Risk Assessment and Emergency Response of Oil Spill for Offshore Oil Activity

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 299545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Lyu ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Wenpu Wei ◽  
Wei An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Consequence Assessment ◽  
Volume Property ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Offshore Petroleum

With the greatly development in offshore gas and oil activity in China, the potential risk of oil spill attract more public attentions. In order to effectively limit the spilling incidence and bring it under control, it is necessary to establish a risk assessment model for offshore petroleum activity and prepare the oil spill response resource in an effective way. In this paper, a quantified risk assessment model, including the spill probability and consequence assessment, was developed using fuzzy comprehensive method. The spill probability assessment was established with view of the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of different kinds of offshore petroleum facilities and operation; the consequence assessment was proposed to several factors including the spilling volume, property of spilled oil, spilling location and the elements of spilling detection and controlling capability of operator. Based on the result from risk assessment, we can identify the comprehensive spill risk level (low, ALARP, high) and make a decision whether the response resource allocated to the site could be enough. The multiply oil spill response devices and facilities, especially the oil recovery vessel, were largely used in China and will be expand in future.

scholarly journals Risk factors, risk assessment, and prognosis in patients with gynecological cancer and thromboembolism

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 030006051989317
Author(s):  
Xindan Wang ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Zhao Bingbing ◽  
Shape Li ◽  
Li Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gynecological Cancer ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

Objective This study aimed to investigate a suitable risk assessment model to predict deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with gynecological cancer. Methods Data from 212 patients with gynecological cancer in the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were risk-stratified with three different risk assessment models individually, including the Caprini model, Wells DVT model, and Khorana model. Results The difference in risk level evaluated by the Caprini model was not different between the DVT and control groups. However, the DVT group had a significantly higher risk level than the control group with the Wells DVT or Khorana model. The Wells DVT model was more effective for stratifying patients in the DVT group into the higher risk level and for stratifying those in the control group into the lower risk level. Receiver operating curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the Wells DVT, Khorana, and Caprini models was 0.995 ± 0.002, 0.642 ± 0.038, and 0.567 ± 0.039, respectively. Conclusion The Wells DVT model is the most suitable risk assessment model for predicting DVT. Clinicians could also combine the Caprini and Wells DVT models to effectively identify high-risk patients and eliminate patients without DVT.

Development and application of oil-spill risk assessment model for offshore pipeline

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Lu ◽  
Jia Wang ◽  
Wenpu Wei ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Wei An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Offshore Pipeline

DEVELOPING A GUIDELINE FOR OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND RESPONSE PLANNING FOR OFFSHORE INSTALLATIONS

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 314-327
Author(s):  
Torild Ronnaug Nissen-Lie ◽  
Odd Willy Brude ◽  
Ole Oystein Aspholm ◽  
Peter Mark Taylor ◽  
David Davidson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
Oil Spill Response

ABSTRACT Following the April 2010 Gulf of Mexico (Macondo) oil spill and the 2009 Montara incident in Australia, the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (OGP) formed the Global Industry Response Group. This Group identified nineteen oil spill response recommendations (OGP, 2011) that are being addressed via an Oil Spill Response Joint Industry Project (OSR-JIP) during 2012–2014. The OSR-JIP is managed by IPIECA on behalf of OGP, in recognition of IPIECA's long-standing experience with oil spill response matters. One of the nineteen recommendations concerned the development of an international guideline for offshore oil spill risk assessment and a method to better relate oil spill response resources to the risk level. Consequently, the OSR-JIP has published a guideline covering oil spill risk assessment and response planning for offshore installations. This paper describes the development and content of the guideline, including how the oil spill risk assessment process provides structured and relevant information to oil spill response planning for offshore operations. The process starts by defining the context of the assessment and describing the activity to be assessed. Thereafter it addresses a series of key questions:What can go wrong, leading to potential release of oil?What happens to the spilled oil?What are the impacts on key environmental - both ecological and socio-economic - receptors?What is the risk for environmental damage?How is the established risk utilised in oil spill response planning? The guideline draws on existing good practices in the determination of oil spill response resources. It promotes consideration, in tactical and logistical detail, of the preferred and viable response strategies to address scenarios covering the range of potential oil spills up to the most serious. The methodology to evaluate the potential spill scenarios utilizes a series of questions:What are the viable techniques/strategies to deliver response with greatest net environment benefit?What are the tactical measures required to implement the identified response strategies, considering technical, practical and safety factors?What Tiered resources are required to mount the tactical measures and achieve effective response? The paper summarizes the useful tools, key information and the necessary level of detail essential to perform an oil spill risk assessment for use in oil spill response planning.

scholarly journals Water Quality Pollutants and Health Risk assessment for Four Different Drinking Water Sources

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Miaomiao Tian ◽  
Wenzhao Li ◽  
Meijuan Ruan ◽  
Jing Wei ◽  
Weiwei Ma
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Acceptable Risk

Drinking water quality has become a great concern to the whole society, especially in heavily polluted rural areas. This paper analyzes the water quality of 100 water supping the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) recommended health risk assessment model. The results showed that the microbial indicators exceeded the standard in the whole year, and some of the water supply units which lead, nitrated and dissolved solids exceeding the standard. The model recommended by EPA is applied to establish risk assessment model for health risk assessment of adults in wet and dry seasons, respectively. Results of HRA indicated that carcinogenic risk of chromium was 7.61E-05a-1 and the risk value of arsenic was 9.92E-06a-1 which exceed the maximum acceptable risk level recommended by USEPA 5.0×10-5 closely to the ICPR recommendation 1.0×10-6. Meanwhile we conduct health risk assessment (HRA) on relevant non-carcinogenic indicators: nitrate is 2.95E-09a-1, the risk value of fluoride (F) is 2.49E-09a-1, the risk value of lead is 2.39E-09a-1 and copper (Cu) 9.00E-10a-1 exceeds the maximum acceptable risk level risk value recommended by USEPA 1.0×10-9. The above indicators require priority control and management of pollutants that are prioritized and managed.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Model for Risk Assessment of Machinery Failures

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan V. Petrović ◽  
Miloš Tanasijević ◽  
Saša Stojadinović ◽  
Jelena Ivaz ◽  
Pavle Stojković
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

The main goal of this research was the development of an algorithm for the implementation of negative risk parameters in a synthesis model for a risk level assessment for a specific machine used in the mining industry. Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic theory, in combination with statistical methods, were applied to analyze the time picture state of the observed machine. Fuzzy logic is presented through fuzzy proposition and a fuzzy composition module. Using these tools, the symmetric position of the fuzzy sets with regard to class was used, and the symmetric fuzzy inference approach was used in an outcome calculation. The main benefit of the proposed model is being able to use numerical and linguistic data in a risk assessment model. The proposed risk assessment model, using fuzzy logic conclusions and min–max composition, was used on a mobile crushing machine. The results indicated that the risk level of the mobile crushing machine was in the “high” category, which means that it is necessary to introduce maintenance policies based on this high risk. The proposed risk assessment model is useful for any engineering system.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanfei Tian ◽  
Xuecheng Sun ◽  
Lijia Chen ◽  
Liwen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Weight Functions ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Membership Degree ◽  
Fixed Weight ◽  
Qiongzhou Strait ◽  
Set Up

In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC). The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP); Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS) to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.

Risk Assessment Model Based on SVDD and Fuzzy Regression Method

2011 ◽  
Vol 58-60 ◽  
pp. 1807-1812
Author(s):  
Hui Li Zhou ◽  
Wen Bing Chang ◽  
Sheng Han Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fuzzy Regression ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Support Vector Data Description ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Model Based

The paper aims to solve the problem of insufficient high risk data in risk assessment of R&D projects. A one-class classification method called support vector data description (SVDD) is studied, and an intelligent risk assessment model based on SVDD with fuzzy regression information is also proposed. The model comes into being a new approach. Applying this approach, firstly verify the conversional risk evaluation indexes by fuzzy regression technique to develop a sensitive index system. Secondly the study uses the historical risk data referring to these indexes to train the SVDD one-class classifier. Unlike previously proposed intelligent methods of risk assessment, with this model the risk level can be distinguished only by training of low risk data. The results of its application on an example show that the method is feasible for risk assessment with the fuzzy high risk data.

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