Tuning and Development of an Individual-Based Model of the Herring Spawning Migration

Norwegian spring spawning herring is a migratory pelagic fish stock that seasonally navigates between distant locations in the Norwegian Sea. The spawning migration takes place between late winter and early spring. In this article, we present an individual-based model that simulated the spawning migration, which was tuned and validated against observation data. Individuals were modelled on a continuous grid coupled to a physical oceanographic model. We explore the development of individual model states in relation to local environmental conditions and predict the distribution and abundance of individuals in the Norwegian Sea for selected years (2015–2020). Individuals moved position mainly according to the prevailing coastal current. A tuning procedure was used to minimize the deviations between model and survey estimates at specific time stamps. Furthermore, 4 separate scenarios were simulated to ascertain the sensitivity of the model to initial conditions. Subsequently, one scenario was evaluated and compared with catch data in 5 day periods within the model time frame. Agreement between model and catch data varies throughout the season and between years. Regardless, emergent properties of the migration are identifiable that match observations, particularly migration trajectories that run perpendicular to deep bathymetry and counter the prevailing current. The model developed is efficient to implement and can be extended to generate multiple realizations of the migration path. This model, in combination with various sources of fisheries-dependent data, can be applied to improve real-time estimates of fish distributions.

Spatial Distribution of Different Age Groups of Herring in Norwegian Sea, May 1996–2020

The commercially important Norwegian spring spawning herring is characterized by its extensive annual migrations and, on a decadal timescale, large shifts in migration patterns. These changes are not well understood, but have previously been linked to temperature, food availability, and size and age composition of the stock. Acoustic and trawl data from the International Ecosystem Surveys in the Nordic Seas, carried out annually in May since 1996, were used to analyze the spatial distribution of herring in the period 1996–2020. The dataset was disaggregated into age classes, and information about where the different age classes feed in May was derived. The analysis of herring feeding patterns in May confirms that the youngest age classes are generally found close to the Norwegian shelf, whereas the older age classes display larger variations in where they are distributed. During the period 1996–1998, the oldest age classes were found in the central and western Norwegian Sea. During the period 1999–2004, the whole stock migrated north after spawning, leaving the regions in the southern Norwegian Sea void of herring. Since 2005 the oldest herring has again congregated in the south-western Norwegian Sea, in the frontal zone between the cooler East Icelandic water and the warmer Atlantic water. There was a significant positive relationship both between stock size and distribution area and between stock size and density. Moreover, it is likely that the strong year classes 1991/1992 and 1998/1999, which were relatively old when the respective changes in migration patterns occurred, were important contributors to the changes observed in 1999 and 2005, respectively.

HUMAN FACTORS IN SHIP DESIGN AND OPERATION: A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE THEORETICAL CONSTRUCT

This technical note presents an analysis of the underlying factors of human factors in ship design based on questionnaires distributed on two offshore supply vessels operating in the Norwegian Sea. The concept of human factors in ship design is still evolving. The purpose of this paper is to present a preliminary model of the human factors construct by using a factor analysis method. The results confirm the existence of controllability, workability and habitability as the principal factors of human factors in ship design. Three other factors that emerged are cargo facilities, reliability, automation and maintainability (RAM) and interfacing complexity. Bridging variables found between these factors include elements such as safety, manoeuvring, engine room and bridge design. A preliminary model of how the components or parts relate to human factors in ship design and operation is developed. The model also indicates the parties who are responsible for the various aspects of ship design from a human factors perspective.

HUMAN FACTORS ON OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS IN THE NORWEGIAN SEA – AN EXPLANATORY SURVEY

A survey of human factors on two state-of-the-art offshore supply vessels (OSVs) operating in the Norwegian Sea was performed by means of questionnaires. The purpose of the study was to examine whether human factors had been adequately addressed in ship design, how they were regarded by the crews, and whether design decisions were believed to have an effect on incidents on-board. The concept of human factors in ship design was operationalised into eight dimensions: habitability, workability, controllability, maintainability, manoeuvrability, survivability, occupational health and safety (OHS), and system safety. Inferential statistics were applied in order to draw conclusions, including means comparisons and multivariate regression analyses. The results show that human factors were given significant importance in the ship design. The level of accomplishment of human factors differs from one dimension to another. The highest satisfactory dimension was OHS and maintainability was the lowest, but still considered adequate. Design is revealed to have an impact on human factor ratings. Further, OSV design and human factor ratings are identified as having effects on particular incidents on board.

The 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) – a validation of offshore wind resources in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea

We validate a new high-resolution (3 km) numerical mesoscale weather simulation for offshore wind power purposes for the time period 2004–2016 for the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) is a dynamically downscaled data set, forced with state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis as boundary conditions. We conduct an in-depth validation of the simulated wind climatology towards the observed wind climatology to determine whether NORA3 can serve as a wind resource data set in the planning phase of future offshore wind power installations. We place special emphasis on evaluating offshore wind-power-related metrics and the impact of simulated wind speed deviations on the estimated wind power and the related variability. We conclude that the NORA3 data are well suited for wind power estimates but give slightly conservative estimates of the offshore wind metrics. In other words, wind speeds in NORA3 are typically 5 % (0.5 m s−1) lower than observed wind speeds, giving an underestimation of offshore wind power of 10 %–20 % (equivalent to an underestimation of 3 percentage points in the capacity factor) for a selected turbine type and hub height. The model is biased towards lower wind power estimates due to overestimation of the wind speed events below typical wind speed limits of rated wind power (u<11–13 m s−1) and underestimation of high-wind-speed events (u>11–13 m s−1). The hourly wind speed and wind power variability are slightly underestimated in NORA3. However, the number of hours with zero power production caused by the wind conditions (around 12 % of the time) is well captured, while the duration of each of these events is slightly overestimated, leading to 25-year return values for zero-power duration being too high for the majority of the sites. The model performs well in capturing spatial co-variability in hourly wind power production, with only small deviations in the spatial correlation coefficients among the sites. We estimate the observation-based decorrelation length to be 425.3 km, whereas the model-based length is 19 % longer.

Gravity-Fed Riserless Coiled Tubing Operations in Ultra-Deepwater: A Milestone Achievement for Riserless Intervention and Plug and Abandonment

In a continuous effort to reduce cost and improve efficiency, the Oil and Gas industry has been trying for the last 10 years to develop methods to perform subsea Coiled Tubing (CT) operations from a vessel and without a riser. In September 2020 a large campaign of Riserless Coiled Tubing (RLCT) coring was successfully executed in the Norwegian Sea, on the Mohns Ridge, approximately 330 nautical miles from the coast. The campaign was performed from a small Anchor Handler Tug Supply vessel, the Island Valiant. A total of 14 open water gravity-fed RLCT runs were executed in water depths between 2780 and 3085 m. The system performed extremely well and proved to be very robust, efficient and effective for these innovative operations. This was the first time that RLCT coring operations were completed without the use of a subsea injector, in the so-called gravity-fed mode, and in such ultra-deep water. This paper describes the project in detail, including the system setup used, a summary of the operations and the actual results achieved, before discussing future improvements and applications of the RLCT technology.

Stratigraphic and sedimentological characterisation of the Late Cretaceous post-rift intra Lange Sandstones of the Gimsan Basin and Grinda Graben (Halten Terrace, Norwegian Sea)

Deep-marine gravity-driven deposits represent one of the more investigated depositional systems due to their potential interest as target for exploration and carbon capture and storage activities, as well as an important record of the depositional history of a basin through time. Although the Halten Terrace (Norwegian Sea) is one of the main successful exploration areas, we still have poor understanding of the post-rift Cretaceous interval. Here, 3D seismic reflection and borehole data are integrated to investigate the stratigraphic distribution and sedimentological characteristics of the Cenomanian-Turonian intra Lange Sandstones in the Gimsan Basin and Grinda Graben. The Lange Formation records the deposition in a deep-marine environment of a thousand meter thick shale unit punctuated by tens of meters thick gravity-driven coarse-grained sandstone intervals sourced from the Norwegian mainland. The presence of gravity-driven deposits and the deep-marine setting is supported by seismic interpretation, architectural elements and the facies analysis of cored material acquired within the studied stratigraphic interval. Borehole data indicate the presence of both turbidites and hybrid-event beds rich in mud content. The results of this study have implications for the understanding of the distribution and reservoir potentiality of the Late Cretaceous Lange Formation in the Halten Terrace.

Twenty-One Years of Phytoplankton Bloom Phenology in the Barents, Norwegian, and North Seas

Phytoplankton blooms provide biomass to the marine trophic web, contribute to the carbon removal from the atmosphere and can be deadly when associated with harmful species. This points to the need to understand the phenology of the blooms in the Barents, Norwegian, and North seas. We use satellite chlorophyll-a from 2000 to 2020 to assess robust climatological and the interannual trends of spring and summer blooms onset, peak day, duration and intensity. Further, we also correlate the interannual variability of the blooms with mixed layer depth (MLD), sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed and suspended particulate matter (SPM) retrieved from models and remote sensing. The climatological spring blooms start on March 10th and end on June 19th. The climatological summer blooms begin on July 13th and end on September 17th. In the Barents Sea, years of shallower mixed layer (ML) driven by both calm waters and higher freshwaters input keeps the phytoplankton in the euphotic zone, causing the spring bloom to start earlier and reach higher biomass but end sooner due to the lack of nutrients upwelling from the deep. In the Norwegian Sea, a correlation between SST and the spring blooms is found. Here, warmer waters are correlated to earlier and stronger blooms in most regions but with later and weaker blooms in the eastern Norwegian Sea. In the North Sea, years of shallower ML reduces the phytoplankton sinking below the euphotic zone and limits the SPM increase from the bed shear stress, creating an ideal environment of stratified and clear waters to develop stronger spring blooms. Last, the summer blooms onset, peak day and duration have been rapidly delaying at a rate of 1.25-day year–1, but with inconclusive causes based on the parameters assessed in this study.