scholarly journals Parameter Optimization in Sea Ice Models with Elastic-Viscoplastic Rheology

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gleb Panteleev ◽  
Max Yaremchuk ◽  
Jacob N. Stroh ◽  
Oceana P. Francis ◽  
Richard Allard

Abstract. Ice rheology formulation is the key component of the modern sea ice modeling. In the CICE6 community model, rheology and landfast grounding/arching effects are simulated by functions of the sea ice thickness and concentration with a set of fixed parameters empirically adjusted to optimize the model performance. In this study we consider a spatially variable extension of representing these parameters in the two-dimensional EVP sea ice model with a formulation similar to CICE6. Feasibility of optimization of the rheological and landfast sea ice parameters is assessed by applying variational data assimilation to the synthetic observations of ice concentration, thickness and velocity. It is found that the tangent linear and adjoint models featuring EVP rheology are unstable, but can be stabilized by adding Newtonian damping term into the adjoint equation. The set of the observation system simulation experiments shows that landfast parameter distributions can be reconstructed after 5–10 iterations of the minimization procedure. Optimization of the sea ice initial conditions and spatially varying parameters in the equation for the stress tensor requires more computation, but provides a better hindcast of the sea ice state and the internal stress tensor. Analysis of the inaccuracy in the wind forcing and errors in the sea ice thickness observations have shown reasonable robustness of the variational DA approach and feasibility of its application to the available and incoming observations.

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 4427-4451
Author(s):  
Gleb Panteleev ◽  
Max Yaremchuk ◽  
Jacob N. Stroh ◽  
Oceana P. Francis ◽  
Richard Allard

Abstract. The modern sea ice models include multiple parameters which strongly affect model solution. As an example, in the CICE6 community model, rheology and landfast grounding/arching effects are simulated by functions of the sea ice thickness and concentration with a set of fixed parameters empirically adjusted to optimize the model performance. In this study, we consider the extension of a two-dimensional elastic–viscoplastic (EVP) sea ice model using a spatially variable representation of these parameters. The feasibility of optimization of the landfast sea ice parameters and rheological parameters is assessed via idealized variational data assimilation experiments with synthetic observations of ice concentration, thickness and velocity. The experiments are configured for a 3 d data assimilation window in a rectangular basin with variable wind forcing. The tangent linear and adjoint models featuring EVP rheology are found to be unstable but can be stabilized by adding a Newtonian damping term into the adjoint equations. A set of observation system simulation experiments shows that landfast parameter distributions can be reconstructed after 5–10 iterations of the minimization procedure. Optimization of sea ice initial conditions and spatially varying parameters in the stress tensor equation requires more computation but provides a better hindcast of the sea ice state and the internal stress tensor. Analysis of inaccuracy in the wind forcing and errors in sea ice thickness observations show reasonable robustness of the variational DA approach and the feasibility of its application to available and incoming observations.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiechen Zhao ◽  
Bin Cheng ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Fengming Hui ◽  
...  

<p>The observed snow depth and ice thickness on landfast sea ice in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, were used to determine the role of snow in (a) the annual cycle of sea ice thickness at a fixed location (SIP) where snow usually blows away after snowfall and (b) early summer sea ice thickness within the transportation route surveys (TRS) domain farther from coast, where annual snow accumulation is substantial. The annual mean snow depth and maximum ice thickness had a negative relationship (r = −0.58, p < 0.05) at SIP, indicating a primary insulation effect of snow on ice thickness. However, in the TRS domain, this effect was negligible because snow contributes to ice thickness. A one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model, forced by local weather observations, reproduced the annual cycle of ice thickness at SIP well. During the freeze season, the modeled maximum difference of ice thickness using different snowfall scenarios ranged from 0.53–0.61 m. Snow cover delayed ice surface and ice bottom melting by 45 and 24 days, respectively. The modeled snow ice and superimposed ice accounted for 4–23% and 5–8% of the total maximum ice thickness on an annual basis in the case of initial ice thickness ranging from 0.05–2 m, respectively.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 1001-1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arlan Dirkson ◽  
William J. Merryfield ◽  
Adam Monahan

Abstract A promising means for increasing skill of seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is improving sea ice thickness (SIT) initial conditions; however, sparse SIT observations limit this potential. Using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (CanCM3), three statistical models designed to estimate SIT fields for initialization in a real-time forecasting system are applied to initialize sea ice hindcasts over 1981–2012. Hindcast skill is assessed relative to two benchmark SIT initialization methods (SIT-IMs): a climatological initialization currently used operationally and SIT values from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). Based on several measures of skill, sea ice predictions are generally improved relative to a climatological initialization. The accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with SIT-IMs that best represent both processes. Similar skill to that achieved by initializing with PIOMAS, including skillful predictions of detrended September SIA from May, is obtained by initializing with two of the statistical models. Regional skill for September SIC is also enhanced using improved SIT-IMs, with an increase in the spatial coverage of statistically significant skill from 10% to 60%–70% of the appreciably varying ice pack. Reduced skill is seen, however, in the Nordic seas using the improved SIT-IMs, resulting from an inherent cold sea surface temperature bias in CanCM3 that is amplified by a thicker initial ice cover.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Flocco ◽  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Leandro Ponsoni ◽  
François Massonnett ◽  
Daniel Feltham ◽  
...  

<p>Assimilation of sea ice concentration satellite products has successfully been used to initialize sea ice models and coupled NWP systems. Sea-ice thickness observations, being much less mature, are typically not assimilated. However, many studies suggest that initialization of winter sea-ice thickness could lead to improved prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. We have examined the potential for sea ice thickness observations to improve forecast skill on timescales from days to a year ahead in two state-of-the-art coupled GCMs.</p><p>Here we examine the influence of Arctic sea-ice thickness observations on the potential predictability of the sea-ice and atmospheric circulation using idealised ‘data denial’ experiments. We perform paired sets of ensembles with the HadGEM3 and EC-Earth GCMs using different initial conditions retrieved from present-day control runs.</p><p>One set of ensembles start with complete information about the sea-ice conditions and is treated as “truth”, and one set has degraded sea ice information. We investigate how the pairs of ensembles, all started in January, predict the subsequent evolution of the sea-ice state, sea level pressure and circulation within the Arctic with the aim of quantifying the value of sea-ice observations for improving predictions.</p><p>We show that accurate initialization of sea ice thickness improves the model prediction skill during the first month of simulation and that several sea ice state and atmospheric variables present a re-emergence of skill in September. Prediction skill of several oceanic variables is also observed. The two models present a good agreement in terms of the regions where they show either a skill gain or loss.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom R. Andersson ◽  
J. Scott Hosking ◽  
Eleanor Krige ◽  
Maria Pérez-Ortiz ◽  
Brooks Paige ◽  
...  

<p>Arctic sea ice forecasting is a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. To address such challenges, we have developed a physics-informed, data-driven sea ice forecasting system, IceNet, which outperformed a leading dynamical model (ECMWF SEAS5) in monthly-averaged forecasts of pan-Arctic sea ice concentration. IceNet adopted a U-Net deep learning architecture and was trained on over 2,000 years of CMIP6 climate simulation data. Despite its state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting skill at lead times of 2-6 months, IceNet has two main limitations. First, it could not outperform the dynamical model in short-range (1-month) forecasts. This is partly caused by IceNet operating on monthly-averages, which smears the initial conditions and weather phenomena that can dominate predictability at short time scales. Second, IceNet is afflicted by the ‘spring predictability barrier’ that affects all long range forecasts of summer. This predictability barrier arises primarily due to the importance of melt-season ice thickness conditions on summer sea ice. Here we present our early findings from IceNet2, which attempts to alleviate these issues by operating on daily-averages and including sea ice thickness as an input variable. IceNet2 paves the way for our efforts to aid the Arctic conservation community by developing the first public, operational sea ice forecasting AI.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beena Balan-Sarojini ◽  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Balmaseda ◽  
Hao Zuo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Nowadays many seasonal forecasting centres provide dynamical predictions of sea ice. While initializing sea ice by assimilating sea ice concentration (SIC) is common, constraining initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT) is only at its early stages. Here, we make use of the availability of Arctic-wide winter SIT observations covering 2011–2016 to constrain SIT in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ocean–sea-ice analysis system with the aim of improving the initial conditions of the coupled forecasts. The impact of the improved initialization on the predictive skill of Arctic sea ice for lead times of up to 7 months is investigated in a low-resolution analogue of the currently operational ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5. By using winter SIT information merged from CS2 and SMOS (CS2SMOS: CryoSat2 Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), substantial changes of sea ice volume and thickness are found in the ocean–sea-ice analysis, including damping of the overly strong seasonal cycle of sea ice volume. Compared with the reference experiment, which does not use SIT information, forecasts initialized using SIT data show a reduction of the excess sea ice bias and an overall reduction of seasonal sea ice area forecast errors of up to 5 % at lead months 2 to 5. Using the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) metric, we find significant improvement of up to 28 % in the September sea ice edge forecast started from April. However, sea ice forecasts for September started in spring still exhibit a positive sea ice bias, which points to too slow melting in the forecast model. A slight degradation in skill is found in the early freezing season sea ice forecasts initialized in July and August, which is related to degraded initial conditions during these months. Both the ocean reanalyses, with and without SIT constraint, show strong melting in the middle of the melt season compared to the forecasts. This excessive melting related to positive net surface radiation biases in the atmospheric flux forcing of the ocean reanalyses remains and consequently degrades analysed summer SIC. The impact of thickness initialization is also visible in the sea surface and near-surface temperature forecasts. While positive forecast impact is seen in near-surface temperature forecasts of early freezing season initialized in May (when the sea ice initial conditions have been observationally constrained in the preceding winter months), negative impact is seen for the same season when initialised in August month when the sea ice initial conditions are degraded. We conclude that the strong thinning by CS2SMOS initialization mitigates or enhances seasonally dependent forecast model errors in sea ice and near-surface temperatures in all seasons. The results indicate that the memory of SIT in the spring initial conditions last into autumn, influencing forecasts of the peak summer melt and early freezing seasons. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of new sea ice observational products in both data assimilation and forecasting systems, and strongly suggest that better initialization of SIT is crucial for improving seasonal sea ice forecasts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-344
Author(s):  
Beena Balan-Sarojini ◽  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Balmaseda ◽  
Hao Zuo ◽  
...  

Abstract. Nowadays many seasonal forecasting centres provide dynamical predictions of sea ice. While initializing sea ice by assimilating sea ice concentration (SIC) is common, constraining initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT) is only in its early stages. Here, we make use of the availability of Arctic-wide winter SIT observations covering 2011–2016 to constrain SIT in the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ocean–sea-ice analysis system with the aim of improving the initial conditions of the coupled forecasts. The impact of the improved initialization on the predictive skill of pan-Arctic sea ice for lead times of up to 7 months is investigated in a low-resolution analogue of the currently operational ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5. By using winter SIT information merged from CS2 and SMOS (CS2SMOS: CryoSat-2 Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), substantial changes in sea ice volume and thickness are found in the ocean–sea-ice analysis, including damping of the overly strong seasonal cycle of sea ice volume. Compared with the reference experiment, which does not use SIT information, forecasts initialized using SIT data show a reduction of the excess sea ice bias and an overall reduction of seasonal sea ice area forecast errors of up to 5 % at lead months 2 to 5. Change in biases is the main forecast impact. Using the integrated ice edge error (IIEE) metric, we find significant improvement of up to 28 % in the September sea ice edge forecast started in April. However, sea ice forecasts for September started in spring still exhibit a positive sea ice bias, which points to a melting that is too slow in the forecast model. A slight degradation in skill is found in the early freezing season sea ice forecasts initialized in July and August, which is related to degraded initial conditions during these months. Both ocean reanalyses, with and without SIT constraint, show strong melting in the middle of the melt season compared to the forecasts. This excessive melting related to positive net surface radiation biases in the atmospheric flux forcing of the ocean reanalyses remains and consequently degrades analysed summer SIC. The impact of thickness initialization is also visible in the sea surface and near-surface temperature forecasts. While positive forecast impact is seen in near-surface temperature forecasts of early freezing season (September–October–November) initialized in May (when the sea ice initial conditions have been observationally constrained in the preceding winter months), negative impact is seen for the same season when initialized in the month of August when the sea ice initial conditions are degraded. We conclude that the strong thinning by CS2SMOS initialization mitigates or enhances seasonally dependent forecast model errors in sea ice and near-surface temperatures in all seasons. The results indicate that the memory of SIT in the spring initial conditions lasts into autumn, influencing forecasts of the peak summer melt and early freezing seasons. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of new sea ice observational products in both data assimilation and forecasting systems, and they strongly suggest that better initialization of SIT is crucial for improving seasonal sea ice forecasts.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Wieringa ◽  
Cecilia Bitz

<p>Current sea ice prediction systems exhibit significant room for improvement compared to idealized estimates of sea ice predictability, a gap that could be closed by improving the initial conditions provided to prognostic models. Sea ice volume, the area-weighted integral of sea ice thickness (SIT), in particular, demonstrates long initial value predictability; in other words, accurate forecasting of Arctic sea ice requires highly accurate SIT initial conditions. Continuous records of SIT are, unfortunately, few and far between. To address this conundrum, we have explored applications of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) to constrain the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5) within the Community Earth System Model using satellite-derived SIT observations from 2003 to present day. Our data assimilation system has been fine-tuned using new and highly accurate freeboard measurements from NASA’s ICESat-2 mission. Using SIT information alone, we generate two assimilation products: the first using DART with CICE5 and the second with an offline assimilation method. We compare these products to one another and to the community standard SIT record, PIOMAS. Future work will introduce multivariate assimilation of SIT with other sea ice variables, including sea ice concentration, sea ice skin temperature, and sea surface temperature.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Williams ◽  
Anton Korosov ◽  
Pierre Rampal ◽  
Einar Olason

<p>The neXtSIM-F forecast system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM, forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation.</p><p>neXtSIM is a novel sea ice model which is able to reproduce sea ice deformation properties and statistics, such as spatial localisation and temporal intermittency,<br>even at relatively low resolutions. For our forecast we run it at 10km resolution, over a pan-Arctic domain. We assimilate OSISAF SSMI and AMSR2 sea ice concentration products and the SMOS sea ice thickness product by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. </p><p>We present an evaluation of the platform over the period from November 2018 to present, looking at sea ice drift and concentration and extent, and thin ice thickness.</p><p>neXtSIM-F is scheduled to become part of the CMEMS Arctic Marine Forecast Center in June 2020.</p>


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