEF in TC track forecasting. EPMEF, established primarily for research purposes with the potential to be implemented into operations, provides valuable information not only to the operational forecasters of local marine/meteorological agencies or international TC forecast centers, but also to other stakeholders such as the fishing industry and insurance companies.

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