TOWARDS A QUALITATIVE-QUANTITATIVE DECISION-MAKING AID FOR FATIGUE LIFE EVALUATION OF NAVAL HIGH SPEED LIGHT CRAFT

The Life of Type (LOT) of a naval High Speed Light Craft (HSLC) can be limited by its structural fatigue life. The fatigue life of a ship is influenced by many factors, such as geometry, fabrication quality, the long-term load distribution, and analytical techniques. The complex dependencies between these factors and the fatigue life cause uncertainty in predictions. A lack of understanding of uncertainty can adversely affect the management of LOT risks, resulting in the reduction of availability of the ship and costly repairs. Therefore, improved understanding of the benefits and limitations of different fatigue life evaluation approaches informs the management of risks relating to the ship’s LOT. This paper presents the first phase of work in a comparative analysis of different fatigue life evaluation approaches for naval HSLC. The present work involves a holistic data review, codification of the data to reveal key themes, and individual expert comparative analysis of the different approaches. The next phase of the study is also described.

Enhancing Delphi Method with Algorithmic Estimates for Software Effort Estimation: An Experimental Study

Literature review shows that more accurate software effort and cost estimation methods are needed for software project management success. Expert judgment and algorithmic model estimation are two predominant methods discussed in the literature. Both are reported almost at the comparable level of accuracy performance. The combination of the two methods is suggested to increase the estimation accuracy. Delphi method is an encouraging structured expert judgment method for software effort group estimation but surprisingly little was reported in the literature. The objective of this study is to test if the Delphi estimates will be more accurate if the participants in the Delphi process are exposed to the algorithmic estimates. A Delphi experiment where the participants in the Delphi process were exposed to three algorithmic estimates –Function Points, COCOMO estimates, and Use Case Points, was therefore conducted. The findings show that the Delphi estimates are slightly more accurate than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates, but they are not statistically significant. However, the Delphi estimates are statistically significant more accurate than the individual estimates. The results also show that the Delphi estimates are slightly less optimistic than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates but they are not statistically significant either. The adapted Delphi experiment shows a promising technique for improving the software cost estimation accuracy.

A Fuzzy Delphi Based Inference System for Detecting and Controlling Rice Weeds

In this research, the purpose was to design a fuzzy expert system based on fuzzy delphi method to detect and control the rice weed. The statistical population was elites and experts with regard to the science, experience and field of activity; 15 experts were selected as the sample. Two questionnaires were used to design the desired fuzzy expert: i) Fuzzy Delphi Technique Weed Detection Questionnaire, ii) Delphi Technique Weed Control Questionnaire. The design of the desired expert system was done with MATLAB software and the fuzzy logic tool box. That is, after obtaining an appropriate range of factors, through attributing the fuzzy trapezoidal membership functions to these ranges and generating the input functions, designing the rule base of this system and combining the output results of each factor, a system was designed whose input was the weed factor and the output was scores assigned to weeds. MATLAB guide was also used to design the graphical user interface. Then, for validation the designed system was tested. The answers of system and individual expert were then analyzed using paired t-test. Root Mean Square Error and Middle Absolute Value Deviation tests were used to calculate the system errors. The results were 0.12 and 0.01, respectively. This indicates that the designed fuzzy expert system has sufficient accuracy. Finally, given that all but two of the examined rules are the same as the diagnosis of an individual expert, then in 94% of the cases, the diagnosis of the system is the same as the diagnosis of an individual expert.

Development of methodological support for improving the quality of expert assessment of business processes

The object of research is the process of forming a collective expert assessment with increased reliability in making management decisions in business structures by an expanded team of experts. One of the most problematic places in the expert assessment of management decisions is the complexity of forming a competent expert team and the rather high cost of the expertise. In recent years, there has been a tendency for expert assessment with an expanded team of experts. In this case, not only professional experts are involved in the examination, but also all persons wishing to take part in solving the problem. In this case, the reliability of the examination raises doubts. In connection with the participation in expert assessment of persons who do not have experience in expert work, a wide range of expert assessments is possible. The analysis of the current state of the methods of expert assessment in business is carried out. It has been established that the Delphi method, which was most used until recently, does not meet modern requirements. More progressive methods are based on mathematical consensus theory. Consensus is understood as the degree of correlation of individual expert assessments performed in rank scales. In the course of the study, formalized mathematical approaches to the organization of collective expertise were used. A method for processing the results of an examination with an expanded composition of experts was developed. The developed methodology is focused on identifying experts with insufficient qualifications. The methodology allows for a step-by-step assessment of the reliability of the collective expert decision by assessing the Kendall concordance coefficient. It is shown that the phased exclusion of assessments by experts with insufficient qualifications allows increasing the level of consensus, the quality and reliability of the collective expert assessment. The developed methodology has been tested in a really functioning enterprise to make a decision on the exit strategy of the enterprise from their crisis. The use of the developed methodology has made it possible to significantly increase the reliability of the examination results, assessed by the concordance coefficient. The results are useful for practical application in business structures when conducting expert examinations involving a wide range of participants.

Power to the People: The Impact of Student Personal Power on Performance in Teams

This article examines teammates’ perceptions of individual expert and referent power (personal power) in student teams working on a semester-long project. In our study, we found a positive relationship between being perceived as high in personal power (expert and referent power) by teammates and faculty advisor-rated performance, measured by quality and quantity of work, efficiency, meeting team goals, meeting deadlines, and overall performance. To examine the mechanism behind this relationship, we also examined and found that expressed humility mediated the effect between teammates’ power perceptions and individual performance. These findings suggest that power plays an important role in teammates’ perceptions of individuals, in the individual’s own performance, and in how humility functions in team settings. We further discuss these results in terms of practical implications as well as implications for management educators.

Towards a Qualitative-Quantitative Decision-Making Aid for Fatigue Life Evaluation of Naval High Speed Light Craft

The Life of Type (LOT) of a naval High Speed Light Craft (HSLC) can be limited by its structural fatigue life. The fatigue life of a ship is influenced by many factors, such as geometry, fabrication quality, the long-term load distribution, and analytical techniques. The complex dependencies between these factors and the fatigue life cause uncertainty in predictions. A lack of understanding of uncertainty can adversely affect the management of LOT risks, resulting in the reduction of availability of the ship and costly repairs. Therefore, improved understanding of the benefits and limitations of different fatigue life evaluation approaches informs the management of risks relating to the ship’s LOT. This paper presents the first phase of work in a comparative analysis of different fatigue life evaluation approaches for naval HSLC. The present work involves a holistic data review, codification of the data to reveal key themes, and individual expert comparative analysis of the different approaches. The next phase of the study is also described.

Reasons for seeking a divorce in Iran

Given the increasing rate of divorce in Iran, together with the need to adopt preventive measures based on cultural conditions, a requirement of utmost importance is to explore the reasons that drive Iranian couples to seek a divorce. In this nationwide study, which was conducted in nine capital cities chosen from 31 provinces in Iran, a total of 3,200 men and women (1,600 couples), who had petitioned the court for a divorce, received individual expert counseling services through a reliable and valid questionnaire. Of the 17 reasons that the divorce seekers provided as explanation for their decision, three were prominent: the inability to resolve conflicts, which led to disputes, dissatisfaction with the manner by which their spouses expressed their love and emotions, and discontent regarding a spouse’s personality traits. The findings highlighted the necessity of planning for enhanced conflict resolution and communication among men and women in Iranian society.

Harmonised Classification of the Causes of Defects in a Global Inspection System: Proposed Methodology and Analysis of Fieldwork Data

This research results from the development of a global inspection system based on previous studies about individual expert inspection systems for 12 types of elements/materials of the envelopes of current buildings. The research focuses on the rational harmonisation of the causes of defects in a global classification list, established from 12 individual lists. The process considers predetermined criteria, including guidelines for merging, splitting and combining causes to reach a comprehensive and simple list. The frequency of the prescription of causes of defects is analysed and the causes “C-D12 Dampening of the cladding system” in painted façades and “C-B7 Use of unprescribed, inadequate, incompatible, low-quality, non-certified and/or non-approved materials” in natural stone claddings stand out. Additionally, when analysing the relationship of causes with defects, some causes are highlighted because they are considered direct causes of defects in a broad range of building elements/materials, namely: “C-C9 Accidental collisions with the cladding”, “C-C7 Intentional collisions/vandalism”, “C-D2 Excessive, insufficient or differentiated solar radiation”, “C-D8 Presence of rainwater or snow” and “C-D12 Dampening of the cladding system”. The proposed list of causes successfully gathers causal knowledge on the pathology of the non-structural building envelope in a single component, homogenising the vocabulary used for several building elements/materials.

A Consensus Measure of Expert Judgment in the Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

In the case of many complex, real-world decision problems solved with the participation of a group of experts, it is important to capture the uncertainty of opinions and preferences expressed. In such situations, one can use many modifications of the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, for example, based on fuzzy numbers. In fuzzy TOPSIS, two aggregation methods of fuzzy expert opinions dominate, the first based on the average value technique and the second one extended by the minimum and maximum functions for determining the support of the aggregated fuzzy number. An important disadvantage of both techniques is the fact that the agreement degree of expert opinions is not taken into account. This article proposes the inclusion of the modified procedure for aggregating individual expert opinions, taking into account the degree of agreement of their opinions (called the similarity aggregation method—SAM) and the ranking of experts into the fuzzy TOPSIS method. The fuzzy TOPSIS method extended in this way was used to solve the decision problem of recruiting employees by a group of experts. As part of the solution, the modified SAM was compared with aggregation procedures based on the average value and min-max (minimum and maximum) support. The results of the conducted research indicate that SAM allows fuzzy numbers to be obtained, characterized by less imprecision and greater stability than the other two considered aggregation procedures.

Shovelling snow in Finnish Lapland: Social and aesthetic perspectives on an everyday activity

For residents of Finnish Lapland, snow frames outdoor and indoor activities during the entire year, both in its presence and in its absence. This article focuses on people’s social and aesthetic perspectives on what is commonly referred to as “snow work”, lumityö. In ethnographic tradition, the aim is to understand “doing living with snow” in contemporary urban society – with snow that falls and, unlike other forms of precipitation, stays around for many months to come, thus creating physical, mouldable obstacles that have mental, social and environmental consequences. The shovelling of snow is considered an important physical activity that allows people to practice their individual expert knowledge and lets them socialise during long annual periods of potential isolation. Hence, apart from its restricting features, snow and ice enhance the meaning of homeowners’ dwelling in the open. In this context, aesthetic and creative concepts are essential where they draw on people’s gardening and artistic skills, and bring satisfaction to those engaging with this mundane and unavoidable activity.