scholarly journals Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Isaac John
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Negative Effect

This paper aims at examining the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1981 to 2016.The data were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Four macroeconomic variables, namely: money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate were used as independent variables, while market capitalisation (proxy for stock market performance) was employed as the dependent variable. The results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed that all the variables studied were stationary at first difference except money supply which was stationary at second difference. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression results showed that money supply has a significant positive effect; interest rate has a significant negative effect; whereas, exchange rate has a positive but not significant effect and inflation rate has a positive but not statistically significant effect on stock market performance. The cointegration test results disclosed that there exist a long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance. The Granger Causality test results revealed that a unidirectional causality runs from money supply and exchange rate to stock market performance. In conclusion, money supply and interest rate are the true factors influencing stock market performance in Nigeria because they exhibited a significant effect on stock market performance. Whereas, exchange rate and inflation rate indicated a weak (non-significant) effect on stock market performance. Consequently, the recommendations are: monetary policies that favour the supply of money in the economy should be pursued in order to ensure a better performance of the stock market; Interest rate should be relatively low to guarantee a higher performance of the stock market because high interest rate has a significant negative effect on the Nigerian stock market.

scholarly journals Economic Interactions among Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables with Mediating Role of Gold Prices Volatilities: An Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Rukhsana Rasheed ◽  
Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq ◽  
Rabia Anwar ◽  
Mehwish Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

In all emerging economies, one of the most challenging issues for investors is the multifaceted inter-relationship between volatility of gold prices and stock market index. During the COVID-19 sub-periods, gold has shown a strong hedging behavior against stock market performance. The main objective of this study was to quantify the long-run relationship among multiple independent macroeconomic variables (predictors) on stock market index (response variable) using the volatilities of gold prices as a mediator factor. This study applied the descriptive statistics, correlation, t-test and OLS multiple regression Model. The specific data comprised of period 2011-2020 regarding the fluctuations in gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and performance of stock market index has been utilized. The statistical outputs of models showed that exchange rate (Dollar to PKR) was positively affecting the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-100 Index, whereas inflation rate and interest rate were negatively affecting the overall performance of KSE100 index. The findings of this study suggested that to achieve better performance of stock market, relatively low interest rate and inflation rate contribute a significant role. However, to increase the generalization capabilities of this study the impact of mentioned macroeconomic variables in other sectors like industrial production, oil & gas and energy sectors with wider time span can be more helpful.

scholarly journals Determinants of Stock Market Performance

NCC Journal ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-142
Author(s):  
Ramjee Rakhal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Major Objective ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This paper investigates the effect of selected macroeconomic factors viz. remittances, money supply, exchange rate, and interest rate on stock market performance based on literatures available in international and Nepalese context. The major objective of this paper is to find out the new area of research in Nepalese perspective with the help of literature review. The study demonstrates that remittance and money supplypositively affect the stock market whereas interest rate and exchange rate negatively affect the stock market performance. However, there is lack of consensus on the effect of each macroeconomic variables on stock market performance as it has number of literatures available which are similar as well as opposite to these findings. Thus, similar study can be extended employing different methodology with this combination of variables in Nepalese context that may better describe and analyze the performance of Nepalese stock market and helps to reduce the confusion among the literatures.NCC JournalVol. 3, No. 1, 2018, page: 134-142

scholarly journals Do Macroeconomic Variables Affect Stock Market Performance? A Case Study of DSEX and DS30 Index of Dhaka Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Emran Hasan ◽  
Shahanawaz Sharif
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Stock market performance– being the linchpin of an economy, requires variations in policies concerning macroeconomic variables. Keeping this in notion, this research assays the empirical association between stock market performance and a few selected macroeconomic variables namely interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and 91-days Treasury bill rate using monthly data ranging from January 2013 to October 2018. Employing Johansen Cointegration analysis, the results of the study suggest that exchange rate and treasury bill rate are positive whereas interest rate and inflation rate are negatively associated with better stock market performance. Granger causality test implies bidirectional causality – between the interest rate and DS30 as well as DSEX while unidirectional causality is evident for both the indices which are running from interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to stock market performance. Formulation and implementation of prudent policies regarding the studied macroeconomic variables can lead to a healthy stock market outcome.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Sunday Mlanga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

Stock market is an essential part of a nation’s economy and requires adequate evaluation of all factors that militate against its performance. This study investigates the role of macroeconomic variables in determining the stock market performance in Nigeria using annual time series data covering a period from 2009 to 2018. These data have been sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators, International Monetary Fund and CBN Statistical Bulletin. The results from the regression analysis indicate that exchange rate and interest rate do not have significant impact on share price index while inflation rate exerts a significant negative influence on share price index. On the contrary and in line with the concept of GDP and stock market performance, GDP significantly and positively impacts on share price index. The study among others suggests that the growth of the economy should be maintained to keep stock market flourishing while macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate and exchange rate should be appropriately regulated by the relevant authorities to curtail all negative influences on stock market performance.

scholarly journals Determinan Kinerja Pasar Saham Dengan Risk Premium Sebagai Variabel Intervening Pada Bank Indonesia (BI)

2021 ◽  
pp. 66-80
Author(s):  
Silvia Sari ◽  
Lucy Aprelia D ◽  
Lusiana
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Performance Risk ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of interest rate, money supply and inflation rate on stock market performance. This study consists of three independent variables, namely interest rate, money supply and inflation rate. The dependent variable is stock market performance. And one intervening variable risk premium. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression analysis and path analysis. Methods of data collection in this research is to use the internet research to obtain secondary data by accessing the website www.bi.go.id. he results obtained show that there is an effect of interest rate risk premiums. Money supply has no effect on risk premiums. Inflation rate affects the risk premium. And interest rate, money supply, inflation rate together has an effect on the risk premium. Interest rate affects stock market performance. Money supply has no effect on stock market performance. The inflation rate has no effect on stock market performance. Risk premium affects stock market performance. And interest rate, money supply, inflation rate and risk premium affect the stock market performance. Risk premium cannot mediate the effect of interest rates on stock market performance. Risk premium cannot mediate the effect of money supply on stock market performance. Risk premium can mediate the effect of inflation rate on stock market performance.

scholarly journals Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-143
Author(s):  
Ismaila Akanni Yusuf ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen ◽  
Hope Agbonrofo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The study examines the effect of the social and economic indicators on the stock market performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs secondary data from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria using the ordinary least squares as the technique of estimation. Findings show that regarding the economic drivers, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate negatively impact the stock market while only income exerts a positive impact. However, both income and interest rate are significant economic drivers of stock performance. Regarding social drivers, life expectancy, poverty, and population exert a positive impact on stock performance. Similarly, both life expectancy and population are significant social drivers of stock market performance in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities should be cautious in avoiding discretionary policies that might hike the exchange rate; otherwise, the flow of funds to the stock market will be derailed. Also, the fiscal authority should invest massively in safety nets programmes to enhance the capacity of the growing population and reduce poverty.

Macroeconomic Variables and Retained Earnings of Quoted Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria: A Time Variant Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-47
Author(s):  
Ngozi G. Iheduru ◽  
Charles U. Okoro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Retention Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Retained Earnings

This study examined external factors that determine retained earnings of quoted manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Annual time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigerian Statistical Bulletin, and Annual Reports of the selected manufacturing firms, the study modeled retained earnings the function of money supply, exchange rate, oil price, inflation rate and interest rate. The ordinary Least Square method was employed with multiple regression model based on Statistical Package for Social Sciences version (22.0). The Durbin-Watson statistics show the presence of multiple serial autocorrelation.The result shows collinearity that corresponds with the Eigen value condition index and variance constants are less than the required number, while the variance inflation factors indicate the absence of auto-correlation.It was found that Oil price have positive impact on retention rate of the selected manufacturing firms while exchange rate and interest rate have negative impact on the dependent variable. It was also found that   money supply have negative effect on dividend payout rate while inflation rate have positive impact on retention rate. From the findings we conclude that oil price, interest rate, exchange rate and money supply have no significant relationship with dividend policy while inflation rate have significant relationship with dividend policy of the selected quoted manufacturing firms. We recommend the need for the manufacturing firms to formulate policies that leverage the negative effect of macroeconomic variables on retained earnings of the manufacturing firms and interest rate should properly be defined in the Nigerian financial market that is either full deregulated or regulated to determine the market rate of return, investment and the profitability of manufacturing firms. The operational efficiency of Nigerian capital market and the financial environment should be deepened, existing laws that does not encourage profitable investment should be changed and new laws enacted to enhance investment that will affect the profitability of manufacturing firms positively.

scholarly journals Dynamic impact of Gold Prices, Oil Prices and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Performance: A Case of Pakistan’s Stock Exchange (KSE 100 Index)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Asif Ali ◽  
Muhammad Kamran Khan ◽  
Hamid Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Term Relation ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

Currently emerging markets are passing through economic turmoil due to considerable increases in the prices of oil and gold with significant variation in the foreign exchange market. All the macroeconomic variables are touching the highest value which was never occurred in the history of Pakistan. Taking advantages of the current situation the study has examined the impact of gold prices, oil prices and exchange rate on stock market performance. For this purpose, the study has used daily data of these macroeconomic variables for the period of 2003 to 2018. By using time series data analysis, it reveals that there is no co-integration or long-term relation among these variables; however, the vector autoregressive model showed significant short-term relation among the securities market performance, foreign exchange rate, prices of oil and gold. The analysis also suggests that significant changes in the prices of oil, foreign exchange rates and the prices of gold have a negative lagged effect on the performance of the stock market.

scholarly journals Stock Market Reaction to Monetary Policy Modifications: Evidence from an Emergent Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero ◽  
Dorcas Titilayo Adetula ◽  
Kingsley Adeyemo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Harmful Effect ◽  
Stock Market Reaction ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This study evaluates the stock market reaction to monetary policy modifications in an emerging market using Nigeria as a case study.  Due to the crucial role the stock market plays in the global economy and finance, it becomes an attraction for most researchers and policymakers who try to find a basis for its smooth operation.  This study uses data that cover a period from 1998 to 2018 to establish what the position is in recent times empirically. The data are collected on all share index, money supply, interest rate and exchange rate. The multiple regression results provide evidence that the money supply has a significant favourable influence on the all-share index. In contrast, the interest rate has an immaterial harmful effect on the stock market output.  However, the result indicates that the exchange rate affects the stock market performance negatively, but the effect is insignificant. Based on these findings, the study suggests pilot test running of all monetary policy amendments by the monetary authority in the country before full implementation.  The government should encourage the CBN to cut down on interest rate and avoid all policies that will lead to a crash in the Nigerian stock market.   Received: 16 October 2020 / Accepted: 12 February 2021 / Published: 10 May 2021

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