North Sea region energy system towards  2050: integrated offshore grid and sector  coupling drive offshore wind power installations

Abstract. This paper analyses several energy system scenarios towards 2050 for the North Sea region. With a focus on offshore wind power, the impacts of meshed offshore grid and sector coupling are studied. First, a project-based scenario, where each offshore wind power plant is connected individually to the onshore power system, is compared to a meshed grid scenario. Both the amount of offshore wind power installed and the level of curtailment are assessed. Then, these results are compared to a scenario with sector coupling included. The results show that while the introduction of a meshed grid can increase the amount of offshore wind power installed towards 2050, sector coupling is expected to be a more important driver for increasing offshore wind power installations. In addition, sector coupling can significantly decrease the level of offshore wind curtailment.

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North Sea region energy system towards 2050: integrated offshore grid and sector coupling drive offshore wind installations

10.5194/wes-2020-60 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Koivisto ◽

Juan Gea-Bermúdez ◽

Polyneikis Kanellas ◽

Kauhshik Das ◽

Poul Sørensen

Keyword(s):

Power Plant ◽

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Energy System ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Wind Power Plant ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Wind Curtailment

Abstract. This paper analyses several energy system scenarios towards 2050 for the North Sea region. With focus on offshore wind power, the impacts of meshed offshore grid and sector coupling are studied. First, a project-based scenario, where each offshore wind power plant is connected individually to onshore, is compared to a meshed grid scenario. Both the amount of offshore wind installed and the level of curtailment are assessed. Then, these results are compared to a scenario with sector coupling included. The results show that while the introduction of a meshed grid can increase the amount of offshore wind installed towards 2050, sector coupling is expected to be a more important driver for increasing offshore wind installations. In addition, sector coupling can significantly decrease the level of offshore wind curtailment.

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Multi-decadal offshore wind power variability can be mitigated through optimized European allocation

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9538 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Charlotte Neubacher ◽

Jan Wohland ◽

Dirk Witthaut

Keyword(s):

Power Generation ◽

Time Series ◽

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Wind Power Generation ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

Wind power generation is a promising technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. &#160;In the recent years, the global offshore wind market grew around 30% per year but the full potential of this technology is still not fully exploited. In fact, offshore wind power has the potential to generate more than the worldwide energy demand of today. The high variability of wind on many different timescales does, however, pose serious technical challenges for system integration and system security. &#160;With a few exceptions, little focus has been given to multi-decadal variability. Our research therefore focuses on timescales exceeding ten years.Based on detrended wind data from the coupled centennial reanalysis CERA-20C, we calculate long-term offshore wind power generation time series across Europe and analyze their variability with a focus on the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Our approach is based on two independent spectral analysis methods, namely power spectral density and singular spectrum analysis. The latter is particularly well suited for relatively short and noisy time series. In both methods an AR(1)-process is considered as a realistic model for the noisy background. The analysis is complemented by computing the 20yr running mean to also gain insight into long term developments and quantify benefits of large-scale balancing.We find strong indications for two significant multidecadal modes, which appear consistently independent of the statistical method and at all locations subject to our investigation. Moreover, we reveal potential to mitigate multidecadal offshore wind power generation variability via spatial balancing in Europe. In particular, optimized allocations off the Portuguese coast and in the North Sea allow for considerably more stable wind power generation on multi-decadal time scales.

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Production and Cost Assessment of Offshore Wind Power in the North Sea

Journal of Physics Conference Series ◽

10.1088/1742-6596/1934/1/012019 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1934 (1) ◽

pp. 012019

Author(s):

J N Sørensen ◽

G C Larsen ◽

A Cazin-Bourguignon

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Cost Assessment ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

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The expansion of offshore wind power in the North Sea: A strategic opportunity for the European Union

ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT ◽

10.3280/efe2018-001001 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 5-28 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michel Cruciani

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

The European Union ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

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Norwegian hindcast archive (NORA3) – A validation of offshore wind resources in the North Sea and Norwegian Sea

10.5194/wes-2021-22 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ida Marie Solbrekke ◽

Asgeir Sorteberg ◽

Hilde Haakenstad

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Power Production ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Norwegian Sea ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

Wind Speeds ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Wind Events ◽

Simulated Wind

Abstract. A new high-resolution (3 km) numerical mesoscale weather simulation spanning the period 2004–2018 is validated for offshore wind power purposes for the North Sea and Norwegian Sea. The NORwegian hindcast Archive (NORA3) was created by dynamical downscaling, forced with state-of-the-art hourly atmospheric reanalysis as boundary conditions. A validation of the simulated wind climatology has been carried out to determine the ability of NORA3 to act as a tool for planning future offshore wind power installations. Special emphasis is placed on evaluating offshore wind power-related metrics and the impact of simulated wind speed deviations on the estimated wind power and the related variability. The general conclusion of the validation is that the NORA3 data is rather well suited for wind power estimates, but gives slightly conservative estimates on the offshore wind metrics. Wind speeds are typically 5 % (0.5 ms−1) lower than observed wind speeds, giving an underestimation of offshore wind power of 10 %–20 % (equivalent to an underestimation of 3 percentage point in the capacity factor), for a selected turbine type and hub height. The model is biased towards lower wind power estimates because of overestimation of the frequency of low-speed wind events (< 10 ms−1) and underestimation of high-speed wind events (> 10 ms−1). The hourly wind speed and wind power variability are slightly underestimated in NORA3. However, the number of hours with zero power production (around 12 % of the time) is fairly well captured, while the duration of each of these events is slightly overestimated, leading to 25-year return values for zero-power duration being too high for four of the six sites. The model is relatively good at capturing spatial co-variability in hourly wind power production among the sites. However, the observed decorrelation length was estimated to be 432 km, whereas the model-based length was 19 % longer.

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Towards the North Sea wind power revolution

10.5194/wes-2018-53 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Jens N. Sørensen ◽

Gunner C. Larsen

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Wind Turbines ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Cost Model ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

The Cost

Abstract. The present work assesses the potential of a massive exploitation of offshore wind power in the North Sea by combining a meteorological model with a cost model that includes a bathymetric analysis of the water depth of the North Sea. The overall objective is to assess if the wind power in the North Sea can deliver the total consumption of electricity in Europe and to what prize as compared to conventional onshore wind energy. The meteorological model is based on the assumption that the exploited area is so large, that the wind field between the turbines is in equilibrium with the atmospheric boundary layer. This makes it possible to use momentum analysis to determine the mutual influence between the atmospheric boundary layer and the wind farm, with the wind farm represented by an average horizontal force component corresponding to the thrust. The cost model includes expressions for the most essential wind farm cost elements, such as costs of wind turbines, support structures, cables and electrical substations, as well as operation and maintenance as function of rotor size, interspatial distance between the turbines, and water depth. The numbers used in the cost model are based on previous experience from offshore wind farms, and is therefore somewhat conservative. The analysis shows that the lowest energy cost is obtained for a configuration of large wind turbines erected with an interspatial distance of about eight rotor diameters. A part of the analysis is devoted to assessing the relative costs of the various elements of the cost model in order to determine the components with the largest potential for reducing the cost price. As an overall finding, it is shown that the power demand of Europe, which is 0.4 TW or about 3500 TWh/year, can be fulfilled by exploiting an area of 190.000 km2, corresponding to about 1/3 of the North Sea, with 100.000 wind turbines of generator size 13 MW on water depths up to 45 m at a cost price of about 7.5 €cents/kWh.

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Multi-decadal offshore wind power variability can be mitigated through optimized European allocation

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 54 ◽

pp. 205-215

Author(s):

Charlotte Neubacher ◽

Dirk Witthaut ◽

Jan Wohland

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

North Sea ◽

Decadal Variability ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Energy System ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

System Transformation ◽

Offshore Wind Power

Abstract. Wind power is a vital ingredient for energy system transformation in line with the Paris Agreement. Limited land availability for onshore wind parks and higher wind speeds over sea make offshore wind energy increasingly attractive. While wind variability on different timescales poses challenges for planning and system integration, little focus has been given to multi-decadal variability. Our research therefore focuses on the characteristics of wind power on timescales exceeding ten years. Based on detrended wind data from the coupled centennial reanalysis CERA-20C, we calculate European long-term offshore wind power potential and analyze its variability focusing on three locations with distinct climatic conditions: the German North Sea, the Greek Mediterranean and the Portuguese Atlantic coast. We find strong indications for two significant multi-decadal modes that are identified consistently using two independent spectral analysis methods and in the 20-year running mean time series. In winter, the long-term evolution of wind power and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are directly linked in Germany and Portugal. While German North Sea wind power is positively correlated with the NAO (r=0.82), Portuguese Atlantic coast generation is anti-correlated with the NAO (r=-0.91). We evaluate the corresponding potential for spatial balancing in Europe and report substantial benefits from European cooperation. In particular, optimized allocations off the Portuguese Atlantic coast and in the German North Sea allow to reduce multi-decadal generation variance by a factor of 3–10 compared with country-level approaches.

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The 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) – a validation of offshore wind resources in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea

Wind Energy Science ◽

10.5194/wes-6-1501-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 1501-1519

Author(s):

Ida Marie Solbrekke ◽

Asgeir Sorteberg ◽

Hilde Haakenstad

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Wind Power ◽

Offshore Wind ◽

Data Set ◽

Norwegian Sea ◽

Offshore Wind Power ◽

Wind Speeds ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Simulated Wind

Abstract. We validate a new high-resolution (3 km) numerical mesoscale weather simulation for offshore wind power purposes for the time period 2004–2016 for the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) is a dynamically downscaled data set, forced with state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis as boundary conditions. We conduct an in-depth validation of the simulated wind climatology towards the observed wind climatology to determine whether NORA3 can serve as a wind resource data set in the planning phase of future offshore wind power installations. We place special emphasis on evaluating offshore wind-power-related metrics and the impact of simulated wind speed deviations on the estimated wind power and the related variability. We conclude that the NORA3 data are well suited for wind power estimates but give slightly conservative estimates of the offshore wind metrics. In other words, wind speeds in NORA3 are typically 5 % (0.5 m s−1) lower than observed wind speeds, giving an underestimation of offshore wind power of 10 %–20 % (equivalent to an underestimation of 3 percentage points in the capacity factor) for a selected turbine type and hub height. The model is biased towards lower wind power estimates due to overestimation of the wind speed events below typical wind speed limits of rated wind power (u<11–13 m s−1) and underestimation of high-wind-speed events (u>11–13 m s−1). The hourly wind speed and wind power variability are slightly underestimated in NORA3. However, the number of hours with zero power production caused by the wind conditions (around 12 % of the time) is well captured, while the duration of each of these events is slightly overestimated, leading to 25-year return values for zero-power duration being too high for the majority of the sites. The model performs well in capturing spatial co-variability in hourly wind power production, with only small deviations in the spatial correlation coefficients among the sites. We estimate the observation-based decorrelation length to be 425.3 km, whereas the model-based length is 19 % longer.

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