scholarly journals Sovereign Credit Rating Changes and Its Impact on Financial Markets of Europe during Debt Crisis Period in Greece and Ireland

Author(s):  
Fahad BASHIR ◽  
Omar MASOOD ◽  
Abdullah Imran SAHI
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (6) ◽  
pp. 48-69
Author(s):  
Natalia Pivnitskaya ◽  
Tamara Teplova

This article studies the contagion effects on the emerging financial markets of the Asian region. The contagion effect is manifested in the change of interconnection degree of financial markets after the shock in one of the countries of the region. In the paper, we consider the information on potential or actual change in sovereign credit rating as a shock leading to a contagion effect. Our sample includes evidence from 7 Asian countries covering the period from 2000 to 2018. We use the DCC-GARCH model which allows us to take into account the peculiarities of financial data behavior. We intend to show the effect of inconsistencies in ratings assigned by various agencies on strengthening or weakening the processes of contagion on Asia’s stock markets. We also study the impact of historical inconsistencies between credit rating outlooks and actual rating changes on the level of «trust» to credit outlooks in the future. In assessing the impact of discrepancies we assume that the market remembers recent events better than more distant in time. We were able to confirm the impact of inconsistencies in the ratings given by different rating agencies for China, Hong Kong, and India. In addition, we found that the presence of inconsistencies between the outlooks and actual rating updates in the past tend to weaken the trust regarding positive outlooks rather than negative ones.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Fatnassi ◽  
Zied Ftiti ◽  
Habib Hasnaoui

We analyze the reactions of the returns of four European stock markets to sovereign credit rating changes by Fitch, Moodys, and Standard and Poors (S&P) during the period from June 2008 to June 2012 using panel regression equations. We find that (i) upgrades and downgrades affect both own country returns and other countries returns, (ii) market reactions to foreign downgrades are stronger during the sovereign debt crisis period, and (iii) negative news from rating agencies are more informative than positive news.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunling Li ◽  
Khansa Pervaiz ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Judit Oláh

In modeling the impact of sovereign credit rating (CR) on financial markets, a considerable amount of the literature to date has been devoted to examining the short-term impact of CR on financial markets via an event-study methodology. The argument has been established that financial markets are sensitive to CR announcements, and market reactions to such announcements (both upgrading and degrading) are not the same. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag setting, the present study attempted to empirically test the linear and non-linear impacts of CR on financial market development (FMD) in the European region. Nonlinear specification is capable to capture asymmetries (upgrades and downgrades) in the estimation process, which have not been considered to date in financial market literature. Overall findings identified long-term asymmetries, while there was little evidence supporting the existence of short-term asymmetries. Thus, the present study has extended the financial market literature on the subject of the asymmetrical impact of a sovereign CR on European FMD and provides useful input for policy formation taking into account these nonlinearities. Policies solely based upon linear models may be misleading and detrimental.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-181
Author(s):  
Khansa Pervaiz ◽  
Zuzana Virglerová ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Usman Akbar ◽  
József Popp

Each region/country seeks to become more efficient to gain the confidence of potential investors. Most of the Asian economies are categorized as emerging markets, where the role of financial markets has even become more intensified to provide financial services to increasing economic and financial activities. Asian financial market has momentously suffered during the Asian, and global financial crisis. The mass destruction was mainly caused due to the mounting uncertainty, which spillover throughout the region, where investors lost their confidence. Considering the pivotal economic role of financial markets, and implications evolve due to sovereign credit rating announcements, this study aims to model the role of sovereign credit rating announcements by Standard and Poor’s, and Moody’s on financial market development of the Asian region. For 24 Asian countries/regions, we perform a regression analysis on sovereign credit rating changes based on financial market development index and its factors. The findings of Driscoll Kraay’s robust estimator reveals that improvement in sovereign credit rating score enhances the financial market development in the region. Moreover, we applied several robustness checks, such as alternative estimators, alternative measures, and three sub-dimensions of financial market development. According to the findings from these robustness checks, the positive impact of sovereign credit ratings on financial market development in the region is robust. Unlike prior literature (which is confined to the event study approach), this study utilizes the historical grades to establish the relationship under the standard error clustering approach. Due to the diversity of investors’ speculations, we propose a micro-level extension of the present model to overcome a difference in country policy.


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