Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

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Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽

10.3390/w13050665 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 665

Author(s):

Chanchai Petpongpan ◽

Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽

Supattra Visessri ◽

Duangrudee Kositgittiwong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Extreme Events ◽

River Basins ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Extreme Floods ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

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Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-2133-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 2133-2155

Author(s):

Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽

Marie Pontoppidan ◽

Erle Kristvik ◽

Knut Alfredsen ◽

Tone M. Muthanna

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Reference Period ◽

Future Period ◽

The Mean ◽

Model Chain ◽

Small Catchments ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

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Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11040391 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 391 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ondřej Lhotka ◽

Stefan Brönnimann

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Data Set ◽

Spring Frost ◽

Frost Risk ◽

Historical Climate ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Swiss Plateau ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Near Future

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

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Soil-Water Storage Predictions for Cultivated Crops on the Záhorská Lowlands

Slovak Journal of Civil Engineering ◽

10.1515/sjce-2016-0010 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

pp. 31-40

Author(s):

Miroslava Jarabicová ◽

Peter Minarič

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Water ◽

Climate Model ◽

Spring Barley ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Water Storage ◽

Soil Water Storage ◽

Reference Period ◽

The Impact ◽

Upper Boundary

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil-water regime of the Záhorská lowlands. The consequences of climate change on soil-water storage were analyzed for two crops: spring barley and maize. We analyzed the consequences of climate change on soil-water storage for two crops: spring barley and maize. The soil-water storage was simulated with the GLOBAL mathematical model. The data entered into the model as upper boundary conditions were established by the SRES A2 and SRES B1 climate scenarios and the KNMI regional climate model for the years from 2071 to 2100 (in the text called the time horizon 2085 which is in the middle this period). For the reference period the data from the years 1961-1990 was used. The results of this paper predict soil-water storage until the end of this century for the crops evaluated, as well as a comparison of the soil-water storage predictions with the course of the soil-water storage during the reference period.

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Winter tourism and climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

10.5194/tc-2018-253 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Pierre Spandre ◽

Hugues François ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Marc Pons ◽

Matthieu Vernay ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Reference Period ◽

Winter Tourism ◽

French Alps ◽

Ski Resorts ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Alps ◽

Natural Snow ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986–2005) and to be highly impacted by the on-going climate change. The technical reliability (i.e. including snowmaking) is projected to rise by 200 m to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 m to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030–2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 % of ski lift infrastructures are reliable in the reference period thanks to snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 % to 25 %) may be considered "at risk" in the near future. Beyond the mid century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP 2.6) or continuous decrease of snow reliability (RCP 8.5). According to the "business as usual" scenario (RCP 8.5), there would no longer be any snow reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080–2100). Only 24 resorts are projected to remain technically reliable, all being located in the Alps.

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Pedoclimatic comparison of three viticultural areas of Italy devoted to high-quality Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon production

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7384 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Eugenia Monaco ◽

Roberto De Mascellis ◽

Giuliana Barbato ◽

Paola Mercogliano ◽

Maurizio Buonanno ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Mediterranean Area ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Cabernet Sauvignon ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Italian Regions ◽

Berry Quality ◽

Rcp 8.5

In the Mediterranean area, the expected increase in temperature coupled with the decrease in rainfall, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme events (heatwaves and drought, IPCC, 2019), will severely affect the survival of current vineyard areas. Cultivar thermal requirement and soil water availability could be not satisfied, leading to a limitation in yield and berry quality also due to constraints in the achievement of optimal grape maturity.In this context, the understanding of how the spatial viticultural suitability will change under climate change is of primary interest in order to identify the best adaptation strategies to guarantee the resilience of current viticultural areas. Moreover, the improvement of knowledge of climate, soil, and their interaction for each specific cultivar will be fundamental because the terroir system is based on this interaction able to influence the plant status (e.g., water).In this study, different pedo-climatic conditions (past, present, and future) in three Italian sites at different latitudes (from center to southern), were compared for two red varieties of grapevine: Aglianico (indigenous cv) and Cabernet Sauvignon (international cv).Grapevine adaptation to future climate in each experimental farm in Campania, Molise, and Sicily Italian regions has been realized through the use of bioclimatic indexes (e.g., Amerine & Winkler for Aglianico 2110 GDD). The climatic evaluation was performed using Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at high-resolution (8km x 8km) climate projections RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2010-2100) and Reference Climate (RC, 1971-2005).Results have shown how climate change will affect the cultivation of Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon, considering both the climate and bioclimatic needs of cultivars themselves in the current viticultural areas.Finally, coupled with the climatic evaluation, a pedological survey to characterize the soils, and the analysis of satellite images (Sentinel2 ) coupled with stemwood anatomical analysis has been performed to reconstruct the past eco-physiological behavior.

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Water supply patterns over Germany under climate change conditions

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-10-2959-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 2959-2972 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

M. H. Tölle ◽

C. Moseley ◽

O. Panferov ◽

G. Busch ◽

A. Knohl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Reference Period ◽

The Mean ◽

Time Periods

Abstract. A large ensemble of 24 bias-corrected and uncorrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations is used to investigate climate change impacts on water supply patterns over Germany using the seasonal winter and summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on 6-month precipitation sums. The climate change signal is studied comparing SPI characteristics for the reference period 1971–2000 with those of the "near" (2036–2065) and the "far" (2071–2100) future. The spread of the climate change signal within the simulation ensemble of bias-corrected versus non-corrected data is discussed. Ensemble scenarios are evaluated against available observation-based data over the reference period 1971–2000. After correcting the model biases, the model ensemble underestimates the variability of the precipitation climatology in the reference period, but replicates the mean characteristics. Projections of water supply patterns based on the SPI for the time periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 show wetter winter months during both future time periods. As a result soil drying may be delayed to late spring extending into the summer period, which could have an important effect on sensible heat fluxes. While projections indicate wetting in summer during 2036–2065, drier summers are estimated towards the south-west of Germany for the end of the 21st century. The use of the bias correction intensifies the signal to wetter conditions for both seasons and time periods. The spread in the projection of future water supply patterns between the ensemble members is explored, resulting in high spatial differences that suggest a higher uncertainty of the climate change signal in the southern part of Germany. It is shown that the spread of the climate change signals between SPIs based on single ensemble members is twice as large as the difference between the mean climate change signal of SPIs based on bias-corrected and uncorrected precipitation. This implies that the sensitivity of the SPI to the modelled precipitation bias is small compared to the range of the climate change signals within our ensemble. Therefore, the SPI is a very useful tool for climate change studies allowing us to avoid the additional uncertainties caused by bias corrections.

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Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2014/376738 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-17 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Michelle Simões Reboita ◽

Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha ◽

Cássia Gabriele Dias ◽

Rita Yuri Ynoue

Keyword(s):

South America ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

South American ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Increase ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.

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Climate Change Influences of Temporal and Spatial Drought Variation in the Andean High Mountain Basin

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10090558 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 558 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dario Zhiña ◽

Martín Montenegro ◽

Lisseth Montalván ◽

Daniel Mendoza ◽

Juan Contreras ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Return Periods ◽

Base Period ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Near Future ◽

Far Future

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades.

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Climate change is implicating a two-fold impact on air temperature increase in the ripening period under the conditions of the Luxembourgish grapegrowing region

OENO One ◽

10.20870/oeno-one.2019.53.3.2329 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 53 (3) ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Daniel Molitor ◽

Jürgen Junk

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Vitis Vinifera L ◽

Reference Period ◽

Phenological Model ◽

Ripening Period ◽

The Future ◽

Far Future

Aim: Grape (Vitis vinifera L.) phenology is mainly temperature-driven. Consequently, the shift in thermal conditions due to climate change is supposed to have a distinct influence on grape phenology, grape maturity and wine typicity. This study aims to investigate (i) the future phenological development, as well as (ii) the consequences on the temperature conditions in specific phenophases under the conditions of the Luxembourg grapegrowing region.Methods and Results: A budburst model and a phenological model were combined with an ensemble of ten regional climate change projections for Luxembourg. Analyses comparing four 30-year time spans (reference period: 1971-2000; present: 2001-2030; near future: 2031-2060; far future: 2061-2090) demonstrated that each of the 27 phenological stages according to BBCH code is projected to be reached significantly earlier than in the reference period. According to these projections, the length of phenophases at the early stages is not affected, whereas the ripening period length is significantly shortened. The air temperature increase in the ripening period (far future compared to reference period: + 4.6 °C to + 5.3 °C) is projected to be markedly higher than in the annual averages (+ 2.6 °C).Conclusions: Since (i) air temperatures are generally projected to increase in the future and (ii) the ripening period will take place earlier (usually in the warmer parts of the season), climate change is implicating a two-fold impact on air temperature increase in the ripening period.Significance and impact of the study: This two-fold impact potentially threatens the wine typicity of the traditional grapegrowing regions and therefore calls for specific adaptation strategies.

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