scholarly journals Trajectory of COVID-19 Data in India: Investigation and Project Using Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Time Series and ARIMA Models

2020 ◽  
pp. 46-54
Author(s):  
Pradeep Mishra ◽  
Chellai Fatih ◽  
Deepa Rawat ◽  
Saswati Sahu ◽  
Sagar Anand Pandey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Health ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
The Impact

Due to the impact of Corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic that exists today, all countries, national and international organizations are in a continuous effort to find efficient and accurate statistical models for forecasting the future pattern of COVID infection. Accurate forecasting should help governments to take decisive decisions to master the pandemic spread.  In this article, we explored the COVID-19 database of India between 17th March to 1st July 2020, then we estimated two nonlinear time series models: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) by comparing them with ARIMA model. In terms of model adequacy, the FTS model out performs the ANN for the new cases and new deaths time series in India. We observed a short-term virus spread trend according to three forecasting models.Such findings help in more efficient preparation for the Indian health system.

A Novel Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Method Based on Bootstrapped Combined Pi-Sigma Artificial Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eren Bas ◽  
Erol Egrioglu ◽  
Emine Kölemen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Artificial Neural

Background: Intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting methods have been started to solve the forecasting problems in the literature. Intuitionistic fuzzy time series methods use both membership and non-membership values as auxiliary variables in their models. Because intuitionistic fuzzy sets take into consideration the hesitation margin and so the intuitionistic fuzzy time series models use more information than fuzzy time series models. The background of this study is about intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Objective: The study aims to propose a novel intuitionistic fuzzy time series method. It is expected that the proposed method will produce better forecasts than some selected benchmarks. Method: The proposed method uses bootstrapped combined Pi-Sigma artificial neural network and intuitionistic fuzzy c-means. The combined Pi-Sigma artificial neural network is proposed to model the intuitionistic fuzzy relations. Results and Conclusion: The proposed method is applied to different sets of SP&500 stock exchange time series. The proposed method can provide more accurate forecasts than established benchmarks for the SP&500 stock exchange time series. The most important contribution of the proposed method is that it creates statistical inference: probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals and the empirical distribution of the forecasts. Moreover, the proposed method is better than the selected benchmarks for the SP&500 data set.

Univariate Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting Demand of Low Cost House in Petaling Jaya

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhisham Bakhary ◽  
Khairulzan Yahya ◽  
Chin Nam Ng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Low Cost Housing ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Kebelakangan ini ramai penyelidik mendapati ‘Artificial Neural Network’ (ANN) untuk digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kejuruteraan awam. Banyak aplikasi ANN dalam proses peramalan menghasilkan kejayaan. Kajian ini memfokuskan kepada penggunaan siri masa ‘Univariate Neural Network’ untuk meramalkan permintaan rumah kos rendah di daerah Petaling Jaya, Selangor. Dalam kajian ini, beberapa kes bagi sesi latihan dan ramalan telah dibuat untuk mendapatkan model terbaik bagi meramalkan permintaan rumah. Nilai RMSE yang paling rendah yang diperolehi bagi tahap validasi adalah 0.560 dan nilai MAPE yang diperolehi adalah 8.880%. Hasil kajian ini menunjukkan kaedah ini memberikan keputusan yang boleh diterima dalam peramalan permintaan rumah berdasarkan data masa lalu. Kata kunci: Univariate Neural Network, permintaan rumah kos rendah, RMSE, MAPE Recently researchers have found the potential applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in various fields in civil engineering. Many attempts to apply ANN as a forecasting tool has been successful. This paper highlighted the application of Time Series Univariate Neural Network in forecasting the demand of low cost house in Petaling Jaya district, Selangor, using historical data ranging from February 1996 to Appril 2000. Several cases of training and testing were conducted to obtain the best neural network model. The lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) obtained for validation step is 0.560 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 8.880%. These results show that ANN is able to provide reliable result in term of forecasting the housing demand based on previous housing demand record. Key words: Time Series Univariate Neural Network, low cost housing demand, RMSE, MAPE

A new fuzzy time series method based on an ARMA-type recurrent Pi-Sigma artificial neural network

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 8243-8252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Kocak ◽  
Ali Zafer Dalar ◽  
Ozge Cagcag Yolcu ◽  
Eren Bas ◽  
Erol Egrioglu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Method ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals SEIRDQ: A COVID-19 case projection modeling framework using ANN to model quarantine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harish Chandra ◽  
Xianwei Meng ◽  
Arman Margaryan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Model Versus ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
The Impact

We propose and implement a novel approach to model the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic and predict the daily COVID-19 cases (infected, recovered and dead). Our model builds on the classical SEIR-based framework by adding additional compartments to capture recovered, dead and quarantined cases. Quarantine impacts are modeled using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), leveraging alternative data sources such as the Google mobility reports. Since our model captures the impact of lockdown policies through the quarantine functions we designed, it is able to model and predict future waves of COVID-19 cases. We also benchmark out-of-sample predictions from our model versus those from other popular COVID-19 case projection models.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal monthly rainfall reconstruction via artificial neural network – case study: south of Brazil

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 67-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. S. Lucio ◽  
F. C. Conde ◽  
I. F. A. Cavalcanti ◽  
A. I. Serrano ◽  
A. M. Ramos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Monthly Total ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
South Of Brazil

Abstract. Climatological records users, frequently, request time series for geographical locations where there is no observed meteorological attributes. Climatological conditions of the areas or points of interest have to be calculated interpolating observations in the time of neighboring stations and climate proxy. The aim of the present work is the application of reliable and robust procedures for monthly reconstruction of precipitation time series. Time series is a special case of symbolic regression and we can use Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to explore the spatiotemporal dependence of meteorological attributes. The ANN seems to be an important tool for the propagation of the related weather information to provide practical solution of uncertainties associated with interpolation, capturing the spatiotemporal structure of the data. In practice, one determines the embedding dimension of the time series attractor (delay time that determine how data are processed) and uses these numbers to define the network's architecture. Meteorological attributes can be accurately predicted by the ANN model architecture: designing, training, validation and testing; the best generalization of new data is obtained when the mapping represents the systematic aspects of the data, rather capturing the specific details of the particular training set. As illustration one takes monthly total rainfall series recorded in the period 1961–2005 in the Rio Grande do Sul – Brazil. This reliable and robust reconstruction method has good performance and in particular, they were able to capture the intrinsic dynamic of atmospheric activities. The regional rainfall has been related to high-frequency atmospheric phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña events, and low frequency phenomena, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network for analyzing the chaotic time series motion: The case of the Lebanese GDP

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Verne
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Chaotic Dynamic ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract In this paper, we propose to analyze the motion of the Lebanese GDP over the period 1950-2019. This macroeconomic aggregate reveals large fluctuations notably during the civil war period (1975-1990). By estimating the Lyapunov exponents with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) procedure, we show that this series exhibits a strange attractor generated by a chaotic dynamic and we use the embedding procedure to shed in light the bizarre structure of such a series. Thus, the ANN method gives better results regarding prediction than other linear regression models and allows to fit with accuracy the chaotic motion followed by the Lebanese GDP in the phase space.

Forecasting of Air Pollution Index with Artificial Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Haizum Abd Rahman ◽  
Muhammad Hisyam Lee ◽  
Mohd Talib Latif ◽  
Suhartono S.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Air Pollution Index ◽  
Artificial Neural

In recent years, the arisen of air pollution in urban area address much attention globally. The air pollutants has emerged detrimental effects on health and living conditions. Time series forecasting is the important method nowadays with the ability to predict the future events. In this study, the forecasting is based on 10 years monthly data of Air Pollution Index (API) located in industrial and residential monitoring stations area in Malaysia. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy time series (FTS) and artificial neural network (ANNs) were used as the methods to forecast the API values. The performance of each method is compare using the root mean square error (RMSE). The result shows that the ANNs give the smallest forecasting error to forecast API compared to FTS and ARIMA. Therefore, the ANNs could be consider a reliable approach in early warning system to general public in understanding the air quality status that might effect their health and also in decision making processes for air quality control and management.

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