Stock Price Jumps and News Sentiment: A Case of Investor Overreaction

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-37
Author(s):  
Vinay Kumar Apparaju ◽  
Ashwani Kumar ◽  
Ritu Yadav
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
Investor Behaviour ◽  
News Sentiment ◽  
The Impact

The research paper develops an understanding on how news based sentiment capture investor behaviour reflected in price jumps in stock markets. It compares the impact on two models of stock price jumps; the non-parametric model proposed by BNS and the wavelet based method. The study is also a perspective on the semi strong form of market efficiencyUsing the high frequency data from the stock and options market along with the actual high frequency news data from Bloomberg, the two alternative methodologies of jumps have been tested. In addition, options trades have been simulated to see whether profits can be earned from the news sentiment captured by jumps.Methodologically, jumps based on wavelets were found to be better related  with the news sentiment compared to the BNS method. Also,   the news sentiment based jumps were found to present opportunities in the simulated trades that could be exploited for earning profits suggesting that investors overreact.The paper uses an innovative method for computation of the news based sentiment. To the best of our knowledge, the paper is the first to evaluate jumps and news sentiment using the actual news data. A perspective on the semi strong form of market efficiency is presented, that too by departing from the event study based models. 

scholarly journals Evidence of Information Asymmetry and Herding Behaviour – The Swiss Franc Unpegging Event in Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 59-77
Author(s):  
Shruti Garg
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Short Duration ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Indian Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Financial Events ◽  
The Impact

The paper aims to find the impact of financial events that occurred in one country on another. Taking the case of the Swiss Franc Unpegging of 2015 in Switzerland, the paper observes its impact on the Indian economy. This is done by studying the information asymmetry and herding behaviour in Indian market on the day of the event. The study uses two sets of data, (i) high frequency data and (ii) 3 years index data of both countries. The Ganger Causality test has been conducted to study the cause and effect relationship between the economies, which helps determine the impact on any of the countries. The study found that herding behaviour and information asymmetry in Indian market are now linked to each other in such a way that the country is affected even if the event has not occurred in the economy itself, however, only for a short duration of time. There also seems to be a huge gap between information available amongst all investors.

scholarly journals Pairs trading with the persistence-based decomposition model

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Jonas Rende
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Pairs Trading ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
The Impact

Recently, the persistence-based decomposition (PBD) model has been introduced to the scientific community by Rende et al. (2019). It decomposes a spread time series between two securities into three components capturing infinite, finite, and no shock persistence. The authors provide empirical evidence that the model adopts well to noisy high-frequency data in terms of model fitting and prediction. We put the PBD model to test on a large-scale high-frequency pairs trading application, using SP 500 minute-by-minute data from 1998 to 2016. After accounting for execution limitations (waiting rule, volume constraints, and short-selling fees) the PBD model yields statistically significant and economically meaningful annual returns after transaction costs of 9.16 percent. These returns can only partially be explained by the exposure to common risk. In addition, the model is superior in terms of risk-return metrics. The model performs very well in bear markets. We quantify the impact of execution limitations on risk and return measures by relaxing backtesting restrictions step-by-step. If no restrictions are imposed, we find annual returns after costs of 138.6 percent.

scholarly journals Forecasting USD-BRL Currency Rate Volatility using Realized and Implied Volatilities Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 687-719
Author(s):  
Carlos Heitor Campani ◽  
Assis Gustavo da Silva Durães
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Foreign Exchange Volatility ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This article assesses the impact of exogenous variables in GARCH models, when applied to volatility forecasts for the Brazilian USD-BRL currency market. As exogenous variables, we used the realized variance, based on high frequency data, and the FXVol index, based on market implied volatility data. This is the first study to use the FXVol index and to investigate its effects on Brazilian foreign exchange volatility. The results indicate statistical significance of the superiority of the extended models when predicting volatility. We conclude that high frequency data and market implied volatility contain relevant information with respect to USD-BRL currency volatility. These find ings are relevant for hedgers, speculators and practitioners in general.

The intraday effect of nature disaster and production safety accident announcement based on high-frequency data from China’s stock markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Li ◽  
Huailin Tang ◽  
Jingchi Liao
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Safety ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Safety Accident

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intraday effect of nature disaster (external inevitable factor) and production safety accident (PSA) (internal factor regarding management level) announcement on stock price in China’s stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – Using high-frequency data, this study adopts event study method to examine the intraday abnormal returns as well as the volatility of stock price before and after the announcement of nature disaster and PSA. Findings – First, both nature disaster announcement and PSA announcement produce negative effects on stock returns. However, there are some differences in effects between the different types of announcement. Second, it is just within the event day (announcement day if trading day, otherwise the first trading day after announcement) that the volatility of stock price is distinctly increased by the two kinds of announcement. Third, there are some differences in the impacts of nature disaster announcement on firms in different industries. Finally, there are also some differences observed between the impacts of PSA announcement on chemical firms and other firms. Originality/value – It is the first time that using high-frequency data to analyze the intraday impact of nature disaster and PSA announcement on stock short price behavior. The results can help us to understand the role of market microstructure playing in the process of stock price formation, especially the stock price movements before and after disaster and accident announcement and the sensitivity to the announcement. The empirical results have important implications for investors when making trading decisions, and for market regulators when setting trading rules.

scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of Intraday Stochastic Volatility Models of High-Frequency Stock Returns with Skew Heavy-Tailed Errors

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Makoto Nakakita ◽  
Teruo Nakatsuma
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Variance Gamma

Intraday high-frequency data of stock returns exhibit not only typical characteristics (e.g., volatility clustering and the leverage effect) but also a cyclical pattern of return volatility that is known as intraday seasonality. In this paper, we extend the stochastic volatility (SV) model for application with such intraday high-frequency data and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm for Bayesian inference of the proposed model. Our modeling strategy is two-fold. First, we model the intraday seasonality of return volatility as a Bernstein polynomial and estimate it along with the stochastic volatility simultaneously. Second, we incorporate skewness and excess kurtosis of stock returns into the SV model by assuming that the error term follows a family of generalized hyperbolic distributions, including variance-gamma and Student’s t distributions. To improve efficiency of MCMC implementation, we apply an ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy (ASIS) and generalized Gibbs sampling. As a demonstration of our new method, we estimate intraday SV models with 1 min return data of a stock price index (TOPIX) and conduct model selection among various specifications with the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC). The result shows that the SV model with the skew variance-gamma error is the best among the candidates.

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