scholarly journals On Sequential Learning for Parameter Estimation in Particle Algorithms for State-Space Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Chunlin Ji
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Blind Deconvolution ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
The State ◽  
State Space Models ◽  
Sequential Learning ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Deconvolution Problem

Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo, have been ubiquitous for Bayesian inference for state-space models, particulary when dealing with nonlinear non-Gaussian scenarios. However, in many practical situations, the state-space model contains unknown model parameters that need to be estimated simultaneously with the state. In this paper, We discuss a sequential analysis for combined parameter and state estimation. An online learning method is proposed to approach the distribution of the model parameter by tuning a flexible proposal mixture distribution to minimize their Kullback-Leibler divergence. We derive the sequential learning method by using a truncated Dirichlet processes normal mixture and present a general algorithm under a framework of the auxiliary particle filtering. The proposed algorithm is verified in a blind deconvolution problem, which is a typical state-space model with unknown model parameters. Furthermore, in a more challenging application that we call meta-modulation, which is a more complex blind deconvolution problem with sophisticated system evolution equations, the proposed method performs satisfactorily and achieves an exciting result for high efficiency communication.

scholarly journals A review of Bayesian state-space modelling of capture–recapture–recovery data

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth King
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
The State ◽  
State Space Models ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Space Model ◽  
System Process ◽  
Observation Process ◽  
Capture Recapture

Traditionally, state-space models are fitted to data where there is uncertainty in the observation or measurement of the system. State-space models are partitioned into an underlying system process describing the transitions of the true states of the system over time and the observation process linking the observations of the system to the true states. Open population capture–recapture–recovery data can be modelled in this framework by regarding the system process as the state of each individual observed within the study in terms of being alive or dead, and the observation process the recapture and/or recovery process. The traditional observation error of a state-space model is incorporated via the recapture/recovery probabilities being less than unity. The models can be fitted using a Bayesian data augmentation approach and in standard BUGS packages. Applying this state-space framework to such data permits additional complexities including individual heterogeneity to be fitted to the data at very little additional programming effort. We consider the efficiency of the state-space model fitting approach by considering a random effects model for capture–recapture data relating to dippers and compare different Bayesian model-fitting algorithms within WinBUGS.

Hydraulic-seasonal-time-based state space model for displacement monitoring of high concrete dams

2021 ◽  
pp. 014233122110183
Author(s):  
Shaowei Wang ◽  
Cong Xu ◽  
Chongshi Gu ◽  
Huaizhi Su ◽  
Bangbin Wu
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Elastic Deformation ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Time Effect ◽  
The State ◽  
Arch Dam ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Concrete Dams ◽  
Space Model

Displacement is the most intuitive reflection of the comprehensive behavior of concrete dams, especially the time effect displacement, which is a key index for the evaluation of the structural behavior and health status of a dam in long-term service. The main purpose of this paper is to establish a state space model for separating causal components from the measured dam displacement. This approach is conducted by initially proposing two equations, which are the state and observation equations, and model parameters are then optimized by the Kalman filter algorithm. The state equation is derived according to the creep deformation of dam concrete and foundation rock and is used to preliminarily predict the dam time effect displacement. Considering the generally recognized three components of dam displacement, the hydraulic-seasonal-time (HST) model is used to establish the observation equation, which is used to update the time effect displacement. The efficiency and rationality of the established state space model is verified by an engineering example. The results show that the hydraulic component separated by the state space model only contains the instantaneous elastic hydraulic deformation, while the hysteretic elastic hydraulic deformation is divided into the time effect component. The inverted elastic modulus of dam body concrete is an instantaneous value for the state space model but a comprehensive reflection of the instantaneous and hysteretic elastic deformation ability for the HST model, where the hysteretic elastic deformation is a part of the hydraulic component. For the Xiaowan arch dam, the inverted values are 42.9 and 36.7 GPa for the state space model and HST model, respectively. The proposed state space model is useful to improve the interpretation ability of the separated displacement components of concrete dams.

scholarly journals Structural Analysis and Control of a Model of Two-Site Electricity and Heat Supply

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hikaru Hoshino ◽  
Yoshihiko Susuki ◽  
T. John Koo ◽  
Takashi Hikihara
Keyword(s):  
Control Problem ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
State Space ◽  
Heat Supply ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Energy Flows

This paper introduces a control problem of regulation of energy flows in a two-site electricity and heat supply system, where two combined heat and power (CHP) plants are interconnected via electricity and heat flows. The control problem is motivated by recent development of fast operation of CHP plants to provide ancillary services of power system on the order of tens of seconds to minutes. Due to the physical constraint that the responses of the heat subsystem are not necessary as fast as those of the electric subsystem, the target controlled state is not represented by any isolated equilibrium point, implying that stability of the system is lost in the long-term sense on the order of hours. In this paper, we first prove in the context of nonlinear control theory that the state-space model of the two-site system is nonminimum phase due to nonexistence of isolated equilibrium points of the associated zero dynamics. Instead, we locate a one-dimensional (1D) invariant manifold that represents the target controlled flows completely. Then, by utilizing a virtual output under which the state-space model becomes minimum phase, we synthesize a controller that achieves not only the regulation of energy flows in the short-term regime but also stabilization of an equilibrium point in the long-term regime. Effectiveness of the synthesized controller is established with numerical simulations with a practical set of model parameters.

Modeling of CCLP in koryo extract production

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Chol ◽  
Ri Jun Il
Keyword(s):  
Process Control ◽  
Medical Care ◽  
State Space ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Effective Components ◽  
Counter Current

Abstract The modeling of counter-current leaching plant (CCLP) in Koryo Extract Production is presented in this paper. Koryo medicine is a natural physic to be used for a diet and the medical care. The counter-current leaching method is mainly used for producing Koryo medicine. The purpose of the modeling in the previous works is to indicate the concentration distributions, and not to describe the model for the process control. In literature, there are no nearly the papers for modeling CCLP and especially not the presence of papers that have described the issue for extracting the effective components from the Koryo medicinal materials. First, this paper presents that CCLP can be shown like the equivalent process consisting of two tanks, where there is a shaking apparatus, respectively. It allows leachate to flow between two tanks. Then, this paper presents the principle model for CCLP and the state space model on based it. The accuracy of the model has been verified from experiments made at CCLP in the Koryo Extract Production at the Gang Gyi Koryo Manufacture Factory.

Outlier detection in the state space model

1994 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siddhartha Chib ◽  
Ram C. Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Outlier Detection ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Space Model

scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of Interleaved Learning and Response Bias in Behavioral Experiments

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 2516-2524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne C. Smith ◽  
Sylvia Wirth ◽  
Wendy A. Suzuki ◽  
Emery N. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
State Space ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Ideal Observer ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Behavioral Experiments ◽  
Actual Object ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Multiple Tasks

Accurate characterizations of behavior during learning experiments are essential for understanding the neural bases of learning. Whereas learning experiments often give subjects multiple tasks to learn simultaneously, most analyze subject performance separately on each individual task. This analysis strategy ignores the true interleaved presentation order of the tasks and cannot distinguish learning behavior from response preferences that may represent a subject's biases or strategies. We present a Bayesian analysis of a state-space model for characterizing simultaneous learning of multiple tasks and for assessing behavioral biases in learning experiments with interleaved task presentations. Under the Bayesian analysis the posterior probability densities of the model parameters and the learning state are computed using Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. Measures of learning, including the learning curve, the ideal observer curve, and the learning trial translate directly from our previous likelihood-based state-space model analyses. We compare the Bayesian and current likelihood–based approaches in the analysis of a simulated conditioned T-maze task and of an actual object–place association task. Modeling the interleaved learning feature of the experiments along with the animal's response sequences allows us to disambiguate actual learning from response biases. The implementation of the Bayesian analysis using the WinBUGS software provides an efficient way to test different models without developing a new algorithm for each model. The new state-space model and the Bayesian estimation procedure suggest an improved, computationally efficient approach for accurately characterizing learning in behavioral experiments.

scholarly journals Adaptive Model Predictive Vibration Control of a Cantilever Beam with Real-Time Parameter Estimation

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Takács ◽  
Tomáš Polóni ◽  
Boris Rohal’-Ilkiv
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Vibration Control ◽  
State Space ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Cantilever Beam ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Extended Kalman Filtering ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Continuous State

This paper presents an adaptive-predictive vibration control system using extended Kalman filtering for the joint estimation of system states and model parameters. A fixed-free cantilever beam equipped with piezoceramic actuators serves as a test platform to validate the proposed control strategy. Deflection readings taken at the end of the beam have been used to reconstruct the position and velocity information for a second-order state-space model. In addition to the states, the dynamic system has been augmented by the unknown model parameters: stiffness, damping constant, and a voltage/force conversion constant, characterizing the actuating effect of the piezoceramic transducers. The states and parameters of this augmented system have been estimated in real time, using the hybrid extended Kalman filter. The estimated model parameters have been applied to define the continuous state-space model of the vibrating system, which in turn is discretized for the predictive controller. The model predictive control algorithm generates state predictions and dual-mode quadratic cost prediction matrices based on the updated discrete state-space models. The resulting cost function is then minimized using quadratic programming to find the sequence of optimal but constrained control inputs. The proposed active vibration control system is implemented and evaluated experimentally to investigate the viability of the control method.

scholarly journals Evaluation of methods for spawner–recruit analysis in mixed-stock Pacific salmon fisheries

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (7) ◽  
pp. 1149-1162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Staton ◽  
Matthew J. Catalano ◽  
Brendan M. Connors ◽  
Lewis G. Coggins ◽  
Michael L. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Oncorhynchus Tshawytscha ◽  
Pacific Salmon ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
State Space Models ◽  
Space Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Salmon Fisheries ◽  
Mixed Stock

Salmon populations harvested in mixed-stock fisheries can exhibit genotypic, behavioral, and life history diversity that can lead to heterogeneity in population productivity and size. Methods to quantify this heterogeneity among populations in mixed-stock fisheries are not well-established but are critical to assessing harvest–biodiversity trade-offs when setting harvest policies. We developed an integrated, age-structured, state-space model that allows for more complete use of available data and sharing of information than simpler methods. We compared a suite of state-space models of varying structural complexity to simpler regression-based approaches and, as an example case, fitted them to data from 13 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations in the Kuskokwim drainage in western Alaska. We found biological and policy conclusions were largely consistent among state-space models but differed strongly from regression-based approaches. Simulation trials illustrated our state-space models were largely unbiased with respect to spawner–recruit parameters, abundance states, and derived biological reference points, whereas the regression-based approaches showed substantial bias. These findings suggest our state-space model shows promise for informing harvest policy evaluations of harvest–biodiversity trade-offs in mixed-stock salmon fisheries.

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