Are the odds odd? Positive return evidence in German horse race betting
2013 ◽
Vol 7
(2)
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pp. 19-32
Keyword(s):
Data Set
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The article deals with the question, if odds derived from the behavior of bettors in a pari-mutuel setting really reflect the chances of winning for a particular horse in a particular race. Using a unique data set with more than 46,000 race observations from Germany for the years 2001 to 2003 the paper presents evidence on the favorite long-shot bias, evaluates the predictive power of totalizator odds, uses a binary logistic regression model to predict probabilities of winning and finally suggests three wagering strategies that actually yield positive returns in a hold-out oriented analytical setting.
2018 ◽
Vol 48
(3)
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pp. 199-204
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2020 ◽
Vol 12
(4)
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pp. 463-476
2013 ◽
Vol 6
(1)
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pp. 121-127
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2020 ◽
Vol ahead-of-print
(ahead-of-print)
◽