ROBERTSON’S INDUSTRIAL FLUCTUATION (1915): AN EARLY REAL BUSINESS CYCLE-LIKE APPROACH

This paper re-examines Dennis Robertson’s ‘real’ business cycle (RBC) theory outlined in his 1915 A Study in Industrial Fluctuation. Even if, for Robertson, cycles find their origin and respond to oscillations in entrepreneurs’ “rational inducement” to invest, in opposition to RBC models in which every outcome is by construction an equilibrium outcome, Robertson discusses in a traditional way the short-run consequences of such exogenous technological shocks. There are no intertemporal equilibrium phenomena in the sense of the RBC approach; cycle theory is organized, for Robertson, around a Marshallian-defined center of gravity (or long-run equilibrium state of rest). For him, the real forces are represented by the gestation period of investment, but also by investment’s durability, its imperfect divisibility, and, allied with these, its intractability. These features of investment lead to excessive outlays upon capital investment, which ultimately depresses their marginal productivity. The inevitable and rational result is a downturn in the capital goods industries and the onset of a cycle.

THE RICH AND THE POOR IN A SIMPLE MODEL OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

We consider a model of economic growth with altruistic agents who care about their consumption and the disposable income of their offspring. The agents' consumption and the offspring's disposable income are subject to positional concerns. We show that, if the measure of consumption-related positional concerns is sufficiently low and/or the measure of offspring-related positional concerns is sufficiently high, then there is a unique steady-state equilibrium, which is characterized by perfect income and wealth equality, and all intertemporal equilibira converge to it. Otherwise, in steady-state equilibria, the population splits into two classes, the rich and the poor; under this scenario, in any intertemporal equilibrium, all capital is eventually owned by the households that were the wealthiest from the outset and all other households become poor.