Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners

Abstract. This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean modelling suite, and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between 11 and 19 May 2020. The performances of the CMeEWS deterministic models are then assessed with an innovative method using energy banners based on temporal and spatial spectral analysis of the high-pass-filtered air pressure and sea level fields. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian coast, mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.

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Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners

10.5194/nhess-2020-409 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Iva Tojčić ◽

Cléa Denamiel ◽

Ivica Vilibić

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Surrogate Model ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Stochastic Approach ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

False Alarms ◽

Operational Mode ◽

Atmospheric Disturbances ◽

Operational Modelling

Abstract. This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean modelling suite and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between the 11th and 19th of May 2020. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian cost mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events, but also setting off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.

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Eruption Characteristic of the Sleeping Volcano, Sinabung, North Sumatera, Indonesia, and SMS Gateway for Disaster Early Warning System

Indonesian Journal of Geography ◽

10.22146/ijg.17574 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 50 (1) ◽

pp. 70

Author(s):

Sari Bahagiarti Kusumayudha ◽

Puji Lestari ◽

Eko Teguh Paripurno

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Environmental Communication ◽

Great Earthquake ◽

Surrounding Area ◽

People Participation ◽

Long Time ◽

North Latitude

Sinabung, the sleeping volcano since the year 1600 awakened and erupted in 2010, 2013, and 2015. The volcano is located in Karo District, North Sumatera Province, Indonesia, geographically on 3o10’ North Latitude, and 98o23, East Longitude. It is about 2460 m high above sea level, and the highest volcano of Sumatera. Sinabung has been estimated about 400 years long inactive, therefore categorized as B type of volcano. It was astonishing; Sinabung erupted on 27 August 2010, again on November 2013, and in May to June 2015. Awakening of the volcano hypothetically has been triggered by last decade earthquakes happened in North Sumatera and surrounding area, including the great earthquake and tsunami of Aceh, December 2004 that caused about 115,000 people died. Because of the volcano has been slept for a long time, people live in the surrounding area were not prepared yet to facing the eruption. In order to reduce the risk such a countermeasure should be developed especially that directly involving local people participation. In this case such an environmental communication system is needed to be developed, it is SMS gate way for disaster early warning system.

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Early Warning System for Financial Crises

Risk and Contingency Management ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-3932-2.ch001 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 1-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Amir Manzoor

Keyword(s):

Financial Crisis ◽

Early Warning ◽

Financial Crises ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Financial Stability ◽

Time Horizon ◽

Warning System ◽

False Alarms ◽

Financial Risks ◽

Policy Makers

To maintain financial stability, prevention of financial crisis is very important. This prevention is especially is especially important for developing countries where we need robust instruments for prediction of financial crises. One such instrument is Early Warning System (EWS). An EWS provided signals that could reflect the likelihood of a financial crisis over a given time horizon. Changing nature of financial risks due to liberalization of economies has increased the importance of an effective EWS. This chapter explores the state of the art of EWS. It is suggested that policy makers should take into account their objectives and related thresholds of various while developing an EWS since there exists a sharp trade-off between correctly calling crises and false alarms.

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Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-18-807-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 807-812 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Samuele Segoni ◽

Ascanio Rosi ◽

Daniela Lagomarsino ◽

Riccardo Fanti ◽

Nicola Casagli

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Preliminary Investigation ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Back Analysis ◽

Warning System ◽

False Alarms ◽

Rainfall Thresholds ◽

Landslide Early Warning

Abstract. We communicate the results of a preliminary investigation aimed at improving a state-of-the-art RSLEWS (regional-scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating mean soil moisture values averaged over the territorial units of the system. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are not expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods are substituted with soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches consistently reduced false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

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GPS-controlled tide gauges in Indonesia – a German contribution to Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-11-731-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 731-740 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

T. Schöne ◽

J. Illigner ◽

P. Manurung ◽

C. Subarya ◽

C. Zech ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Warning System ◽

Research Centre ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Tsunami Early Warning ◽

Gauge Systems

Abstract. Coastal tide gauges do not only play a central role in the study of climate-related sea level changes but also in tsunami warning systems. Over the past five years, ten GPS-controlled tide gauge systems have been installed by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) in Indonesia to assist the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). These stations are mainly installed at the Indonesian coastline facing the Indian Ocean. The tide gauge systems deliver information about the instantaneous sea level, vertical control information through GPS, and meteorological observations. A tidal analysis at the station's computer allows the detection of rapid changes in the local sea level ("sea level events"/SLE), thus indicating, for example, the arrival time of tsunamis. The technical implementation, communication issues, the operation and the sea level event detection algorithm, and some results from recent earthquakes and tsunamis are described in this paper.

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Accelerating information of tsunami disaster using early warning system (EWS) Devices: smart solution for communication, navigation and surveillance due to tidal sea level

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202133107008 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 331 ◽

pp. 07008

Author(s):

Nurhadi Santosa ◽

Nadjadji Anwar ◽

Bangun Muljo Sukojo ◽

Wesam Al Madhoun

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

The Public ◽

New Device ◽

Tsunami Disaster ◽

Tsunami Risk ◽

The Government ◽

Community Sector

Oneof the important aspects in reducing Tsunami Risk is understanding Natural Hazards. The loss of INA TEWS equipment worth hundreds of billions of rupiah and the occurrence of the Tsunami in Aceh and other parts of Indonesia are warnings that our society needs the help of effective early warning tools at affordable prices. Using this device will make it easier for the community to monitor natural events from the field and reduce disaster risk. Currently the government has purchased hundreds of units of JRC-UNESCO products, namely IDSL (Inexpensive Device for Sea Level), but this device takes 21 minutes of information to reach the community. Therefore, a new device that has been prepared is needed. (FIDELA EARLY WARNING SYSTEM/FEWS) is a tool that involves the Equipment sector, Operations sector and Community sector. The results shows that this device is that the time for sending information to the public is only 5 minutes.

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KAJIAN APLIKASI PANTULAN SINYAL GNSS UNTUK PEMANTAUAN KETINGGIAN PERMUKAAN AIR LAUT

Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia ◽

10.31258/jkfi.16.2.138-142 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 138

Author(s):

Buldan Muslim ◽

Charisma Juni Kumalasari ◽

Novie Chiuman ◽

Muhammad Ichsan Fadhil Arafah

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Sea Level ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Warning System ◽

Reference Station ◽

Ocean Current ◽

Analysis Method ◽

Tsunami Early Warning ◽

Data Analysis Method

Design and experiment of ocean current power generation system have been carried out using the Bach In Indonesia, the tsunami early warning system only applies the earthquake and hydrosphere relationship model to predict tsunamis. To date, no tsunami detector has used radar or GNSS technology. GNSS technology can be applied as an early warning system for tsunamis, provided that tsunamis are caused by earthquakes greater than 7 magnitudes, occur 70 kilometers below sea level, and are caused by normal faults. This could be an alternative to Bouy GNSS which is expensive to install and maintain, especially for countries with vast oceans such as Indonesia. In this paper, a review of the application of GNSS signal reflection was carried out using one International GNSS Service (IGS) station, JOG2, and one Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS), CLSA, each located in Java and Sumatra to investigate the availability of sea level monitoring in Indonesia. Determination of sea level is obtained from two methods, the GNSS signal phase data analysis method and the GNSS Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) data analysis method. Both methods use reflected GNSS signals or multipath effects to obtain sea level. The results of the study show that the number of satellites that pass through Indonesia every 15 minutes is enough to get sea-level data every 15 minutes to one hour. This shows that it is possible to apply the multipath effect to obtain sea level information in Indonesia to detect tides and tsunamis as part of the tsunami early warning system in Indonesia.

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Brief communication: Using punctual soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional scale landslide early warning system

10.5194/nhess-2017-361 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Samuele Segoni ◽

Ascanio Rosi ◽

Daniela Lagomarsino ◽

Riccardo Fanti ◽

Nicola Casagli

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Early Warning ◽

Early Warning System ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Back Analysis ◽

Warning System ◽

Threshold Value ◽

False Alarms ◽

Rainfall Thresholds ◽

Landslide Early Warning

Abstract. We improved a state-of-art RSLEWS (regional scale landslide early warning system) based on rainfall thresholds by integrating punctual soil moisture estimates. We tested two approaches. The simplest can be easily applied to improve other RSLEWS: it is based on a soil moisture threshold value under which rainfall thresholds are not used because landslides are never expected to occur. Another approach deeply modifies the original RSLEWS: thresholds based on antecedent rainfall accumulated over long periods were substituted by soil moisture thresholds. A back analysis demonstrated that both approaches reduced consistently false alarms, while the second approach reduced missed alarms as well.

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