scholarly journals Arctic sea ice sensitivity to lateral melting representation in a coupled climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Smith ◽  
Marika Holland ◽  
Bonnie Light
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Floes

Abstract. The melting of sea ice floes from the edges (lateral melting) results in open water formation and subsequently increases absorption of solar shortwave energy. However, lateral melt plays a small role in the sea ice mass budget in both hemispheres in most climate models (Keen et al., 2020). This is likely influenced by simple parameterizations of this process in sea ice models that are constrained by limited observations. Here we use a coupled climate model (CESM2.0) to assess the sensitivity of modeled sea ice state to the lateral melt parameterization. The results show that sea ice is sensitive both to the parameters determining the effective lateral melt rate, as well as the nuances in how lateral melting is applied to the ice pack. Increasing the lateral melt rate within the range of reasonable values is largely compensated by decreases in the basal melt rate, but can still result in a significant decrease in sea ice concentration and thickness, particularly in the marginal ice zone. We suggest that it is important to consider the efficiency of melt processes at forming open water, which drives the majority of the ice-albedo feedback. Melt processes are more efficient at forming open water in thinner ice scenarios (as we are likely to see in the future), suggesting the importance of well representing thermodynamic evolution. Revisiting model parameterizations of lateral melting with observations will require finding new ways to represent important physical processes.

Arctic sea ice volume budget decomposition satellite product for the CryoSat-2 (2010-2020) period 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Heorton ◽  
Michel Tsamados ◽  
Paul Holland ◽  
Jack Landy
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Year ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p><span>We combine satellite-derived observations of sea ice concentration, drift, and thickness to provide the first observational decomposition of the dynamic (advection/divergence) and thermodynamic (melt/growth) drivers of wintertime Arctic sea ice volume change. Ten winter growth seasons are analyzed over the CryoSat-2 period between October 2010 and April 2020. Sensitivity to several observational products is performed to provide an estimated uncertainty of the budget calculations. The total thermodynamic ice volume growth and dynamic ice losses are calculated with marked seasonal, inter-annual and regional variations</span><span>. Ice growth is fastest during Autumn, in the Marginal Seas and over first year ice</span><span>. Our budget decomposition methodology can help diagnose the processes confounding climate model predictions of sea ice. We make our product and code available to the community in monthly pan-Arctic netcdft files for the entire October 2010 to April 2020 period.</span></p>

Gridded Arctic sea ice concentration reconstruction for the first half of the 20th century based on different proxy data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Semenov ◽  
Tatiana Matveeva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>Global warming in the recent decades has been accompanied by a rapid recline of the Arctic sea ice area most pronounced in summer (10% per decade). To understand the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the modern and future sea ice area changes, it is necessary to evaluate a range of long-term variations of the Arctic sea ice area in the period before a significant increase in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Available observational data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Arctic sea ice until 1950s are characterized by significant gaps and uncertainties. In the recent years, there have appeared several reconstructions of the early 20<sup>th</sup> century Arctic sea ice area that filled the gaps by analogue methods or utilized combined empirical data and climate model’s output. All of them resulted in a stronger that earlier believed negative sea ice area anomaly in the 1940s concurrent with the early 20<sup>th</sup> century warming (ETCW) peak. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly average gridded sea ice concentration (SIC) in the first half of the 20th century using the relationship between the spatiotemporal features of SIC variability, surface air temperature over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and sea level pressure. In agreement with a few previous results, our reconstructed data also show a significant negative anomaly of the Arctic sea ice area in the middle of the 20th century, however with some 15% to 30% stronger amplitude, about 1.5 million km<sup>2</sup> in September and 0.7 million km<sup>2</sup> in March. The reconstruction demonstrates a good agreement with regional Arctic sea ice area data when available and suggests that ETWC in the Arctic has been accompanied by a concurrent sea ice area decline of a magnitude that have been exceeded only in the beginning of the 21<sup>st</sup> century.</p>

scholarly journals Broadband albedo of Arctic sea ice from MERIS optical data

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Pohl ◽  
Larysa Istomina ◽  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Evelyn Jäkel ◽  
Johannes Stapf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Averaging Method ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Spectral Averaging

Abstract. Arctic summer sea ice experiences rapid changes in its sea-ice concentration, surface albedo, and the melt pond fraction. This affects the energy balance of the region and demands an accurate knowledge of those surface characteristics in climate models. In this paper, the broadband albedo (300–3000 nm) of Arctic sea ice is derived from MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) optical swath data by transforming the spectral albedo as an output from the Melt Pond Detector (MPD) algorithm with a newly developed spectral-to-broadband conversion (STBC). The new STBC replaces the previously applied spectral averaging method to provide a more accurate broadband albedo product, which approaches the accuracy of 0.02–0.05 required in climate simulations and allows a direct comparison to broadband albedo values from climate models. The STBC is derived empirically from spectral and broadband albedo measurements over landfast ice. It is validated on a variety of simultaneous spectral and broadband field measurements over Arctic sea ice, is compared to existing conversion techniques, and performs better than the currently published algorithms. The root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) between broadband albedo that was measured and converted by the STBC is 0.02. Other conversion techniques, the spectral averaging method and the linear combination of albedo values from four MERIS channels, result in higher RMSDs of 0.09 and 0.05, respectively. The improved MERIS-derived broadband albedo values are validated with airborne measurements. Results show a smaller RMSD of 0.04 for landfast ice than the RMSD of 0.07 for drifting ice. The MERIS-derived broadband albedo is compared to broadband albedo from ERA5 reanalysis to examine the albedo parameterization used in ERA5. Both albedo products agree over large scales and in temporal patterns. However, consistency in point-to-point comparison is rather poor, with differences up to 0.20, correlations between 0.69 and 0.79, and RMSDs in excess of 0.10. Differences in sea-ice concentration and cloud-masking uncertainties play a role, but most discrepancies can be attributed to climatological sea-ice albedo values used in ERA5. They are not adequate and need revising, in order to better simulate surface heat fluxes in the Arctic. The advantage of the resulting broadband albedo data set from MERIS over other published data sets is the accompanied data set of available melt pond fraction. Melt ponds are the main reason for the sea-ice albedo change in summer but are currently not represented in climate models and atmospheric reanalysis. Additional information about melt evolution, together with accurate albedo retrievals, can aid the challenging representation of sea-ice optical properties in those models in summer.

scholarly journals Precursors of September Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Based on Causal Effect Networks

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sha Li ◽  
Muyin Wang ◽  
Nicholas Bond ◽  
Wenyu Huang ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Although standard statistical methods and climate models can simulate and predict sea-ice changes well, it is still very hard to distinguish some direct and robust factors associated with sea-ice changes from its internal variability and other noises. Here, with long-term observations (38 years from 1980 to 2017), we apply the causal effect networks algorithm to explore the direct precursors of September Arctic sea-ice extent by adjusting the maximal lead time from one to eight months. For lead time of more than three months, June downward longwave radiation flux in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is the only one precursor. However, for lead time of 1–3 months, August sea-ice concentration in Western Arctic represents the strongest positive correlation with September sea-ice extent, while August sea-ice concentration factors in other regions have weaker influences on the marginal seas. Other precursors include August wind anomalies in the lower latitudes accompanied with an Arctic high pressure anomaly, which induces the sea-ice loss along the Eurasian coast. These robust precursors can be used to improve the seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice and evaluate the climate models.

Mechanisms for and Predictability of a Drastic Reduction in the Arctic Sea Ice: APPOSITE Data with Climate Model MIROC

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1361-1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ono ◽  
H. Tatebe ◽  
Y. Komuro
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Drastic Reduction ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract The mechanisms for and predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) are investigated using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5.2. Here, a control (CTRL) with forcing fixed at year 2000 levels and perfect-model ensemble prediction (PRED) experiments are conducted. In CTRL, three (model years 51, 56, and 57) drastic SIE reductions occur during a 200-yr-long integration. In year 56, the sea ice moves offshore in association with a positive phase of the summer Arctic dipole anomaly (ADA) index and melts due to heat input through the increased open water area, and the SIE drastically decreases. This provides the preconditioning for the lowest SIE in year 57 when the Arctic Ocean interior is in a warm state and the spring sea ice volume has a large negative anomaly due to drastic ice reduction in the previous year. Although the ADA is one of the key mechanisms behind sea ice reduction, it does not always cause a drastic reduction. Our analysis suggests that wind direction favoring offshore ice motion is a more important factor for drastic ice reduction events. In years experiencing drastic ice reduction events, the September SIE can be skillfully predicted in PRED started from July, but not from April. This is because the forecast errors for the July sea level pressure and those for the sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness along the ice edge are large in PRED started from April.

scholarly journals Achieving realistic Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections in a climate model through stochastic process representation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Strommen ◽  
Stephan Juricke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Process Representation ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Winter Circulation

Abstract. The extent to which interannual variability in Arctic sea ice influences the midlatitude circulation has been extensively debated. While observational data supports the existence of a teleconnection between November sea ice in the Barents-Kara region and the subsequent winter circulation, climate models do not consistently reproduce such a link, with only very weak inter-model consensus. We show, using the EC-Earth3 climate model, that while a deterministic ensemble of coupled simulations shows no evidence of such a teleconnection, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations to the ocean and sea ice component of EC-Earth3 results in the emergence of a robust teleconnection comparable in magnitude to that observed. We show that this can be accounted for entirely by an improved ice-ocean-atmosphere coupling due to the stochastic perturbations. In particular, the inconsistent signal in existing climate model studies may be due to model biases in surface coupling, with stochastic parameterizations being one possible remedy.

scholarly journals Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2653-2687 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. West ◽  
A. B. Keen ◽  
H. T. Hewitt
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ensembles Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract. The fully-coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the MOC and subpolar gyre in some integrations, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes.

Sea-ice freeboard or thickness? Design choices in the context of data assimilation in the coupled numerical prediction system EC-Earth3 for seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Massonnet ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Ed Blockley ◽  
Pablo Ortega Montilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>It is well established that winter and spring Arctic sea-ice thickness anomalies are a key source of predictability for late summer sea-ice concentration. While numerical general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly used to perform seasonal predictions, they are not systematically taking advantage of the wealth of polar observations available. Data assimilation, the study of how to constrain GCMs to produce a physically consistent state given observations and their uncertainties, remains, therefore, an active area of research in the field of seasonal prediction. With the recent advent of satellite laser and radar altimetry, large-scale estimates of sea-ice thickness have become available for data assimilation in GCMs. However, the sea-ice thickness is never directly observed by altimeters, but rather deduced from the measured sea-ice freeboard (the height of the emerged part of the sea ice floe) based on several assumptions like the depth of snow on sea ice and its density, which are both often poorly estimated. Thus, observed sea-ice thickness estimates are potentially less reliable than sea-ice freeboard estimates. Here, using the EC-Earth3 coupled forecasting system and an ensemble Kalman filter, we perform a set of sensitivity tests to answer the following questions: (1) Does the assimilation of late spring observed sea-ice freeboard or thickness information yield more skilful predictions than no assimilation at all? (2) Should the sea-ice freeboard assimilation be preferred over sea-ice thickness assimilation? (3) Does the assimilation of observed sea-ice concentration provide further constraints on the prediction? We address these questions in the context of a realistic test case, the prediction of 2012 summer conditions, which led to the all-time record low in Arctic sea-ice extent. We finally formulate a set of recommendations for practitioners and future users of sea ice observations in the context of seasonal prediction.</p>

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