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Author(s):  
Luisa Ferrari ◽  
Giuseppe Gerardi ◽  
Giancarlo Manzi ◽  
Alessandra Micheletti ◽  
Federica Nicolussi ◽  
...  

In this paper, we develop a forecasting model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e., EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and local newspaper websites. This data integration is needed as COVID-19 death data are not available at the NUTS-3 level from official open data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic; specifically, the number of susceptible, infected, deceased, recovered people and epidemiological parameters. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data.


Author(s):  
Siew Bee Aw ◽  
Bor Tsong Teh ◽  
Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling ◽  
Pau Chung Leng ◽  
Weng Howe Chan ◽  
...  

This paper attempts to ascertain the impacts of population density on the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Besides describing the spatio-temporal contagion risk of the virus, ultimately, it seeks to test the hypothesis that higher population density results in exacerbated COVID-19 virulence in the community. The population density of 143 districts in Malaysia, as per data from Malaysia’s 2010 population census, was plotted against cumulative COVID-19 cases and infection rates of COVID-19 cases, which were obtained from Malaysia’s Ministry of Health official website. The data of these three variables were collected between 19 January 2020 and 31 December 2020. Based on the observations, districts that have high population densities and are highly inter-connected with neighbouring districts, whether geographically, socio-economically, or infrastructurally, tend to experience spikes in COVID-19 cases within weeks of each other. Using a parametric approach of the Pearson correlation, population density was found to have a moderately strong relationship to cumulative COVID-19 cases (p-value of 0.000 and R2 of 0.415) and a weak relationship to COVID-19 infection rates (p-value of 0.005 and R2 of 0.047). Consequently, we provide several non-pharmaceutical lessons, including urban planning strategies, as passive containment measures that may better support disease interventions against future contagious diseases.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Kumar

Abstract Background: My research aimed to assess the impact of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the trends in the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the state of Bihar, India, during COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: The information on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was obtained from Health Department Bihar, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and lockdown data were obtained from online websites as well. The impact of lockdown for 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the incidence, prevalence and mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was analyzed with Microsoft office and stata 15.1 for windows (64bit) will be used with Microsoft office in next version-2 of article. Results: The findings showed that except for Incidence /100000/ new death there was a trend toward a decline, and except for Prevalence/100000/confirmed cases from beginning of pandemic all other prevalence have increased. The total and observation period mortality rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic also increased. Conclusions: The findings indicate that 15 days after the lockdown, incidence, daily cases of COVID-19 and the growth of the disease showed a declined trend, but there was no significant decline in the prevalence and mortality.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Kumar

AbstractBackground: My research aimed to assess the impact of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the trends in the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the state of Bihar, India, during COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: The information on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was obtained from Health Department Bihar, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and lockdown data were obtained from online websites as well. The impact of lockdown for 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the incidence, prevalence and mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was analyzed with Microsoft office and stata 15.1 for windows (64bit) will be used with Microsoft office in next version-2 of article.Results: The findings showed that except for Incidence /100000/ new death there was a trend toward a decline, and except for Prevalence/100000/confirmed cases from beginning of pandemic all other prevalence have increased. The total and observation period mortality rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic also increased.Conclusions: The findings indicate that 15 days after the lockdown, incidence, daily cases of COVID-19 and the growth of the disease showed a declined trend, but there was no significant decline in the prevalence and mortality.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santa García-Cisneros ◽  
Antonia Herrera-Ortiz ◽  
Maria Olamendi-Portugal ◽  
Miguel A. Sanchez-Aleman

Abstract BackgroundSyphilis is a sexually transmitted infection that is re-emerging in different parts of the world. This infection can be transmitted during pregnancy causing neonatal syphilis. The objective of the study was to determine the trend of syphilis, congenital syphilis, and mortality from congenital syphilis among the Mexican population between the years 2010-2019. MethodsWe formed databases about the incidence of syphilis, the incidence of congenital syphilis, cases of congenital syphilis, and deaths of congenital syphilis using information from the Morbidity and Mortality Yearbooks and the Bulletin of the Mexican Ministry of Health, considering age, sex, the states of Mexico, and year. The trend was analyzed using linear regression, the increase was estimated with 95% confidence intervals, and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. ResultsThe incidence of syphilis increases on average 0.336 cases/100,000, being higher among women aged 15-19 years (0.693 cases). Congenital syphilis has grown, from 62 cases in the year 2010 to 372 cases in the year 2019; the cases of congenital syphilis have relation to the increase of syphilis among women aged 20-24 years. Fifty percent of the states of Mexico without cases of congenital syphilis in 2010, but only 10% in 2018. Between the years 2010 to 2017, 62 deaths from congenital syphilis were reported. ConclusionCongenital syphilis is increasing in Mexico, as a consequence of the reemergence of syphilis among the population of reproductive age, it is necessary to attend to syphilis in various population groups.


Author(s):  
JOSEINA MOUTINHO TAVARES ◽  
Jorge Tadeu de Freitas ◽  
Anderson Silva de Oliveira ◽  
Paulo Moutinho Andrade de Souza ◽  
Walter da Silva Junior

This research aims to verify if the water heated in a surgical steel pan has metal contents since few studies are found involving this type of pot. The results have shown that only Al levels showed levels at the limit and above the values recommended by the Ministry of Health Consolidation Ordinance 5 / XX / 2017 after 40 h of discontinuous heating. This may have been caused by the pH between 4-5 of the deionized and drinking water used for heating. It is known that most metals are soluble in the acidic medium and, therefore, Al can be transferred to food. This shows that the level of salt contamination in foods heated continuously in these pans in an acid medium will most likely be significant and harmful. Thus, the intake of food prepared continuously in these pans may develop serious illnesses in people, such as Alzheimer s and Parkinson s. since metals, including Al, are cumulative in organisms and can cause pathogenic disturbances in humans


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Ekaterina A. Troshina ◽  
Evgeniya S. Senyushkina ◽  
Natalya P. Makolina ◽  
Fatima M. Abdulkhabirova ◽  
Larisa V. Nikankina ◽  
...  

Background: The article presents the results of a control and epidemiological study conducted in September 2020 by specialists of the Federal State Budgetary Institution «NMIC of Endocrinology» of the Ministry of Health of Russia, aimed at assessing the current state of iodine provision in the population of the Republic of Crimea. The study in Crimea is part of a number of activities and work carried out on behalf of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation within the framework of state assignments «Scientific assessment of the need for additional regulatory legal and other measures to eliminate iodine deficiency in pilot regions with severe iodine deficiency» and «Epidemiological and molecular-cellular characteristics of tumor, autoimmune and iodine deficiency thyropathies as a basis for prevention of complications and personalization of treatment.The data obtained reflect the state of the problem of iodine consumption on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula and indicate the relevance of the adoption of a regional preventive program aimed at eliminating iodine deficiency in the diet of the population and related diseases.Aim: Assessment of iodine supply of the population of the Republic of CrimeaMaterials and methods: The research was carried out in secondary schools of four districts of the Republic of Crimea — in the years. Simferopol, Belogorsk, Bakhchisarai and Saki.The volume of the study — 356 schoolchildren of 8-10 years old, all were completed: taking anamnesis and anthropometric parameters (height, weight), examination by an endocrinologist with palpation of the thyroid gland (thyroid gland), ultrasound examination of the thyroid gland (thyroid ultrasound), obtaining single portions of urine and samples of table salt (5-10 grams), which is used daily in the diet in their families. The measurements of the height and weight of the children by the standard method were carried out during the examination by a specialist. Thyroid ultrasound was performed in the supine position using a portable LOGIQe ultrasound machine (China) with a 10-15 MHz multifrequency linear transducer. All urine samples (n = 356) in disposable Eppendorf microtubes were immediately frozen at a temperature of minus 20-25°! for further determination of the concentration of iodine in urine using the cerium-arsenite method (based on the clinical diagnostic laboratory of the Federal State Budgetary Institution NMITs endocrinology «of the Ministry of Health of Russia). A qualitative study for the presence of potassium iodate in food table salt samples (n = 203) was carried out on site by the express method.Informed consent was obtained from all parents / guardians of children for the examination and processing of personal data. The permission of the local ethical committee of the Federal State Budgetary Institution «NMIC of Endocrinology» of the Ministry of Health of Russia was received on March 25, 2020, No. 5.Results: According to the results of a survey of 356 children of primary school age, the median concentration of iodine in urine (mCIM) is 97 pg / l and varies from 78 to 98 pg / l in the surveyed areas, the proportion of urine samples with a reduced iodine concentration was 51.2%. The share of iodized salt use in the families of schoolchildren was 12.3% (values range from 10% to 15%). The average incidence of goiter in children according to ultrasound data is 9.5% (range of values from 1.7% to 16.3%).Conclusion.The indicator of the median concentration of iodine in urine indicates an insufficient iodine supply of the population of the Republic of Crimea.The prevalence of goiter in children of primary school age according to the ultrasound examination of the thyroid gland corresponds to the mild severity of iodine deficiency in the mild degree of goiter endemic in the region.The share of households using iodized salt is extremely low and amounts to 12.3%, which does not meet the WHO recommendations for regions with natural iodine deficiency (from 90% or more).


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asharaf Abdul Salam

Abstract Saudi Arabia has been seriously affected by COVID-19 across various administrative areas. Not only the prominent cities but also upcoming future cities and small townships were affected. This research aims at an analysis of COVID-19 data published by the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia to understand effects of broader administrative areas and neighborhoods and its interaction on spread of the epidemic. This research applies a generalized linear model (3 X 3) of administrative areas (major, middle sized and others) and neighborhoods (large, medium sized, and others) on COVID-19 infected cases classifying on a monthly basis from March to November, 2020. A total of 213 neighborhoods of various categories have been affected in the country with variousfrequencies and changes, based on local demographics. More than the broader administrative areas smaller neighborhoods receive significance and thus the interaction of variables in producing the number of cases: giving lessons for policies, programs and plans of development.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 12-19
Author(s):  
O. D. Ostroumova ◽  
V. N. Butorov ◽  
N. A. Arablinsky ◽  
R. R. Romanovsky ◽  
S. V. Batyukina

Clinical practice and ongoing scientific research in recent years show the importance of the problem of multimorbidity in atrial fibrillation (AF). The prevalence of AF in the general population is 1–2%, while the frequency of its occurrence increases with age – from less than 0.5% at the age of 40–50 to 5–15% at the age of 80. Only 19.6% of patients with AF have no comorbidities, 69.3% of patients have 1 to 3 comorbidities, and 11.1% of patients with AF had 4 and more comorbidities. In patients with AF and with 4 and more comorbidities, the risk of death from all causes is almost seven times higher than in patients without comorbidities. As shown by the post hoc analysis of the ARISTOTLE study, apixaban was equally effective and safe in both patients without concomitant pathology and in muliborbid patients. The efficacy and safety of apixaban has been shown in AF and concomitant arterial hypertension, heart failure, coronary heart disease, including in patients with acute coronary syndrome, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The data of scientific research in recent years are reflected in the recommendations of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on AF (2020), which presents a separate section on the management of patients with concomitant diseases. It is emphasized that apixaban has shown its superiority over warfarin and other direct oral anticoagulants in terms of efficacy and safety, both in isolated AF and in patients with concomitant diseases, which makes its choice preferable in the treatment of multimirbidity AF patients.


Author(s):  
Silje Langseth Dahl ◽  
Rebekka Hylland Vaksdal ◽  
Mathias Barra ◽  
Espen Gamlund ◽  
Carl Tollef Solberg

In recent years, multifetal pregnancy reduction (MFPR) has increasingly been a subject of debate in Norway. The intensity of this debate reached a tentative maximum when the Legislation Department delivered their interpretative statement, Section 2 - Interpretation of the Abortion Act, in 2016 in response to a request from the Ministry of Health (2014) that the Legislation Department consider whether the Abortion Act allows for MFPR of healthy fetuses in multiple pregnancies. The Legislation Department concluded that the current abortion legislation [as of 2016] allows for MFPR subject to the constraints that the law otherwise stipulates. The debate has not subsided, and during autumn 2018 it was further intensified in connection with the Norwegian Christian Democratic "crossroads" policy and signals from the Conservatives to consider removing section 2.3c and to forbid MFPR. Many of the arguments in the MFPR debate are seemingly similar to arguments put forward in the general abortion debate, and an analysis to ascertain what distinguishes MFPR from other abortions has yet to be conducted. The aim of this article is, therefore, to examine whether there is a moral distinction between abortion and MFPR of healthy fetuses. We will cover the typical arguments emerging in the debate in Norway and exemplify them with scholarly articles from the literature. We have dubbed the most important arguments against MFPR that we have identified the harm argument, the slippery-slope argument, the intention argument, the grief argument, the long-term psychological effects for the woman argument, and the sorting argument. We conclude that these arguments do not measure up in terms of demonstrating a morally relevant difference between MFPR of healthy fetuses and other abortions. Our conclusion is, therefore — despite what several discussants seem to think — that there is no morally relevant difference between the two. Therefore, on the same conditions as we allow for abortions, we should also allow MFPR. Keywords: abortion, ethics, medical ethics, MFPR, selective MFPR


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