scholarly journals Stability Analysis of Australia’s Wool Exports- A Markov Chain Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain Analysis ◽  
Instability Index ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Chain Analysis ◽  
Australian Wool

The present study is an attempt to analyse growth, instability and direction of trade of wool exports from Australia. Compound Annual Growth Rate, Cuddy-Della Valle Index and Markov chain analysis are the tools used for analysing data from 2008 to 2017. The growth rate of export in terms of quantity is negative and very low (-0.59% per annum) and the growth rate of exports in terms of value is positive (3.99% per annum). The instability index is low (2.78%) for exports in quantity terms and is medium (18.10%) for exports in value terms. China is the most stable market for export of wool from Australia with retention probability of 80.08%. The other reliable importers are Republic of Korea and Czech Republic. The study suggested the need to diversify Australian wool market. 

scholarly journals Export performance and direction of trade of dried apricot from Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-136
Author(s):  
Hasibullah Mushair ◽  
D. Murugananthi ◽  
A. Rohini ◽  
R. Vasanthi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain Analysis ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Chain Analysis

Apricot is one of the most delicious refreshing and nourishing fruits. Afghanistan produces 1.09 lakh tonnes of apricot during 2018 (Afghanistan statistical year book). It is one of the important commodities in export basket of Afghanistan. The major export markets for Afghan dried apricot are India and USA. The present study aims to quantify the export performance and changing structure of dried apricot exports from Afghanistan. Secondary data on area, production and country wise quantity of exports of dried apricot was collected from FAO statistics, ITC and APEDA for a period of 13 years from 2006 to 2018. Compound Annual Growth Rate was computed for studying the trend in area, production, yield, export quantity and export value for dried apricot. Markov chain analysis was attempted to assess the direction of change in exports. Markov chain analysis results showed that, India is the stable market for Afghanistan’s dried apricot and USA is less stable markets India is the main country to import dried apricot in the next five years. It shows high value in terms of quantity and percentage which is more than 50 per cent of all Afghanistan’s dried apricot export.

scholarly journals Export Performance and Trade Direction of Fresh and Dried Grapes (Raisin): Evidence from Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
Hasibullah Mushair ◽  
D. Murugananthi ◽  
A. Rohini
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain Analysis ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Dried Grapes ◽  
Chain Analysis

Grapes are one of the most delicious refreshing and nourishing fruits. Afghanistan produces 9.84 lakhtonnes of Grapes during 2018 (FAO statistics). It is one of the important commodities in the export basket of Afghanistan. The major export markets for Afghan’s fresh grapes are Pakistan and India. The major export markets for dried grapes (raisin) are India, Russia, Belarus, USA, Pakistan and UK. The present study aims to quantify the export performance and changing the structure of Grapes and raisin exports from Afghanistan. Secondary data on area, production and country-wise quantity exports of fresh and dried grapes were collected from FAO statistics, ITC and APEDA for a period of 13 years from 2006 to 2018. Compound Annual Growth Rate was computed for studying the trend in the area, production, yield, export quantity and export value for fresh and dried (raisin) grapes. Markov chain analysis was attempted to assess the direction of change in exports. Markov chain analysis results showed that Pakistan is the stable market for Afghan fresh Grapes and India and France are less stable markets. The major reasons are a geographical advantage for Pakistan which gave a competitive advantage over other countries concerning fresh grapes. India, Russia and Pakistan are stable markets for dried grapes and USA, UK, Germany and Belarus are less stable markets. India is the main country to import dried grapes (raisin) in the next five years. It shows a high value in terms of quantity and percentage which is more than 50 percent of all Afghanistan's dried grapes (raisin) export.

Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Coconut in India and Tamil Nadu, Western Tamil Nadu, India: A Time Series Comparative Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
K. Kalidas ◽  
K. Mahendran ◽  
K. Akila
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Instability Index ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate

The study was undertaken to know the growth rate, instability, and contribution of area and yield on the production of coconut. The study was based on the secondary data for the period of 19 years (2001 – 2019) for India as well as Tamil Nadu. India is the leading producer of coconut globally 21.38 billion nuts and in the country, Tamil Nadu has the major share in area and production with 5.31 billion nuts. The pace of agricultural development of the country can be estimated through compound annual growth rate, instability is measured using Coppocks instability index and contribution of area and yield on production is studied using decomposition analysis. Results revealed that coconut growth is found to be positive in India as well as in Tamil Nadu, the production of coconut in the country is significantly positive (0.74 percent), but in the state, it is in decline trend (2.48 percent). The trend of productivity seems positive and similar at both the country and state level. Instability index is higher in terms of area (12.71 percent) than production (2.86 percent) and productivity (2.89 percent). Area effect was most responsible (138.2 percent  and 98.3 percent) for the production of coconut than yield effect in both the country as well as the state.

scholarly journals Temporal Dynamics of Rice Production and Import in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 97-108
Author(s):  
Samaya Gairhe ◽  
Devendra Gauchan ◽  
Krishna Prasad Timsina
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Aromatic Rice ◽  
Markov Chain Analysis ◽  
Chain Analysis

Rice is a principal food crop for ensuring national food security and improving the livelihoods of the people in Nepal. To understand and analyse temporal dynamics of rice production and import, a study was carried out by using secondary data during the period from 2009 to 2018. The objectives of the study were to analyses temporal changes and dynamics of rice production and import in Nepal. The study used  Compound growth rate and Markov chain analysis to assess the pattern of temporal changes in  production and import of rice in Nepal for the last one decade. The synthesis of the analysis is presented in both tabular and graphic forms. The results revealed that Nepal is importing rice in increasing trend and not being able to meet national demands despite some increase in rice production and productivity in the last decade. Imports of rice were found in four harmonized system codes from 18 countries and the value of rice import is mounting in recent years. In addition, Compound growth rate analysis showed that the rice import quantity and value were increasing at the rate of 24.48 and 38.11 percent per annum respectively, while production growth was hovering below less than 2% per annum. The higher growth rate of value than quantity showed that mainly import is concentrated on fine and aromatic rice. Further, the study also reveals the direction of trade using Markov chain analysis, which shows that among selected countries, two countries India and the USA were more stable rice exporters to Nepal while China, Thailand, and Italy were less stable. The study implies that import substitution can be done by increasing productivity with  increase use of high yielding hybrids and fine and aromatic rice.

scholarly journals Shallow seismicity in the area of Greece: its character as seen by means of a stochastic model

1995 ◽  
Vol 2 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 136-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. C. Polimenakos
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Chain Analysis ◽  
Order Markov Chain ◽  
Occurrence Pattern ◽  
Of Greece

Abstract. Occurrence of successive earthquake events in space is analysed by means of semi-stochastic processes. The analysis employs earthquakes events with M > 5.2 from the area of Greece and its surroundings (18-31° E, 34-43° N) for the time interval 1911-1985. The sequence of earthquake occurrences can be only marginally described by a first order Markov chain model. Substitutability analysis incorporates the results of Markov Chains, revealing, though, detailed interrelations of parts (subareas) of the study area, not appreciated in Markov Chain analysis. Reactivation of particular subareas provides an insight into the level of interaction between neighbouring seismogenic sources within a subarea. The earthquake occurrence pattern provides evidence for the effect of a significant stress diffusion through time in the sense of a stress front. Taking into account the limitations of the methodologies applied, results indicate the importance of large-scale monitoring of seismicity, which assist in the identification of particular characteristics of the earthquake occurrence in space and time.

scholarly journals Structural Changes in Basmati Rice Exports from India: A Markov Chain Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailza S
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Basmati Rice ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Markov Chain Analysis ◽  
Chain Analysis ◽  
Wide Range

Basmati rice is considered a “strategic“ agricultural export commodity from India and has consequently remained subject to a wide range of government interventions. Basmati rice is exported from India to many countries, especially to the Gulf and European countries. A steady increase in Bbasmati rice production, availability of buffer stocks, and growing demand for basmati rice in the international market made India a vital rice exporting country of the world. The present study explored the structural changes in basmati rice exports from India from 1991 to 2020. The stability in the importing partners of basmati rice from India was analyzed using first-order Markov chain analysis. The compound annual growth rate for the export quantity of basmati rice varied from 5.74 to 12.65 percent per annum. In contrast, the export value of basmati rice ranged between 4.40 to 21.06 percent per annum during the three selected decades. Further, the basmati rice export value showed higher instability than export quantity. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates served to be the stable importers. In contrast, the United States and the United Kingdom served as the most unstable markets for Indian basmati rice according to the transitional probability matrix. Therefore, to reduce variability in exports of basmati rice, India should maintain long-term stable trading partners further to increase the export earnings.

scholarly journals Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Nutri Cereals in Tamil Nadu

2021 ◽  
pp. 86-90
Author(s):  
T. Nivetha ◽  
K. Uma
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interaction Effect ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Instability Index ◽  
Compound Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Area Effect

Aim: The study was undertaken to know the growth rate, instability, and contribution of area and yield on the production of Nutri cereals. Place and Duration: The study was based on the secondary data for the period of 20 years (2001- 2020) for Tamil Nadu. Data has been collected from Agricultural statistics at a glance (2020), Season and Crop report (2020). Methodology: The growth rate of Nutri cereals can be estimated through compound annual growth rate, instability is measured using Coppock’s instability index and contribution of area and yield on production is studied using decomposition analysis. Results: Results revealed that Nutri cereals growth rate is found to be negative in first decade and positive in second decade Production of Nutri cereals in both the decades found positive in decline trend. The trend of productivity seems positive for both the decades at declining rate. Instability index is higher in terms of production than area and productivity. Area effect was most responsible for the production of Nutri cereals than yield and interaction effect. Conclusion: The area effect is more responsible for production of Nutri cereals. Area effect on production of Nutri cereals is high, hence government should intervene in this regard to improve the area of Nutri cereals cultivation.

An Efficient Markov Chain Model for the Simulation of Heterogeneous Soil Structure

2004 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keijan Wu ◽  
Naoise Nunan ◽  
John W. Crawford ◽  
Iain M. Young ◽  
Karl Ritz
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Soil Structure ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Soil

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

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