scholarly journals The whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcello Arosio ◽  
Mario L. V. Martina ◽  
Rui Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Graph Metrics ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Reductionist Approach

Abstract. Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important but challenging problem. In today's intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relationships call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk evaluated individually at each of its elements. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system to be a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to assess risk more thoroughly. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a holistic approach to analyse risk in complex systems based on the construction and study of a graph, the mathematical structure to model connections between elements. We demonstrate that representing a complex system such as an urban settlement by means of a graph, and using the techniques made available by the branch of mathematics called graph theory, will have at least two advantages. First, it is possible to establish analogies between certain graph metrics (e.g. authority, degree and hub values) and the risk variables (exposure, vulnerability and resilience) and leverage these analogies to obtain a deeper knowledge of the exposed system to a hazard (structure, weaknesses, etc.). Second, it is possible to use the graph as a tool to propagate the damage into the system, for not only direct but also indirect and cascading effects, and, ultimately, to better understand the risk mechanisms of natural hazards in complex systems. The feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.

scholarly journals Natural hazard risk of complex systems – the whole is more than the sum of its parts: I. A holistic modelling approach based on Graph Theory

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcello Arosio ◽  
Mario L. V. Martina ◽  
Rui Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Graph Theory ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
System Structure ◽  
Graph Metrics ◽  
Collective Risk ◽  
Cascade Effects ◽  
Reductionist Approach

Abstract. Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections, interdependencies and interactions between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk of its elements individually. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system as a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to more thoroughly assess risk. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk in complex systems based on Graph Theory. The paper is organized in two parts: part I describes the proposed approach, and part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City. In part I, we demonstrate that by representing a complex system such as an urban settlement by means of a network (i.e. a graph), it is possible to take advantage of the techniques made available by the branch of mathematics called Graph Theory to analyse its properties. Moreover, it is possible to establish analogies between certain graph metrics (e.g. authority, degree, hub values) and risk variables (exposure, vulnerability and resilience). Leveraging these analogies, one can not only obtain a deeper knowledge of the system (structure, weaknesses, etc.), but also understand its risk mechanisms (how the impacts of a single or multiple natural hazards are propagated, where they are exacerbated), and therefore assess the disaster risk of the system as a whole, including second-order impacts and cascade effects.

scholarly journals Natural hazard risk of complex systems – the whole is more than the sum of its parts: II. A pilot study in Mexico City

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcello Arosio ◽  
Mario L. V. Martina ◽  
Rui Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Soil Subsidence ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Graph Properties ◽  
Reductionist Approach

Abstract. Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today's intricate socio-technological world, characterized by strong urbanization and technological trends, the connections, interdependencies and interactions between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessments, from a reductionist approach to a holistic one. Most commonly, the risk of a system is estimated through a reductionist approach, based on the sum of the risk of its elements individually. In contrast, a holistic approach considers the whole system as a unique entity of interconnected elements, where those connections are taken into account in order to more thoroughly assess risk. To support this paradigm shift, this paper proposes a new holistic approach to assess the risk in complex systems based on Graph Theory. The paper is organized in two parts: part I describes the proposed approach, and part II presents an application to a pilot study in Mexico City. The choice of Mexico City as the study case allows demonstrating the importance of modelling connections and interdependencies to assess risk in a complex urban environment which, in this case, is characterized by increasing risk of urban flooding due to soil subsidence and the presumable failure of the drainage system. In the application, the complexity of Mexico City is depicted by modelling certain selected typologies of elements (i.e. population, fire stations, hospitals, fuel stations, schools and crossroads) and assuming certain rules of connection between them. The relevant graph properties are computed and interpreted from a natural hazard risk perspective, and a simple hazard scenario is then integrated in the analysis. This study highlights both the potential and the relevance of the graph-based approach for natural hazard risk assessment.

scholarly journals A Review of Reductionist versus Systems Perspectives towards ‘Doing the Right Strategies Right’ for Circular Economy Implementation

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Raquel Balanay ◽  
Anthony Halog
Keyword(s):  
Circular Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Review Reports ◽  
The Right ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Analytical Frameworks ◽  
Reductionist Approach

This systematic review examines the importance of a systems/holistic approach in analyzing and addressing the footprints/impacts of business-as-usual activities regarding the development of a circular economy (CE). Recent works on why current CE approaches have to be examined in terms of reductionist vs. systems perspectives are reviewed to tackle questions pertaining to the right or the wrong way of CE implementation. ‘Doing the right thing right’ is essential for sustainability—the ultimate goal of a CE, which must be viewed as a system to begin with. The limited reductionist approach overlooks and thus cannot prognosticate on the formidable unintended consequences that emerge from ‘doing the right things wrong’, consequences that become too costly to undo. The systems approach, being holistic, is complicated and difficult to pursue but open to exciting opportunities to integrate innovations in CE analysis and implementation. Complexity is an inherent downside of the systems approach. However, both approaches are complementary, as reductionist models can be combined to create a system of comprehensive analysis to correct the approach towards implementation of current CE initiatives. This review reports that advancements in systems analytical frameworks and tools are highly important for creating general guidelines on CE analysis and implementation.

scholarly journals Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Unni Marie Kolderup Eidsvig ◽  
Krister Kristensen ◽  
Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Ranking Criteria ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Restoration Effort

Abstract. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analysis to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterize conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure break-down caused by a natural event, are defined as 1) Robustness and buffer capacity, 2) Level of protection, 3) Quality/Level of maintenance and renewal, 4) Adaptability and quality in operational procedures and 5) Transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe the societal consequences of the infrastructure failure, such as Redundancy and/or substitution, Restoration effort/duration, Preparedness, early warning and emergency response and Dependencies and cascading effects. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (depending e.g. on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power network is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

Counterterrorism and International Law

2019 ◽  
pp. 658-676
Author(s):  
Andrea Bianchi
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
International Community ◽  
The Other ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Institutional Policies ◽  
The Rule Of Law

This chapter is an attempt at assessing the overall response provided by the international community, and the main normative strategies pursued by international law in countering international terrorism. To find concrete ways in which the coordination of norms and institutional policies can lead to the implementation of an effective holistic approach to fighting terrorism is the challenge lying ahead for the international community. The chapter argues that respect for human rights and the rule of law may play a central role in this process, by contributing to its legitimacy and increasing its chances of efficacy and stability in the long term. The other new challenge and the real paradigm shift, particularly at times of increasing terrorist violence, lies in thinking of counterterrorism as a precondition for economic growth and sustainable development.

ON A MATHEMATICAL THEORY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS ON NETWORKS WITH APPLICATION TO OPINION FORMATION

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (02) ◽  
pp. 405-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. KNOPOFF
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Stochastic Games ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Active Particles ◽  
Mathematical Equations

This paper presents a development of the so-called kinetic theory for active particles to the modeling of living, hence complex, systems localized in networks. The overall system is viewed as a network of interacting nodes, mathematical equations are required to describe the dynamics in each node and in the whole network. These interactions, which are nonlinearly additive, are modeled by evolutive stochastic games. The first conceptual part derives a general mathematical structure, to be regarded as a candidate towards the derivation of models, suitable to capture the main features of the said systems. An application on opinion formation follows to show how the theory can generate specific models.

THEORETICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS THEORY FOR TEACHING SCIENCE

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parvin Bazghandi ◽  
◽  
Saeid Zarghami-Hamrah ◽  
Yahya Ghaedi ◽  
Alireza Mahmudnia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
Science Teaching ◽  
Theoretical Investigation ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Teaching Science ◽  
Complex Systems Theory ◽  
Science And Education ◽  
Basic Features

The present study seeks to investigate the implications of triple levels of the complex systems theory, as a theory about nature, science, and education, for teaching science. As one of these implications, we might refer to explaining the basic features of the natural events through non-linear and holistic methods in teaching science. Key words: complex systems theory, holistic approach, science teaching.

Gaia the artist --  towards a unified higher-dimensional paradigm of life and beauty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate C.-Z.-Quehenberger
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Complex Number ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Scientific Paradigm ◽  
Gaia Hypothesis ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Higher Dimensional ◽  
Gaia Theory ◽  
Anticipatory Systems ◽  
Autopoietic Organization

<p><span>The Gaia hypothesis as an ecological hypothesis is proposing that the biosphere and the physical components of the Earth (atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere) are closely integrated to form a complex interacting system that maintains the climatic and biogeochemical conditions on Earth in a preferred homeostasis. Although successful within the current scientific paradigm the explanation of „planetary sentience, or sensitivity“ becomes extremely difficult. As Hegel said, pure truth about nature is only perceivable by a poetic method.</span></p><p><span>Therefor we are proclaiming Gaia, the Earth as a female artist -- as advocated by 16th century scholar Giordano Bruno. This would imply to include such nonscientific categories as beauty, creativity and cosmic consciousness. Hence a unified Gaia theory would require a new scientific paradigm.</span></p><p><span>Based on a previously proposed higher dimensional spacial model  (Gaia 5.0) as „pattern that connects“ that explains the Earth’ intrinsic dynamics we aim to extend<span>  </span>our concept to the question of cognition and planetary sentience, or sensitivity. </span></p><p><span>Hence we claim that  Gaia theory needs an extension of categories in order to understand the full scope of this spectacular place of livelihood and beauty. </span></p><p><span>Therefor we examine he prevalent relational biology that tries to overcome Newtonian point mechanics by relying on Aristotle’s „formal causes“ of the autopoietic organization and (M,R)-system as conceptualized by R. Rosen who refers to a mathematical structure, e.g. mapping of functions. Distinct to differential geometry we suggest as previously introduced higher dimensional geometrical framework (Gaia 5.0) a hyper-Euclidean geometry that allows to understand complex systems based on group theory providing all kinds of symmetries in nature based on a spacial continuum. </span></p><p><span>As a consequence we must not rely on thermodynamic premisses and life and tornados don’t belong to the same class of naturally complex systems. Instead we refer to Schrödinger’s description of a living cell as 4-dimensional entity. Based on complex number spaces we may seek<span>  </span>for further distinctions of processes and define ordered structures based on number theory.</span></p><p><span>Based on this we try to understand anticipatory systems by assigning Bayesian networks to (hyper-) complex number spaces. -- Hence Gaia is not playing dice but takes a <em>random walk in Monte Carlo</em>.</span></p>

ON THE DIFFICULT INTERPLAY BETWEEN LIFE, "COMPLEXITY", AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 1861-1913 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. BELLOMO ◽  
D. KNOPOFF ◽  
J. SOLER
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Theory ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Stochastic Games ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Active Particles ◽  
Suitable Generalization ◽  
Mathematical Sciences

This paper presents a revisiting, with developments, of the so-called kinetic theory for active particles, with the main focus on the modeling of nonlinearly additive interactions. The approach is based on a suitable generalization of methods of kinetic theory, where interactions are depicted by stochastic games. The basic idea consists in looking for a general mathematical structure suitable to capture the main features of living, hence complex, systems. Hopefully, this structure is a candidate towards the challenging objective of designing a mathematical theory of living systems. These topics are treated in the first part of the paper, while the second one applies it to specific case studies, namely to the modeling of crowd dynamics and of the immune competition.

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