scholarly journals FOREST FIRE RISK FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF SANTA CATARINA DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGES

FLORESTA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 427
Author(s):  
Tatiane Lima Ho ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Alexandre França Tetto
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Forest Fire Risk

Forest plays a fundamental role in the environmental balance, mainly in the regulation of the climate, main variable that interferes in the propagation of fire in a forest fire. Climate change is caused by astronomic, natural and anthropogenic factors, the latter being primarily responsible for the change in the fire regime. There is a projection that there will be climate changes over the next 100 years, which will result in an impact on forest ecosystems. Therefore, this study aimed to was to determine, by decade, the Forest Fire Risk Zone Mapping (FFRZM) for the state of Santa Catarina by considering the average of two scenarios for the increase of the temperature of the Earth until 2100 (1 °C for the best-case scenario and 2.2 ºC for the worst-case scenario) that were foreseen by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013. For this purpose, eight variables classified according to fire risk and integrated in a weighting model were used. The results showed that, for both scenarios, there will be an increase of 11.48% in the best-case scenario and 10.83% in the worst-case scenario in the extreme risk class from 2010 to 2100. For the low risk one, we estimate that there will be an increase of 8.13% in the best-case scenario and 11.62% in the worst-case scenario. The study reveals that if there is an increase in the temperature of the Earth, there may be an increase in the number of forest fire occurrences in the state of Santa Catarina for both scenarios. Thus, it is necessary a greater action on the prevention and combat in the areas defined as extreme risk.Keywords: fuel load, Monte Alegre Formula, topography, population density, road system. ResumoPrevisão do risco de incêndios florestais para o estado de Santa Catarina em função das mudanças climáticas A floresta desenvolve um papel fundamental no equilíbrio ambiental, principalmente, na regulação do clima, variável principal que interfere na propagação do fogo em um incêndio florestal. As mudanças climáticas são causadas por fatores astronômicos, naturais e antropogênicos, sendo este último o principal responsável pela mudança no regime do fogo. Há uma projeção de que haverá alterações climáticas nos próximos 100 anos, o que ocasionará um impacto nos ecossistemas florestais. O objetivo desse trabalho foi determinar, por decênio, o Zoneamento de Risco de Incêndios Florestais (ZRIF) para o estado de Santa Catarina, considerando a média de dois cenários de aumento da temperatura da Terra até 2100 (1 ºC para o melhor cenário e 2,2 ºC para o pior cenário) previstos pelo Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) em 2013. Para isso, foram utilizadas oito variáveis, que foram classificadas em função do risco de incêndios e integradas em um modelo de ponderação. Os resultados mostraram que, para ambos os cenários, haverá um aumento na classe de risco extremo de 11,48% no melhor cenário e de 10,83% no pior cenário no período de 2010 a 2100. Para o risco baixo, estima-se que haverá um aumento de 8,13% no melhor cenário e de 11,62% no pior cenário. Conclui-se que, caso haja   aumento na temperatura da Terra, poderá haver um aumento no número de   ocorrências de incêndios florestais no estado de Santa Catarina para ambos os   cenários,  Sendo necessária uma maior ação de prevenção e combate nas áreas   definidas como risco extremo.Palavras-chave: material   combustível, Fórmula de Monte Alegre, topografia, densidade demográfica,   sistema viário.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

Legal adaptability in Elbonia

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias M. Siems
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Data ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
The Law

Law has to be able to respond to new or changing circumstances. This ‘legal adaptability’ may be more important than details in the ‘law as such’. However, its meaning and its significance have not yet been analysed in detail. Thus, legal adaptability will be examined in this article. It looks at the worst case scenario by discussing a fictional country (Elbonia) where legal adaptability is poor, and identifies the main adaptability criteria. By using empirical data from the three Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), it also provides an example of how to ascertain the degree of legal adaptability of particular countries.

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