Fuzzy Delphi Technique for Forecasting and Screening Items

Author(s):  
Arash Habibi ◽  
Farzad Firouzi Jahantigh ◽  
Azam Sarafrazi
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Andrea Aria ◽  
Parivash Jafari ◽  
Maryam Behifar

Student engagement is one of the most important determinants of learning outcomes in higher education institutions. This paper focuses on impediments to student engagement. The Fuzzy Delphi technique was used to screen and elicit important impediments. Four main criteria (individual, family, institution, and environment) and Twenty three sub-criteria were selected by experts through the fuzzy Delphi technique. The fuzzy DEMATEL technique was used to determine the causal relationships among the criteria (impediments). Findings showed that institutional, environmental, and family factors were in the cause group, individual, and family factors were in the effect group. Among the 23 sub-factors, eleven factors were in the cause group and twelve factors were in the effect group. The first three influencing factors were: teachers' poor quality of teaching, inadequate facilities of classroom and institution, and non-applicable materials and curriculum. The first three influenced factors were: poor quality of the relationship between teachers and students, financial problems and high tuition fees, and decreasing the value and status of education in the society.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najmeh Fatahi Nafchi ◽  
Adeleh Asemi ◽  
Hamid Tahaei

Abstract In this research, the purpose was to design a fuzzy expert system based on fuzzy delphi method to detect and control the rice weed. The statistical population was elites and experts with regard to the science, experience and field of activity; 15 experts were selected as the sample. Two questionnaires were used to design the desired fuzzy expert: i) Fuzzy Delphi Technique Weed Detection Questionnaire, ii) Delphi Technique Weed Control Questionnaire. The design of the desired expert system was done with MATLAB software and the fuzzy logic tool box. That is, after obtaining an appropriate range of factors, through attributing the fuzzy trapezoidal membership functions to these ranges and generating the input functions, designing the rule base of this system and combining the output results of each factor, a system was designed whose input was the weed factor and the output was scores assigned to weeds. MATLAB guide was also used to design the graphical user interface. Then, for validation the designed system was tested. The answers of system and individual expert were then analyzed using paired t-test. Root Mean Square Error and Middle Absolute Value Deviation tests were used to calculate the system errors. The results were 0.12 and 0.01, respectively. This indicates that the designed fuzzy expert system has sufficient accuracy. Finally, given that all but two of the examined rules are the same as the diagnosis of an individual expert, then in 94% of the cases, the diagnosis of the system is the same as the diagnosis of an individual expert.


Author(s):  
Hasan Ali Nejad ◽  
Mohamad Ziaaddini ◽  
Amir Rajabi Behjat ◽  
Mohamad Reza Hosseinipour

Background: Outsourcing in the Ministry of Health is based on the reforming the structure of the health system and improving the quality of services. Therefore, the present study wanted to present the outsourcing model of services in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education with fuzzy Delphi technique in order to improve the quality of health services with emphasizing on hospitals. Methods: The present research in terms of purpose, data research type, implementation method, was part of the exploratory research which has been done quantitatively and qualitatively in 2021. The statistical population was the outsourcing experts for a study between 59 universities of medical sciences in the country, 50 people were selected by purposive sampling method. They were selected for interviews to collect outsourcing indicators to present a suitable model. The indicators were mined data using the information gain method by Matlab software and the indicators were prioritized according to the scores given. A questionnaire was obtained from the prioritized indicators, which were summarized in 19 dimensions, and the same experts were given to complete in 2 consecutive periods. After completing the questionnaire by experts, fuzzy Delphi method was used for final analysis. Results: According to the obtained model, 44 factors are effective in outsourcing .These factors entered the Delphi poll. During 2 stages of fuzzy Delphi, consensus was reached on all 44 indicators. And the highest degree of expertise agreement with the flexibility component and the lowest level of agreement with the component of the certificate of competency to provide services were outsourced by the company. Conclusion: According to the obtained model, various factors are effective in outsourcing services that need to be considered more in the planning of health centers, especially hospitals. According to the findings, it can be said that the related dimensions with considering the outsourcing services are specifically important .Due to the possibility of outsourcing among many health care units; it can be used for flexibility in providing services and patient satisfaction to manage health centers and hospitals.  


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1030-1038
Author(s):  
Nor Anisah Ahmad ◽  
Ridzwan Che Ros ◽  
Arasinah Kamis ◽  
Raja Nazim Raja Abdullah ◽  
Norhafillah Abdullah

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