scholarly journals Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979–2013 despite the Arctic warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lang ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. With the help of the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (MARERA) and the MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) global model (MARMIROC5) from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total surface mass balance (SMB) over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1) with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt) but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northwesterly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a south–southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing record melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1) and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2) over 1980–2005.

scholarly journals Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979–2013 despite the Arctic warming

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 4497-4543 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lang ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Recent Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. With the help of the regional climate model MAR forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (MARERA) and the MIROC5 global model (MARMIROC5) from the CMIP5 database, we have modelled the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard at a 10 km resolution over 1979–2013. The integrated total SMB over Svalbard modelled by MARERA is negative (−1.6 Gt yr−1) with a large interannual variability (7.1 Gt) but, unlike over Greenland, there has been no acceleration of the surface melt over the past 35 years because of the recent change in atmospheric circulation bringing northerly flows in summer over Svalbard, contrasting the recent observed Arctic warming. However, in 2013, the atmospheric circulation changed to a southwesterly flow over Svalbard causing a record of melt, SMB (−20.4 Gt yr−1) and summer temperature. MIROC5 is significantly colder than ERA-Interim over 1980–2005 but MARMIROC5 is able to improve the near-surface MIROC5 results by simulating not significant SMB differences with MARERA over 1980–2005. On the other hand, MIROC5 does not represent the recent atmospheric circulation shift in summer and induces in MARMIROC5 a significant trend of decreasing SMB (−0.6 Gt yr−2) over 1980–2005.

scholarly journals Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2, part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Melchior van Wessem ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noël ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
Gerit Birnbaum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Surface Climate

Abstract. We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 (1979–2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior, and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula (AP)) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, that now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution (~ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution dataset of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

scholarly journals Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 469-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
B. Franco ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

scholarly journals Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adélie Land, East Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3487-3510
Author(s):  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Louis Le Toumelin ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Drifting Snow

Abstract. Drifting snow, or the wind-driven transport of snow particles originating from clouds and the surface below and above 2 m above ground and their concurrent sublimation, is a poorly documented process on the Antarctic ice sheet, which is inherently lacking in most climate models. Since drifting snow mostly results from erosion of surface particles, a comprehensive evaluation of this process in climate models requires a concurrent assessment of simulated drifting-snow transport and the surface mass balance (SMB). In this paper a new version of the drifting-snow scheme currently embedded in the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) is extensively described. Several important modifications relative to previous version have been implemented and include notably a parameterization for drifting-snow compaction of the uppermost snowpack layer, differentiated snow density at deposition between precipitation and drifting snow, and a rewrite of the threshold friction velocity above which snow erosion initiates. Model results at high resolution (10 km) over Adélie Land, East Antarctica, for the period 2004–2018 are presented and evaluated against available near-surface meteorological observations at half-hourly resolution and annual SMB estimates. The evaluation demonstrates that MAR resolves the local drifting-snow frequency and transport up to the scale of the drifting-snow event and captures the resulting observed climate and SMB variability, suggesting that this model version can be used for continent-wide applications.

scholarly journals Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 4939-4976 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tedesco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
T. Mote ◽  
J. Wahr ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ~ 97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ~ two months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ~ 3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance was ~ 3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g. albedo) and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks, less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated should the trend in NAO summer values continue.

scholarly journals Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lang ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
The North

Abstract. We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070–2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from downscaled EC-Earth models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fredrik Boberg ◽  
Ruth Mottram ◽  
Nicolaj Hansen ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Peter L. Langen
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. The future rates of ice sheet melt in Greenland and Antarctica are an important factor when making estimates of the likely rate of sea level rise. Global climate models that took part in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have generally been unable to replicate observed rates of ice sheet melt. With the advent of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with a general increase in the equilibrium climate sensitivity, we here compare two versions of the global climate model EC-Earth using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 downscaling EC-Earth for Greenland and Antarctica. One version (v2) of EC-Earth is taken from CMIP5 for the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario and the other (v3) from CMIP6 for the comparable high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) scenario). For Greenland, we downscale the two versions of EC-Earth for the historical period 1991–2010 and for the scenario period 2081–2100. For Antarctica, the periods are 1971–2000 and 2071–2100, respectively. For the Greenland Ice Sheet, we find that the mean change in temperature is 5.9 °C when downscaling EC-Earth v2 and 6.8 °C when downscaling EC-Earth v3. Corresponding values for Antarctica are 4.1 °C for v2 and 4.8 °C for v3. The mean change in surface mass balance at the end of the century under these high emissions scenarios is found to be −210 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1150 Gt yr−1 (v3) for Greenland and 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3) for Antarctica. These distinct differences in temperature change and particularly surface mass balance change are a result of the higher equilibrium climate sensitivity in EC-Earth v3 (4.3 K) compared with 3.3 K in EC-Earth v2 and the differences in greenhouse gas concentrations between the RCP8.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

scholarly journals Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2, Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brice Noël ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Jan Melchior van Wessem ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
Dirk van As ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
New Model ◽  
Model Version

Abstract. We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958–2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation; snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves SMB patterns than the previous model version, notably in the northeast, southeast, and along the K-transect in southwestern Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

scholarly journals Performance of MAR (v3.11) in simulating the drifting-snow climate and surface mass balance of Adelie Land, East Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Louis Le Toumelin ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Drifting Snow

Abstract. Drifting snow, or the wind-driven transport of snow particles and their concurrent sublimation, is a poorly documented process on the Antarctic ice sheet, inherently lacking in most climate models. Since drifting snow mostly results from erosion of surface particles, a comprehensive evaluation of this process in climate models requires a concurrent assessment of simulated transport and the surface mass balance (SMB). In this paper a new version of the drifting-snow scheme currently embedded in the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) is extensively described. Several important modifications relative to previous version have been implemented and include notably a parameterisation for drifting-snow compaction, differentiated snow density at deposition between precipitation and drifting snow, and a rewriting of the threshold friction velocity for snow erosion. Model results at high resolution (10 km) over Adelie Land, East Antarctica, for the period 2004–2018 are presented and evaluated against available near-surface meteorological observations at half-hourly resolution and annual SMB estimates. MAR resolves the local drifting-snow frequency and transport up the scale of the drifting-snow event and captures the resulting observed climate and SMB variability. This suggests that this model version can be used for continent-wide applications, and that the approach of drifting-snow physics as proposed in MAR can serve as a basis for implementation in earth system models.

scholarly journals Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 811-831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brice Noël ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
J. Melchior van Wessem ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
Dirk van As ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
New Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
North East

Abstract. We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958–2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

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