The association between alcohol restriction policies and vehicle-related mortality in Cali, Colombia, 1998-2008

Mena, J., Sánchez, Á., Gutiérrez, M., Puyana, J., & Suffoleto, B. (2014). The association between alcohol restriction policies and vehicle-related mortality in Cali, Colombia, 1998-2008. The International Journal Of Alcohol And Drug Research, 3(2), 149-158. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.v3i2.157Aims: To determine whether the implementation of alcohol control policies was associated with changes in the incidence of road traffic deaths.Design: Ecologic study conducted using an interrupted time series analysis. Full restrictive polices banned alcohol between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. Most restrictive polices prohibited alcohol between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. Moderately restrictive policies banned alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m.Setting: We used data of road traffic mortality in the population of Cali, Colombia from 1998 to 2008.Participants: The population of Cali in 2008 was 2,184,753 inhabitants; 47% were male.Measures: Aggregated daily counts of road traffic deaths. Restrictive policies were compared with lax policies to estimate the effect of reducing hours of alcohol availability using multiple negative binomial regressions.Findings: There was a decreased risk of road traffic mortality in periods when moderately restrictive policies were in effect (IRR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.72–0.97, p = 0.019). There was an even lower risk of road traffic deaths in periods when most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.58–0.85, p < 0.001). In motorcyclists, most restrictive (IRR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38–0.81, p = 0.002) and full restrictive policies (IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.94, p = 0.032) were associated with decreased risk of mortality.Conclusions: Our findings support more restrictive alcohol control policies to reduce road traffic mortality. Specifically, reducing the time of alcohol availability was associated with a decrease in road traffic death rates.

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Can alcohol control policies reduce liver cirrhosis mortality? An interrupted time series analysis in Lithuania

Liver International ◽

10.1111/liv.15151 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Alexander Tran ◽

Huan Jiang ◽

Shannon Lange ◽

Jakob Manthey ◽

Mindaugas Štelemėkas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Liver Cirrhosis ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Control Policies ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Alcohol Control ◽

Cirrhosis Mortality

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Can Alcohol Control Policies Reduce Liver Cirrhosis Mortality? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Lithuania

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3821484 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexander Tran ◽

Huan Jiang ◽

Shannon Lange ◽

Jakob Manthey ◽

Mindaugas Štelemėkas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Liver Cirrhosis ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Control Policies ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Alcohol Control ◽

Cirrhosis Mortality

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Impact of night travel ban on road traffic crashes and fatalities in Zambia: an interrupted time series analysis

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005481 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (12) ◽

pp. e005481

Author(s):

Peter Hangoma ◽

Kantu Moonga-Mukale

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Annual Average ◽

Traffic Crashes ◽

Road Traffic Crashes ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Data Points

BackgroundThe burden of road traffic crashes (RTCs) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) has been increasing in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Most RTCs and RTFs happen at night. Although few countries, including Zambia, have implemented night travel bans, there is no evidence on the extent to which such policies may reduce crashes and fatalities.MethodsWe exploit the quasi-experimental set up afforded by the banning of night travel of public service vehicles in Zambia in 2016 and interrupted time series analysis to assess whether the ban had an impact on both levels and trends in RTCs and RTFs. We use annual administrative data for the period 2006—2020, with 10 pre-intervention and 4 post-intervention data points. In an alternative specification, we restrict the analysis to the period 2012—2020 so that the number of data points are the same pre-interventions and post-interventions. We also carry out robustness checks to rule out other possible explanation of the results including COVID-19.ResultsThe night travel ban was associated with a reduction in the level of RTCs by 4131.3 (annual average RTCs before the policy=17 668) and a reduction in the annual trend in RTCs by 2485.5. These effects were significant at below 1%, and they amount to an overall reduction in RTCs by 24%. The policy was also associated with a 57.5% reduction in RTFs. In absolute terms, the trend in RTFs reduced by 477.5 (Annual average RTFs before the policy=1124.7), which is significant at below 1% level. Our results were broadly unchanged in alternative specifications.ConclusionWe conclude that a night travel ban may be an effective way of reducing the burden of RTCs and RTFs in Zambia and other LMICs. However, complementary policies are needed to achieve more gains.

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England's Lockdown vs. Sweden's Herd Immunity: A Comparison of the Daily New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Using Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

10.1101/2020.08.13.20174706 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Moaath Mustafa Ali ◽

Yazan Samhouri ◽

Marwa Sabha ◽

Lynna Alnimer

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Post Intervention ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Before And After ◽

Rebound Increase ◽

Related Mortality

Background: There is a lack of empirical evidence that lockdowns decrease daily cases of COVID-19 and related mortality compared to herd immunity. England implemented a delayed lockdown on March 23, 2020, but Sweden did not. We aim to examine the effect of lockdown on daily COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the first 100 days post-lockdown. Methods: We compared daily cases of COVID-19 infection and related mortality in England and Sweden before and after lockdown intervention using a comparative-interrupted time series analysis. The period included was from COVID-19 pandemic onset till June 30, 2020. Results: The adjusted-rate of daily COVID-19 infections was eight cases/10,000,000 person higher in England than Sweden before lockdown order (95% CI: 2-14, P=0.01). On the day of intervention (lagged lockdown), England had 693 more COVID-19 cases/10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 467-920, P<0.001). Compared to the pre-intervention period, the adjusted daily confirmed cases rate decreased by 19 cases/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 13-26, P<0.001). There was a rate excess of 1.5 daily deaths/ 10,000,000 person in England compared to Sweden pre-intervention (95% CI: 1-2, P<0.001). The increased mortality rate resulted in 50 excess deaths/ 10,000,000 person related to COVID-19 in England compared to Sweden on the day of lockdown (95% CI: 30-71, P<0.001). Post-intervention, the rate of daily deaths in England decreased by two deaths/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 1-3, P<0.001). During phases one and two of lockdown lifting in England, there was no rebound increase in daily cases or deaths compared to Sweden. Conclusion: The lockdown order implemented in England on March 23, 2020, effectively decreased the daily new cases rate and related mortality compared to Sweden. There was no short-term increase in COVID-19 cases and related-deaths after the phases one and two of the lifting of restrictions in England compared to Sweden. This study provides empirical, comparative evidence that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities compared to herd immunity.

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The Effects of the 2006 Russian Alcohol Policy on Alcohol-Related Mortality: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Alcoholism Clinical and Experimental Research ◽

10.1111/acer.12256 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 38 (1) ◽

pp. 257-266 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

William Alex Pridemore ◽

Mitchell B. Chamlin ◽

Maria T. Kaylen ◽

Evgeny Andreev

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Alcohol Policy ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Related Mortality

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Time-varying effect of drunk driving regulations on road traffic mortality in Guangzhou, China: an interrupted time-series analysis

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11958-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Xiao-Han Xu ◽

Hang Dong ◽

Li Li ◽

Zhou Yang ◽

Guo-Zhen Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Road Traffic ◽

Drunk Driving ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Motor Vehicles ◽

Average Risk ◽

Time Varying ◽

Traffic Fatalities ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Intervention Measures ◽

Daily Data

Abstract Background China has introduced a series of stricter policies to criminalize drunk driving and increase penalties since May 2011. However, there is no previous study examining the time-varying impacts of drunk driving regulations on road traffic fatalities based on daily data. Methods We collected 6536 individual data of road traffic deaths (RTDs) in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2018. The quasi-Poisson regression models with an inclusion of the intervention variable and the interaction of intervention variable and a function of time were used to quantify the time-varying effects of these regulations. Results During the 11-year study period, the number of population and motor vehicles showed a steady upward trend. However, the population- and motor vehicles- standardized RTDs rose steadily before May 2011, the criminalizing drunk driving intervention was implemented and gradually declined after that. The new drunk driving intervention were associated with an average risk reduction of RTDs (ER = -9.01, 95% eCI: − 10.05% to − 7.62%) during the 7.7 years after May 2011. On average, 75.82 (95% eCI, 54.06 to 92.04) RTDs per 1 million population annually were prevented due to the drunk driving intervention. Conclusion These findings would provide important implications for the development of integrated intervention measures in China and other countries attempting to reduce traffic fatalities by stricter regulations on drunk driving.

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Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and pertussis in France using multiple nationwide data sources

10.1101/2021.07.16.21260367 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Soraya Matczak ◽

Corinne Levy ◽

Camille Fortas ◽

Jeremie F. Cohen ◽

Stephane Bechet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Data Sources ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

National Network ◽

Vaccination Recommendations ◽

Quasi Experimental

Background: Interventions to mitigate coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic may impact other respiratory diseases such as pertussis. We aimed to study the course of pertussis in France over an 8-year period and its association with COVID-19 mitigation strategies, using multiple nationwide data sources. Methods: We analyzed the number of French pertussis cases between 2013 and 2020, using the PCR test results from nationwide outpatient laboratories (Source 1) and the pediatric network of 41 hospitals (Source 2), and using the reports of an office-based pediatric national network (Source 3). We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis, relying on negative binomial regression models. The models accounted for seasonality, longterm cycles, and secular trend, and included a binary variable for the first national lockdown (ordered on March 16, 2021). Results: We identified 19,039 cases of pertussis from the three data sources during the study period. There was a significant decrease of pertussis cases following the implementation of mitigation measures, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 0.102 (95% CI 0.040-0.256) and 0.216 (95% CI 0.071-0.656) for Source 1 and Source 2, respectively. The association was confirmed in Source 3 (median of 1 [IQR 0-2] vs. 0 [IQR 0-0] pertussis cases per month before and after lockdown, respectively, p=0.0048). Conclusion: The drastic reduction of outpatient and hospitalized cases of pertussis strongly suggests an impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures and their consequences on pertussis epidemiology. Pertussis vaccination recommendations should be carefully followed, and disease monitoring should be continued to detect any resurgence after relaxation of mitigation measures.

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Impact of the Introduction of Rotavirus Vaccine on Hospital Admissions for Diarrhea Among Children in Kenya: A Controlled Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciz912 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 70 (11) ◽

pp. 2306-2313 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Grieven P Otieno ◽

Christian Bottomley ◽

Sammy Khagayi ◽

Ifedayo Adetifa ◽

Mwanajuma Ngama ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Substantial Reduction ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Rotavirus Vaccine ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Control Series ◽

Vaccine Introduction ◽

Series Analysis

Abstract Background Monovalent rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline), was introduced in Kenya in July 2014 and is recommended to infants as oral doses at ages 6 and 10 weeks. A multisite study was established in 2 population-based surveillance sites to evaluate vaccine impact on the incidence of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations (RVHs). Methods Hospital-based surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to June 2017 for acute diarrhea hospitalizations among children aged <5 years in 2 health facilities in Kenya. A controlled interrupted time-series analysis was undertaken to compare RVH pre– and post–vaccine introduction using rotavirus-negative cases as a control series. The change in incidence post–vaccine introduction was estimated from a negative binomial model that adjusted for secular trend, seasonality, and multiple health worker industrial actions (strikes). Results Between January 2010 and June 2017 there were 1513 and 1652 diarrhea hospitalizations in Kilifi and Siaya; among those tested for rotavirus, 28% (315/1142) and 23% (197/877) were positive, respectively. There was a 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8–80%) reduction in RVHs observed in the first year post–vaccine introduction in Kilifi and a 59% (95% CI, 20–79%) reduction in Siaya. In the second year, RVHs decreased further at both sites, 80% (95% CI, 46–93%) reduction in Kilifi and 82% reduction in Siaya (95% CI. 61–92%); this reduction was sustained at both sites into the third year. Conclusions A substantial reduction in RVHs and all-cause diarrhea was observed in 2 demographic surveillance sites in Kenya within 3 years of vaccine introduction.

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