PROBABLE APPROACH TO SAFETY ASSESSMENT INFORMATION FROM THREATS

It is well known that the main goal of information protection is to ensure a given level of its security. The specified level of information security is characterized by the state of its protection from threats, which provides an acceptable risk of its destruction, alteration, theft, and blocking. Risks depend on the level of engineering and technical protection of information (ITZI), which is determined by the resources of the system. The more resource for information protection, the higher the level of security. With an unlimited resource, you can get an arbitrarily small probability of a threat being realized.

Some aspects of justification of acceptable risk levels in oil refineries

Currently, the problems of environmental safety are facing society. The industry develops every year. In this critical economic situation, the oil industry is a stimulant for the economic sector in Azerbaijan. The level of development of this industry is also relevant due to other reasons: sociological, technological and features of the economy of Azerbaijan. The production activity of oil processing, concentrating harmful substances and energy, is a source of man-made danger and pollution of the natural environment. The risk management process mainly consists of three stages - risk safety analysis, risk assessment, which is carried out in comparison of calculated and actual risk levels, the so-called acceptable risk levels and the adoption of appropriate regulations and management decisions. One of the factors that should be taken into account when assessing risk and safety is to determine the necessary costs. Since these costs are paid directly to the company, they try to minimize them as much as possible, which reduce the accuracy of risk assessment. One of the objectives of the study is to determine the optimal value of the necessary costs. It is established that the less reliable the method, the lower is the cost of its implementation. The methodological basis of the work was scientific works on these problems of scientists-economists, mathematicians on safety and risk assessment at industrial enterprises. When developing the presented methodology, computational algorithms developed by Dow Chemical were used. This company has collected a large volume of material on accident statistics, taking into account damages. Based on the obtained and experimentally verified data, a system of indices has been developed, an assessment of various indicators for qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of oil refineries. The analysis of the technogenic danger of oil refineries makes it possible to determine ecological and economic losses and choose rational possibilities of acceptable risk. The required costs, depending on the level of risk, are determined based on an increase in the accuracy of calculating the probability of occurrence of the cause of risks. The article examines the relationship between the expected level of risk and economic losses during oil refining in separate technological units, which allow determining the required level of risk and the expected economic damage.

Size-Segregated Elemental Profile and Associated Heath Risk Assessment of Road Dust along Major Traffic Corridors in Kolkata Mega City

Particle size distribution (PSD) of road dust has significant repercussions on atmospheric pollution by road dust resuspension. The PSD of road dust at a few major commercial, traffic, and residential sites in Kolkata mega city was analyzed in the size range of <28–2000 µm. Predominance of the coarse size range (212–600 µm followed by 106–212 µm) was observed. In size-segregated road dust, Fe (4.02–31.2 g kg−1) dominated other elements and was followed by Mg (2.13–10.9 g kg−1), Mn (79.2–601 mg kg−1), Li (395.8–506.8 mg kg−1), and others. Fine particles (<28 μm) had higher elemental concentrations than coarser ones. Cd and Li showed the highest degree of enrichment compared to the Earth’s crust, but only Cd posed significant ecological risk due to its high ecological toxicity. Individual elements did not post significant non-cancer health risks, except for Li in children. However, the cumulative non-cancer risk from all toxic elements for children was almost four times higher than the acceptable level. Lifetime exposure to carcinogenic elements at the current level may pose 5 to 6 times higher cancer risk in the adult population than the acceptable risk of one in a million.

Evaluation of flood risk as a step in determining the “Acceptable Risk” criteria. Case study: Dengkeng River, Klaten, Central Java

The planning of a flood control system in Indonesia is based on the planning criteria issued by the Ministry of Public Works. Flood control planning is based on flood discharge with a specific return period depending on the order of the river and the number of protected populations. Flood events in areas where the flood control system has been planned continue to occur almost every year, meaning that the probability of being exceeded is not as planned. This study is intended to evaluate the criteria for the magnitude of the designed flood discharge in flood control planning that considers the acceptable risk. Potential risks are evaluated against system reliability. The probability of failure of the flood control system occurs if the resistance is smaller than the load expressed as a performance function. By knowing the performance function associated with the level of flood risk, then the flood discharge can be selected with the appropriate return period according to the acceptable risk.

When Helping Is Risky: The Behavioral and Neurobiological Trade-off of Social and Risk Preferences

Helping other people can entail risks for the helper. For example, when treating infectious patients, medical volunteers risk their own health. In such situations, decisions to help should depend on the individual’s valuation of others’ well-being (social preferences) and the degree of personal risk the individual finds acceptable (risk preferences). We investigated how these distinct preferences are psychologically and neurobiologically integrated when helping is risky. We used incentivized decision-making tasks (Study 1; N = 292 adults) and manipulated dopamine and norepinephrine levels in the brain by administering methylphenidate, atomoxetine, or a placebo (Study 2; N = 154 adults). We found that social and risk preferences are independent drivers of risky helping. Methylphenidate increased risky helping by selectively altering risk preferences rather than social preferences. Atomoxetine influenced neither risk preferences nor social preferences and did not affect risky helping. This suggests that methylphenidate-altered dopamine concentrations affect helping decisions that entail a risk to the helper.

An exceedance probability of the influence in the Building Code

Во всем мире на картах сейсмической опасности приводятся наиболее вероятные значения сейсмических воздействий. В соответствии с допустимым риском эти значения могут быть увеличены. Например, в международных нормах для расчета сейсмостойкости радиационно-опасных объектов наиболее вероятные значения ускорений увеличиваются на величину стандартного отклонения. В отечественных строительных нормах предполагается использование наиболее вероятных значений. Считается, что вследствие различных факторов расчеты воздействий сопровождаются некоторыми погрешностями, вследствие чего оценки воздействий могут быть завышены на 10, 5 и 1% для карт ОСР А, В и С соответственно. Эти оценки были существенно увеличены при округлении оценок интенсивности до целочисленных значений баллов. Однако в пояснительной записке это не было отражено. Поэтому вместо 10, 5 и 1% для карт ОСР А, В и С следуют значения 50, 45 и 41% соответственно. Поскольку баллы нельзя непосредственно использовать в инженерных расчетах, согласно строительным нормам, производится пересчет баллов в ускорения по шкале MSK-64. Однако, еще создатели шкалы MSK-64 b карт ОСР и шкалы MSK-64 указывали, что шкала занижает оценки ускорений примерно в полтора раза. Причина – в шкале MSK-64 приводятся не реальные, а фильтрованные значения. Во время создания этой шкалы основная масса зданий имела не более 5 этажей. Фильтрацией удалялись низкочастотные составляющие, неопасные для существующих зданий. Цель работы – оценить реальную вероятность превышения уровня воздействий при расчетах сейсмостойкости зданий и сооружений. Методы исследования – анализ процедур оценки расчетных воздействий с использованием карт ОСР и строительных норм. Результаты работы – показано, что нормативный уровень ускорений при расчетах сейсмостойкости более, чем в два раза ниже реальных значений All over the world, the most probable values of seismic impacts are shown on seismic hazard maps. According to the acceptable risk, these values can be increased. In domestic building codes, it is customary to use the most likely values. It is believed that due to various factors, the impact calculations are accompanied by some errors, as a result of which the impact estimates may be overstated by 10, 5 and 1% for the general SRF maps A, B and C, respectively. However, these estimates were significantly increased when rounding the intensity estimates to integer values of the scores. However, this was not reflected in the explanatory note. Since the points cannot be directly used in engineering calculations, according to the building codes, the points are converted into accelerations on the MSK-64 scale. However, even the creators of the OSR maps and the MSK-64 scale indicated that the scale underestimates the acceleration estimates by about one and a half times. The Aim of the workis to assess the real probability of exceeding the impact level when calculating the seismic resistance of buildings and structures. Research methods - analysis of procedures for assessing calculated impacts using SRF maps and building codes. Results of the work - it is shown that the standard level of accelerations in the calculations of seismic resistance is more than twice lower than the real values.